UK General Election 2019 - Election Day and Results Thread

[jaichind]

Out of the 33 seats the CON lost to LAB or LDEM in 2017, CON recaptured 15 of them.
18 of those 33 seats voted 50% or above for Brexit in 2016: The CON win rate is 13-5 with one of its losses (Beford) being very close.
15 of those 33 seats voted below 50% for Brexit in 2016: The CON win rate is 2-13 with one of the CON victories (Kensington) won due to bad vote coordination between LAB and LDEM.

Of the 5 seats that CON won from LAB in 2017 the total vote shares in those 5 seats in 2017 and 2019 are

             CON      LAB
2017     48.8%   45.2%
2019     61.3%   32.6%

[adma]

County Durham (2005-2019)

That's the administrative county from the mid 70s to mid 90s, rather than the historical county (the only one people identify with lol) or the present administrative boundaries, both of which 'voted' Labour. But still utterly pathetic and beyond embarrassing.

I mean, who would have thought that the combined Tory and Brexit vote would outpoll Labour in *Easington*, of all places (by 163 votes!)

Incidentally, getting away from Durham, I'm wondering why the Barnsley seats are the only ones where Brexit became a second-place marginal force, ahead of the Tories.

(And *Hull East* becoming supermarginal...wow.)

[Kyng]

Second-placed party in each constituency in 2019 (which I spent way too long putting together):
https://i.imgur.com/AztYy18.png

For comparison, here's the equivalent 2017 map (which I just found on the internet, instead of doing myself ):
https://www.ukelect.co.uk/20170608GenElection/UK2ndPlaceF.jpg

The north basically just has red where the Tories won, and blue where Labour won. However, in the south, there's a bunch of Lib Dems in second place (more than there were in 2017, which is probably the one piece of good news they take from what was otherwise an awful election for them). The SNP have fewer (simply because they won more seats), and, surprisingly, Plaid Cymru don't have any.

There are also three for the Brexit Party (Barnsley Central, Barnsley East, Blaenau Gwent), two for the Greens (Bristol West, Dulwich and West Norwood), and several local oddities with independents.

[Oryxslayer]

I also had the data and Blaenau Gwent stuck out as odd to me. Was there a prominent local candidate there? Or was Wales doing it's odd thing where it loves Labour (Westminster), but keeps sending electoral signals their way (Local elections, EU elections/Brexit, Welsh assembly) that they want Labour to seriously address Welsh foundational instability.

[Clyde1998]

My parents and sister voted Conservative largely for that reason; also a dislike of Corbyn. I think my parents usually vote Conservative anyway, but may have voted Lib Dem in the past (my constituency was a Con-Lib marginal in the 2000s), while my sister voted Lib Dem at the last two elections as an anti-Conservative vote, IIRC, but was massively put off by their revoke policy and wanted closure to the Brexit process. She also said that she couldn't work out what Labour's policy actually was on Brexit - not knowing if they actually wanted to go ahead with it or they were attempting to cover up that they actually supported remaining.

Incidentally, the Ashcroft poll included a question about how people would've voted if Brexit wasn't an issue - coming out as:

Con: 42% (-3); 353 seats (-12)
Lab: 33% (nc); 209 seats (+7)
SNP: 4% (nc); 47 seats (-1)
Lib: 12% (nc); 16 seats (+5)
PC: 1% (nc); 4 seats (nc)
Grn: 5% (+2); 1 seat (nc)
Brx: 2% (nc); 0 seats (nc)
Oth: 2% (+1); 2 seats (+1)

Ah, thanks, always interesting to hear from a first-hand account. But yeah, it doesn't surprise me in the least. That was another problem under Corbyn's leadership. Labour was too wishy-washy on Brexit when it came to actually having a position. It's different when you're voting in Parliament against particular deals. It's quite another when the only articulated position is to just vote again and everything a 2nd referendum would entail. If you don't mind me asking, what constituency or region are your parents and sister from (when you say Con-Lib marginal, my mind seems to automatically go to the Southwest)?

I'm not sure if I buy that part of the poll entirely. It's so hard to remove Brexit from the minds of voters, even when asked. It's like telling someone not to think about something that you specifically tell them not to think about something (I remember that from my Psych class tbh). There's also a bit of a butterfly effect too. If Brexit were never an issue, Cameron would still be PM and elections would be 5 months away. Everyone seems to want to hate Theresa May, but this was all set in motion by David Cameron.

We're in Newbury (South Central). It's not marginal at the moment, following the Lib Dem collapse in 2015, however the result this year was almost identical to the 2010 result - albeit with Others up about 3% - despite the Lib Dems being on a much lower vote share and the Conservatives on a higher vote share.

That part of the poll is probably not accurate for the reasons you state; people are quite bad at answering hypothetical questions too. We'd be in a very different political context without Brexit, the issues would be different, Cameron would probably still be PM, Farron would probably still be Lib Dem leader and UKIP would probably still be relevant.

[Clyde1998]

I also had the data and Blaenau Gwent stuck out as odd to me. Was there a prominent local candidate there? Or was Wales doing it's odd thing where it loves Labour (Westminster), but keeps sending electoral signals their way (Local elections, EU elections/Brexit, Welsh assembly) that they want Labour to seriously address Welsh foundational instability.

South Wales is probably similar to Barnsley in the sense that a large amount of people wouldn't consider voting Conservative as a result of Conservative actions there in the past, but have a enough people that feel strongly enough about Brexit to give the Brexit Party quite a strong vote instead.

[Clyde1998]

Amazing how if only 18-24 olds voted the CON would win 0 seats.

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1205821623909175297

I thought I'd seen those maps before.

Also, those maps appear to be done on uniform swing, without taking into account the actual levels of support for Labour in those seats. A lot of seats shown as Labour on the 18-24 year old map would actually be Lib Dem, Green, SNP/PC or Conservative, the reverse being true for the older age groups. Labour aren't winning places like Brecon & Radnorshire or West Dorest even among 18-24 year olds, IMO.

[Clyde1998]

There were 135 seats in GB with a majority of less than 10% at this election.

Con: 69 (2nd: Lab 50, Lib 13, SNP 6)
Lab: 47 (2nd: Con 44, Brx 2, Lib 1)
SNP: 13 (2nd: Con 8, Lab 4, Lib 1)
Lib: 4 (2nd: SNP 3, Con 1)
PC: 2 (2nd: Con 1, Lab 1)

In marginal seats from last time, the vote shares were:

England & Wales (116 seats)
Con 48.0% (+3.9)
Lab 35.6% (-6.3)
Lib 11.2% (+2.2)
Grn 1.6% (+0.6)
Brx 1.6% (-0.1 on UKIP)
PC 1.1% (n/c)

The Conservative vote was up more than the national average, but the Labour vote held up better than average. The Lib Dems and Greens were weaker than average in these seats.

Scotland (46 seats)
SNP 45.6% (+8.1)
Con 24.1% (-3.5)
Lab 19.9% (-8.5)
Lib 8.6% (+2.9)
Grn 1.2% (+0.9)
Brx 0.4% (+0.2 on UKIP)

Basically every seat in Scotland was marginal in 2017, so the changes are basically the same as the national average.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I also had the data and Blaenau Gwent stuck out as odd to me. Was there a prominent local candidate there? Or was Wales doing it's odd thing where it loves Labour (Westminster), but keeps sending electoral signals their way (Local elections, EU elections/Brexit, Welsh assembly) that they want Labour to seriously address Welsh foundational instability.

That is the constituency (a long time ago) of Michael Foot and (part of it, even longer ago: ages away by this point) Aneurin Bevan and used to be the safest Labour seat in Great Britain.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Incidentally, getting away from Durham, I'm wondering why the Barnsley seats are the only ones where Brexit became a second-place marginal force, ahead of the Tories.

They threw the kitchen sink at the place. Might be interesting to see the campaign spending figures there, actually.

[adma]

I think of BG as more of a luck-of-the-draw bottom-feeding Brexit 2nd--particularly as the margin's 3 times the size of the Barnsleys...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think of BG as more of a luck-of-the-draw bottom-feeding Brexit 2nd--particularly as the margin's 3 times the size of the Barnsleys...

Of course one thing to note is that Welsh Labour is organisationally separate and has the freedom for something of an image of its own, one that is more 'Labour', so to speak. And so some of the sort of Labour supporters who might not have been able to bring themselves to vote for the party in present form elsewhere were able to do so there. Though the hysterically awful Scottish results show the flipside of that.

[kcguy]

I was curious, so I decided to list the popular vote rankings of every party getting >10% in an election since WWII:

49.7  Eden (1955)                          36.9  Callaghan (1979)
49.4  Macmillan (1959)                   36.9  Cameron (2015)
48.8  Attlee (1951)                          36.2  Churchill (1945)
48.0  Wilson (1966)                         36.1  Cameron (2010)
48.0  Churchill (1951)                    35.8  Heath (Oct 1974)
47.7  Attlee (1945)                          35.2  Blair (2005)
46.4  Heath (1970)                        34.4  Kinnock (1992)
46.4  Attlee (1955)                          32.4  Howard (2005)
46.1  Attlee (1950)                          32.1  Corbyn (2019)
44.1  Wilson (1964)                         31.7  Hague (2001)
43.9  Thatcher (1979)                    30.8  Kinnock (1987)
43.8  Gaitskell (1959)                      30.7  Major (1997)
43.6  Johnson (2019)                     30.4  Miliband (2015)
43.4  Churchill (1950)                    29.0  Brown (2010)
43.4  Douglas-Home (1964)           27.6  Foot (1983)
43.2  Blair (1997)                           25.4  Steel & Jenkins (1983)
43.1  Wilson (1970)                       23.0  Clegg (2010)
42.4  Thatcher (1983)                  22.6  Steel & Owen (1987)
42.4  May (2017)                         22.0  Kennedy (2005)
42.2  Thatcher (1987)                  19.3  Thorpe (Feb 1974)
41.9  Major (1992)                      18.3  Thorpe (Oct 1974)
41.9  Heath (1966)                      18.3  Kennedy (2001)
40.7  Blair (2001)                         17.8  Ashdown (1992)
40.0  Corbyn (2017)                     16.8  Ashdown (1997)
39.2  Wilson (Oct 1974)                13.8  Steel (1979)
37.9  Heath (Feb 1974)               11.6  Swinson (2019)
37.2  Wilson (Feb 1974)                11.2  Grimond (1964)

[brucejoel99]

I was curious, so I decided to list the popular vote rankings of every party getting >10% in an election since WWII:

49.7  Eden (1955)                          36.9  Callaghan (1979)
49.4  Macmillan (1959)                   36.9  Cameron (2015)
48.8  Attlee (1951)                          36.2  Churchill (1945)
48.0  Wilson (1966)                         36.1  Cameron (2010)
48.0  Churchill (1951)                    35.8  Heath (Oct 1974)
47.7  Attlee (1945)                          35.2  Blair (2005)
46.4  Heath (1970)                        34.4  Kinnock (1992)
46.4  Attlee (1955)                          32.4  Howard (2005)
46.1  Attlee (1950)                          32.1  Corbyn (2019)
44.1  Wilson (1964)                         31.7  Hague (2001)
43.9  Thatcher (1979)                    30.8  Kinnock (1987)
43.8  Gaitskell (1959)                      30.7  Major (1997)
43.6  Johnson (2019)                     30.4  Miliband (2015)
43.4  Churchill (1950)                    29.0  Brown (2010)
43.4  Douglas-Home (1964)           27.6  Foot (1983)
43.2  Blair (1997)                           25.4  Steel & Jenkins (1983)
43.1  Wilson (1970)                       23.0  Clegg (2010)
42.4  Thatcher (1983)                  22.6  Steel & Owen (1987)
42.4  May (2017)                         22.0  Kennedy (2005)
42.2  Thatcher (1987)                  19.3  Thorpe (Feb 1974)
41.9  Major (1992)                      18.3  Thorpe (Oct 1974)
41.9  Heath (1966)                      18.3  Kennedy (2001)
40.7  Blair (2001)                         17.8  Ashdown (1992)
40.0  Corbyn (2017)                     16.8  Ashdown (1997)
39.2  Wilson (Oct 1974)                13.8  Steel (1979)
37.9  Heath (Feb 1974)               11.6  Swinson (2019)
37.2  Wilson (Feb 1974)                11.2  Grimond (1964)

12.6 Farage (2015)

[Clyde1998]

I was curious, so I decided to list the popular vote rankings of every party getting >10% in an election since WWII:

49.7  Eden (1955)                          36.9  Callaghan (1979)
49.4  Macmillan (1959)                   36.9  Cameron (2015)
48.8  Attlee (1951)                          36.2  Churchill (1945)
48.0  Wilson (1966)                         36.1  Cameron (2010)
48.0  Churchill (1951)                    35.8  Heath (Oct 1974)
47.7  Attlee (1945)                          35.2  Blair (2005)
46.4  Heath (1970)                        34.4  Kinnock (1992)
46.4  Attlee (1955)                          32.4  Howard (2005)
46.1  Attlee (1950)                          32.1  Corbyn (2019)
44.1  Wilson (1964)                         31.7  Hague (2001)
43.9  Thatcher (1979)                    30.8  Kinnock (1987)
43.8  Gaitskell (1959)                      30.7  Major (1997)
43.6  Johnson (2019)                     30.4  Miliband (2015)
43.4  Churchill (1950)                    29.0  Brown (2010)
43.4  Douglas-Home (1964)           27.6  Foot (1983)
43.2  Blair (1997)                           25.4  Steel & Jenkins (1983)
43.1  Wilson (1970)                       23.0  Clegg (2010)
42.4  Thatcher (1983)                  22.6  Steel & Owen (1987)
42.4  May (2017)                         22.0  Kennedy (2005)
42.2  Thatcher (1987)                  19.3  Thorpe (Feb 1974)
41.9  Major (1992)                      18.3  Thorpe (Oct 1974)
41.9  Heath (1966)                      18.3  Kennedy (2001)
40.7  Blair (2001)                         17.8  Ashdown (1992)
40.0  Corbyn (2017)                     16.8  Ashdown (1997)
39.2  Wilson (Oct 1974)                13.8  Steel (1979)
37.9  Heath (Feb 1974)               11.6  Swinson (2019)
37.2  Wilson (Feb 1974)                11.2  Grimond (1964)

Here's the same thing but just in Scotland (where there's a separate Scottish leader, they're also shown):

50.1	Eden/Stuart (Con/Unionist; 1955)	30.4	Wolfe (SNP; Oct 1974)
50.0	Sturgeon (SNP; 2015)	28.6	May/Davidson (Con; 2017)
49.9	Wilson (Lab; 1966)	28.4	Thatcher (Con; 1983)
48.7	Wilson (Lab; 1964)	27.1	Corbyn/Dugdale (Lab; 2017)
48.6	Churchill/Stuart (Con/Unionist; 1951)	25.6	Major (Con; 1992)
47.9	Attlee (Lab; 1951)	25.1	Johnson/Carlaw (Con; 2019)
47.9	Attlee (Lab; 1945)	24.7	Heath (Con; Oct 1974)
47.2	Macmillian/Stuart (Con/Unionist; 1959)	24.5	Steel & Jenkins/Johnston (Lib-SDP; 1983)
46.7	Attlee (Lab; 1955)	24.3	Miliband/Murphy (Lab; 2015)
46.7	Gaitskell (Lab; 1959)	24.0	Thatcher (Con; 1987)
46.2	Attlee (Lab; 1950)	22.6	Kennedy/Wallace (LD; 2005)
45.6	Blair (Lab; 1997)	22.1	Salmond (SNP; 1997)
45.0	Sturgeon (SNP; 2019)	21.9	Wolfe (SNP; Feb 1974)
44.8	Churchill/Stuart (Con/Unionist; 1950)	21.5	Salmond (SNP; 1992)
44.5	Wilson (Lab; 1970)	21.1	Salmond (SNP; 2005)
43.2	Blair/McLeish (Lab; 2001)	20.1	Swinney (SNP; 2001)
42.4	Kinnock (Lab; 1987)	19.9	Salmond (SNP; 2010)
42.0	Brown/Gray (Lab; 2010)	19.2	Steel & Owen/Johnston (Lib-SDP; 1987)
41.5	Callaghan (Lab; 1979)	18.9	Clegg/Scott (LD; 2010)
40.6	Douglas-Home/George (Con/Unionist; 1964)	18.6	Corbyn/Leonard (Lab; 2019)
40.3	Churchill/Craik-Henderson (Con/Unionist; 1945)	17.5	Major/McLetchie (Con; 1997)
39.5	Blair/McConnell (Lab; 2005)	17.3	Wolfe (SNP; 1979)
39.0	Kinnock (Lab; 1992)	16.7	Cameron/Goldie (Con; 2010)
38.0	Heath (Con; 1970)	16.3	Kennedy/Wallace (LD; 2001)
37.6	Heath/Gilmour (Con/Unionist; 1966)	15.8	Howard/McLetchie (Con; 2005)
36.9	Sturgeon (SNP; 2017)	15.6	Hague/McLetchie (Con; 2001)
36.6	Wilson (Lab; Feb 1974)	14.9	Cameron/Davidson (Con; 2015)
36.3	Wilson (Lab; Oct 1974)	14.0	Wilson (SNP; 1987)
35.1	Foot (Lab; 1983)	13.1	Ashdown/Bruce (LD; 1992)
32.9	Heath (Con; Feb 1974)	13.0	Ashdown/Wallace (LD; 1997)
31.4	Thatcher (Con; 1979)	11.8	Wilson (SNP; 1983)

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Amazing that Blair got a comfortable majority in 2005 with 13.6% less of the vote than Attlee's defeat in 1951.

[Clyde1998]

Amazing that Blair got a comfortable majority in 2005 with 13.6% less of the vote than Attlee's defeat in 1951.

The wonders of FPTP.

The Lib Dems won a sizeable vote share in 2005 (22%) which kept the Conservative vote down enough to give Blair that majority, while in 1951 almost all of the non-Labour votes went to the Conservatives.

[DistingFlyer]

Here are the constituencies shaded by margin:




And here they are shaded by the winners' percentage of the vote:




The safest Labour seat was - for the fourth time running - Liverpool Walton, won by 74.8% (slightly down from 77.1% last time, but otherwise the best 'best result' Labour has had since 1979); twenty-four Labour constituencies were won by margins greater than 50% (down from thirty-four last time; their all-time high was, predictably, sixty-six in 1997)

The safest Tory seat was South Holland & the Deepings, won by 62.7% (the best 'best result' they've had since 1964, or since 1955 if you don't count Northern Irish seats); thirteen Tory seats were won by more than 50% (the most since 1935; the previous post-War highs were 1955 & 1959, with ten apiece)

The safest Liberal seat was Bath, won by 23.6% - the first time in living memory that their safest seat was in the South, and the second time it was in England (Westmorland & Lonsdale took the top prize in 2015); it's otherwise been in Scotland or Wales, including Orkney & Zetland eight times in a row from 1955 through 1979

The safest Nationalist constituency was Aberdeen North, won by 33.9% (in comparison, Dundee East was taken by 39.8% in 2015)

[Intell]

Here are the constituencies shaded by margin:




And here they are shaded by the winners' percentage of the vote:




The safest Labour seat was - for the fourth time running - Liverpool Walton, won by 74.8% (slightly down from 77.1% last time, but otherwise the best 'best result' Labour has had since 1979); twenty-four Labour constituencies were won by margins greater than 50% (down from thirty-four last time; their all-time high was, predictably, sixty-six in 1997)

The safest Tory seat was South Holland & the Deepings, won by 62.7% (the best 'best result' they've had since 1964, or since 1955 if you don't count Northern Irish seats); thirteen Tory seats were won by more than 50% (the most since 1935; the previous post-War highs were 1955 & 1959, with ten apiece)

The safest Liberal seat was Bath, won by 23.6% - the first time in living memory that their safest seat was in the South, and the second time it was in England (Westmorland & Lonsdale took the top prize in 2015); it's otherwise been in Scotland or Wales, including Orkney & Zetland eight times in a row from 1955 through 1979

The safest Nationalist constituency was Aberdeen North, won by 33.9% (in comparison, Dundee East was taken by 39.8% in 2015)

Liverpool Walton voted for Brexit, yet the swings in Liverpool and surrounding areas was much less to the conservatives than in similar seats in the north east, or the red wall.

[DistingFlyer]

Liverpool Walton voted for Brexit, yet the swings in Liverpool and surrounding areas was much less to the conservatives than in similar seats in the north east, or the red wall.

Birmingham as a whole narrowly voted Leave (50%), but saw relatively small swings to the Tories (especially in comparison to the Black Country right next door).

Liverpool as a whole voted 58% to remain, so the weak swings there are a little more predictable; in general, cities that Labour's dominated only in the last few decades (Leeds, Birmingham, etc.) have shuffled back at a much slower pace than the longtime Labour strongholds (Barnsley, Sheffield, Hull, Black Country, mining seats, etc.). Certainly Liverpool doesn't seem very keen to forgive the Tories for the tough times of the 1980s.

The Northwest as a whole still gave a bigger lead to Labour this time (12.6%) than in 2010 (9.1%) - only London can also make that claim.

[Intell]

Liverpool Walton voted for Brexit, yet the swings in Liverpool and surrounding areas was much less to the conservatives than in similar seats in the north east, or the red wall.

Birmingham as a whole narrowly voted Leave (50%), but saw relatively small swings to the Tories (especially in comparison to the Black Country right next door).

Liverpool as a whole voted 58% to remain, so the weak swings there are a little more predictable; in general, cities that Labour's dominated only in the last few decades (Leeds, Birmingham, etc.) have shuffled back at a much slower pace than the longtime Labour strongholds (Barnsley, Sheffield, Hull, Black Country, mining seats, etc.). Certainly Liverpool doesn't seem very keen to forgive the Tories for the tough times of the 1980s.

Bury South, Leave: 54.5%
Labour: -10.2%

Wolverhampton Southwest, Leave: 54.6%
Labour: -5.1%

Blackburn, Leave: 53.7%
Labour: -4.8%

Salford and Eccless, Leave: 53.6%
Labour: -8.7%

Meanwhile Liverpool Walton

Leave: 53.8%
Labour: -1.0%

[DistingFlyer]

London's drift away from the Conservatives:

1945 - Tories behind 8.4% nationally & 14.0% in London (-5.6%)
1950 - behind 2.7% nationally & 2.9% in London (-0.2%)
1951 - behind 0.8% nationally & 2.0% in London (-1.2%)
1955 - ahead 3.4% nationally & 2.1% in London (-1.3%)
1959 - ahead 5.5% nationally & 6.6% in London (+1.1%)
1964 - behind 0.7% nationally & 1.5% in London (-0.8%)
1966 - ahead 6.2% nationally & 7.4% in London (-1.2%)
1970 - ahead 3.3% nationally & 1.6% in London (-1.7%)
Feb 1974 - ahead 0.7% nationally, behind 2.9% in London (-3.6%)
Oct 1974 - behind 3.5% nationally & 6.6% in London (-3.1%)
1979 - ahead 7.1% nationally & 6.4% in London (-0.7%)
1983 - ahead 15.2% nationally & 14.0% in London (-1.2%)
1987 - ahead 11.7% nationally & 15.0% in London (+3.3%)
1992 - ahead 7.6% nationally & 8.3% in London (+0.7%)
1997 - behind 13.0% nationally & 18.3% in London (-5.3%)
2001 - behind 9.3% nationally & 16.9% in London (-7.6%)
2005 - behind 3.0% nationally & 8.0% in London (-5.0%)
2010 - ahead 7.3% nationally, behind 2.1% in London (-9.4%)
2015 - ahead 6.6% nationally, behind 8.8% in London (-15.4%)
2017 - ahead 2.5% nationally, behind 21.4% in London (-23.9%)
2019 - ahead 11.7% nationally, behind 16.1% in London (-27.8%)

(1945 through 1970 figures are estimates, as the constituency borders don't match those of Greater London)

[DistingFlyer]

Overall regional lead figures:

North - Tories trail by 4% (best since 1959)
Midlands - Tories ahead by 22% (best since 1931)
London - Tories trail by 16% (better than 2017, but not much else)
rest of South - Tories lead by 31% (best since 1931)
Wales - Tories trail by 5% (best since 1859)
Scotland - Tories trail by 20% (worse than 2017, but best showing vis-a-vis Labour (6.5% lead) since 1935)

[CumbrianLefty]

Overall regional lead figures:

North - Tories trail by 4% (best since 1959)
Midlands - Tories ahead by 22% (best since 1931)
London - Tories trail by 16% (better than 2017, but not much else)
rest of South - Tories lead by 31% (best since 1931)
Wales - Tories trail by 5% (best since 1859)
Scotland - Tories trail by 20% (worse than 2017, but best showing vis-a-vis Labour (6.5% lead) since 1935)

Despite all those "best since the 1930s", the overall Tory lead over Labour in 1983 was significantly bigger than now (and 1987 was almost identical) And of course the seat majority is smaller than both.

[jimrtex]

Constituency-wide swings:




Again, a pretty good correlation to how they voted in the referendum three years ago - note that the only Scottish constituency estimated to have voted 'Leave' is also the only one to record a pro-Tory swing.

If you look at your original message, there is a new part of Scotland far outside the Outer Hebrides that had an extreme swing to SNP.