UK General Election 2019 - Election Day and Results Thread

[Lord Halifax]

Turnout hasn't often borne much correlation to how well Tories or Labour do - for instance, turnout was consistently higher during the Thatcher & Major years than the Blair-Brown ones. It also - before the more recent elections - tended to be higher in Conservative seats than in Labour areas, and the highest-turnout election in modern times (1992) saw the Tories - not Labour - do much better than polls expected.

How would those Labour voters who stayed home in previously loyal constituencies have voted? No way to know, of course, but the idea that Labour was defeated by low turnout or 'suppressed votes' (who exactly was doing the suppressing?) I just don't find believable. Certainly the opinion polls pointed almost exactly to yesterday's outcome, so it seems unlikely that turnout rates disproportionately benefited one side or the other.

Its not true that there is "no" relation. Low turnouts *tend* to favour the Tories and always have done whereas higher ones mean the pro-Labour demographics tend to vote in bigger numbers. Though a qualifier here is that *very* high turnouts tend to favour the right again - in the 1992 GE as you say and also the 2016 EU referendum (*may* have helped "no" in the 2014 ScotIndy vote as well)

Why is that? Who are the people that vote in very high turnout elections and not in "ordinary" high turnout elections?

[Clyde1998]

2nd place finishes by winning party
Great Britain

1st/2nd	Con	Lab	Lib	Brx	Grn	SNP	PC	Oth
Conservative (365)	NA	275	80	0	0	6	0	4
Labour (202)	186	NA	9	3	2	1	0	1
SNP (48)	20	26	2	0	0	NA	NA	0
Lib Dem (11)	7	NA	0	0	0	4	0	0
Plaid Cymru (4)	3	1	0	0	0	NA	NA	0
Green (1)	0	1	0	0	NA	0	0	0
Speaker (1)	NA	NA	NA	NA	0	NA	NA	1
Total (632)	216	303	91	3	2	11	0	6

Northern Ireland

1st/2nd	DUP	SF	SDLP	UUP	APNI	PBP
DUP (8)	NA	1	1	2	4	0
Sinn Fein (7)	4	NA	1	1	0	1
SDLP (2)	1	1	NA	0	0	0
Alliance (1)	1	0	0	0	NA	0
Total (18)	6	2	2	3	4	1

[politicallefty]

My parents and sister voted Conservative largely for that reason; also a dislike of Corbyn. I think my parents usually vote Conservative anyway, but may have voted Lib Dem in the past (my constituency was a Con-Lib marginal in the 2000s), while my sister voted Lib Dem at the last two elections as an anti-Conservative vote, IIRC, but was massively put off by their revoke policy and wanted closure to the Brexit process. She also said that she couldn't work out what Labour's policy actually was on Brexit - not knowing if they actually wanted to go ahead with it or they were attempting to cover up that they actually supported remaining.

Incidentally, the Ashcroft poll included a question about how people would've voted if Brexit wasn't an issue - coming out as:

Con: 42% (-3); 353 seats (-12)
Lab: 33% (nc); 209 seats (+7)
SNP: 4% (nc); 47 seats (-1)
Lib: 12% (nc); 16 seats (+5)
PC: 1% (nc); 4 seats (nc)
Grn: 5% (+2); 1 seat (nc)
Brx: 2% (nc); 0 seats (nc)
Oth: 2% (+1); 2 seats (+1)

Ah, thanks, always interesting to hear from a first-hand account. But yeah, it doesn't surprise me in the least. That was another problem under Corbyn's leadership. Labour was too wishy-washy on Brexit when it came to actually having a position. It's different when you're voting in Parliament against particular deals. It's quite another when the only articulated position is to just vote again and everything a 2nd referendum would entail. If you don't mind me asking, what constituency or region are your parents and sister from (when you say Con-Lib marginal, my mind seems to automatically go to the Southwest)?

I'm not sure if I buy that part of the poll entirely. It's so hard to remove Brexit from the minds of voters, even when asked. It's like telling someone not to think about something that you specifically tell them not to think about something (I remember that from my Psych class tbh). There's also a bit of a butterfly effect too. If Brexit were never an issue, Cameron would still be PM and elections would be 5 months away. Everyone seems to want to hate Theresa May, but this was all set in motion by David Cameron.

[parochial boy]

Incidentally, and usual caveats about this sort of data, Ipsos Mori had the cross break for 18-24 year olds in 2010 as
Conservatives - 31%
Labour -  30%
Lib Dem - 30%

The same cohort now make up the bulk of this year's 25-34 year olds. So for them to swing (probably lots of Lib Dem deserters, and lots 2010 non-voters) to 55%-23% in favour of Labour this year suggests that something has happened over the last 10 years to radicalise them.

Same story with 2010's 25-34 year olds. That cohort has gone from a 5% Tory lead to a 15% Labour one. This isn't exactly people getting Conservative as they get older.

[politicallefty]

Incidentally, and usual caveats about this sort of data, Ipsos Mori had the cross break for 18-24 year olds in 2010 as
Conservatives - 31%
Labour -  30%
Lib Dem - 30%

The same cohort now make up the bulk of this year's 25-34 year olds. So for them to swing (probably lots of Lib Dem deserters, and lots 2010 non-voters) to 55%-23% in favour of Labour this year suggests that something has happened over the last 10 years to radicalise them.

Same story with 2010's 25-34 year olds. That cohort has gone from a 5% Tory lead to a 15% Labour one. This isn't exactly people getting Conservative as they get older.

I have to wonder if the coalition deal hasn't compromised the Lib Dems for at least a generation, maybe permanently. (We all know the sayings about making a deal with the devil.) They've had a decent recovery in the popular vote since their 2015 cataclysm, but their seat total has hardly moved.

[Silent Hunter]

Swinson had to spend a lot of time defending/apologising for her time as a minister then. If the Lib Dems elect Layla Moran, they'll be able to repudiate that a lot more easily.

As for the 25-34 year olds; they went to university with the introduction and increase of tuition fees; many are still paying them off. Labour promised to abolish them.

[CumbrianLefty]

Bbc reporting that Labor northern  parliamentary party want Lisa Nandy to run or Yvette Cooper (both northern heartlands) Anyone from London won’t work to retain loses.

Are Lisa Nandy or Yvette Cooper credible opposition?

Nandy had a decent result this time in the circs, Cooper (generally very overrated anyway) didn't.

And arguably Angela Rayner "ticks those boxes" better than either of them.

[Silent Hunter]

Momentum will probably ensure that someone like Richard Burgon gets in... which means the antisemitism stuff won't go away either.

[CumbrianLefty]

There is really not the slightest chance of Burgon winning, this is not serious commentary.

[Silent Hunter]

There is really not the slightest chance of Burgon winning, this is not serious commentary.

Someone like Burgon. Or definitely a Corbynite.

[adma]

In the name of making the rudest post in this thread, both Penistone and Sc*nthorpe flipped Lab-to-Tory.

[CumbrianLefty]

There is really not the slightest chance of Burgon winning, this is not serious commentary.

Someone like Burgon. Or definitely a Corbynite.

"Corbynites" arguably come in more than one flavour (does Rayner count as one, for example? It depends)

[jaichind]

Amazing how if only 18-24 olds voted the CON would win 0 seats.

[Oryxslayer]

Incidentally, and usual caveats about this sort of data, Ipsos Mori had the cross break for 18-24 year olds in 2010 as
Conservatives - 31%
Labour -  30%
Lib Dem - 30%

The same cohort now make up the bulk of this year's 25-34 year olds. So for them to swing (probably lots of Lib Dem deserters, and lots 2010 non-voters) to 55%-23% in favour of Labour this year suggests that something has happened over the last 10 years to radicalise them.

Same story with 2010's 25-34 year olds. That cohort has gone from a 5% Tory lead to a 15% Labour one. This isn't exactly people getting Conservative as they get older.

Well, pre-2010 the Libs were the student party. In part this was because Labour was the government and the Lib-Dem brand is always 'Not Con' or 'Not Lab' at it's heart. However, being vocally anti-War just like the party is vocally anti-Brexit now led to the Lib-Dems doing well with the youth. This is why them flipping on tuition fees is still remembered to this day - it was a betrayal of the  student base, a base which has now in the 24-35 group.

So these voters were likely just as left as now, they just liked the Lib-Dems at the time.

[DistingFlyer]

Here's a a map showing the margins for Remain or Leave in the 2016 vote:



And here (again) are the regional swings in Thursday's vote:




Not that anyone has disputed the connection between these two things, of course - just another piece of visual confirmation.

[Keep Calm and ...]

Amazing how if only 18-24 olds voted the CON would win 0 seats.

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1205821623909175297

[Crumpets]

So random question for anyone who knows, and apologies if this has already been discussed: What is the story behind North East Fife flipping from SNP to Lib Dem? Asking solely because I'm considering St. Andrews for grad school.

[CumbrianLefty]

Well, part of it is that the Nats only won it by 2 votes last time

[Donerail]

Well, part of it is that the Nats only won it by 2 votes last time

It's kind of a funny result — you have to wonder if the SNP won by 27, or 85, or 163, if they wouldn't have kept the seat this time around. If "unionist tactical voting" is a thing, seems like it would've happened in the one place where "only by 2 votes over the Lib Dems" might have stuck in voters' minds.

[Oryxslayer]

The lib-Dems also did well in Scotland overall, just like polls expected. Their vote rose, just like the SNP's. Caithness for instance would have gone yellow if the SNP had rose and everyone else stagnated or fell. The Lib-Dem rise  in Scotland just like in England was concentrated in their target seats, like usual for the party, and NE Fife was one of those targets.

The personal backlash to Swinson in Dunbartonshire just stands out so fiercely that it overshadows the rest of the parties decent Scottish results.

[DistingFlyer]

Constituency-wide swings:




Again, a pretty good correlation to how they voted in the referendum three years ago - note that the only Scottish constituency estimated to have voted 'Leave' is also the only one to record a pro-Tory swing.

[jaichind]

In Guildford it seems Anne Milton performed one last favor to her former party to taking enough most likely Remain votes to keep the seat CON despite a surge of support for LDEM.

[Oryxslayer]

I know the map is more hypothetical. I understand that not every Lib-Dem would go for Labour, not every Brexit voter for the Tories, and especially not every Lab or Lib voter for the SNP. However, such a map is interesting because the opposition fails to pick up some of their northern losses - they actually lose some more in certain areas. Instead, it's southern and more  urban seats where the tory majority is are reduced.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

County Durham (2005-2019)

That's the administrative county from the mid 70s to mid 90s, rather than the historical county (the only one people identify with lol) or the present administrative boundaries, both of which 'voted' Labour. But still utterly pathetic and beyond embarrassing.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

AB - Higher & intermediate managerial, administrative, professional occupations
C1 - Supervisory, clerical & junior managerial, administrative, professional occupations
C2 - Skilled manual occupations
DE - Semi-skilled & unskilled manual occupations, Long-term unemployed and lowest grade occupations

In theory that's what they stand for, in practice they were never very good even in the 1970s and now are a notorious joke. The C categories especially are just random lists of occupations without much obvious linkage (e.g. nursing is C1, most farmers are C2 etc). It is famously just about impossible to get a balanced C2 sample, for instance, and only a minority of people 'graded' that way are now actually skilled manual workers.