UK General Election 2019 - Election Day and Results Thread

[Oryxslayer]

Now we get the best part of the election process: Dogs at Polling Stations!

[Oryxslayer]

The initial BBC projections haven't always been right on, but their track record is pretty good overall:

2017 - projected Tories short by 12 (actually short by 8 )
2015 - projected Tories short by 10 (actually a majority of 12)
2010 - projected Tories short by 19 (correct)
2005 - projected a Labour majority of 66 (correct)
2001 - projected a Labour majority of c.160 (actually a majority of 167)
1997 - projected a Labour majority of c.175 (actually a majority of 179)
1992 - projected Tories short by 25 (actually a majority of 21)
1987 - projected a Tory majority of 26 (actually a majority of 102)
1983 - projected a Tory majority of 146 (actually a majority of 144)

(They didn't provide an exact figure in 1997 & 2001, giving just a rough estimate.)

They were pretty far out on 1987 & 1992, but otherwise were pretty close on all the rest (though you can debate if their 2015 exit poll was 'close' or not, I suppose).

Yes, since '92 the exit poll has always been in the neighborhood of the final results. I recall listening to a podcast on the exit poll and they mentioned since then that methods changed, technology allowed for better analysis, and making it a joint-broadcaster poll increased available funding. These developments have made it more  accurate. It hasn't been the best at the constituency level, particularly when minor parties, new parties, or eye-popping swings are  involved, but it has been accurate enough in regards to the big picture. Everyone should expect that the numbers shown at 10pm are going to be close-ish to the eventual breakdown.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/pokemon_paul/status/1204373448522420224

Oooh, equally pretty *and* useful map.

Useful map from the other thread.

[Oryxslayer]

The most prominent of the Dogs at Polling Stations.

https://twitter.com/SadiqKhan/status/1205041037326073857

https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1205064515404083200

[Oryxslayer]

Here are Three Rules that everyone should observe tonight:

1) Trust the Exit Poll. The modern exit poll has always been in the neighborhood of the final results, thanks to structural changes adopted after ’92. This especially matters if the exit poll diverges from public polling in a significant way. The topline results will likely not be the final result; however, it will be close. But….

         1a) Know what to ignore in the exit poll. It is just a poll. Now, the topline is usually near enough to accurate for us to believe it. The exit poll even gets the usually hard-to-project Lib-Dems right. What lies below the topline though is far more uncertain. Looking back, there are plenty of times the exit poll projected certain seats to flip, but they didn’t and others did. We though will not know what is right or wrong until the sun comes up. Seats are increasingly more likely to be missed if it involves a new party standing, a minor party who has fewer respondent votes to project from, a multi-party 3+ marginal, or a massive swing that breaks traditional swing-o-meters. For all these reasons, Scotland has been recently hard to get right even in the exit poll, but errors are not limited to the 59 seats north of Carlisle.

2) Anecdotal Turnout Reports are Anecdotes. Unless the numbers are being reported by someone who can physically see the vote bin, or see the votes piling up in the count, there is no reason we should give them our trust. Even if the numbers are right, they could suggest any number of things. Every party desires high turnout among their voters after all, and less turnout among the oppositions demographics. Turnout estimates are rough and unreliable by nature.

3) Regions will vote and swing differently. Figures coming from one part of the country should not be used to infer a general trend across the nation. Regions and collections of seats are different demographically, voted differently on Brexit, and have historically different party attachments. Last time in 2017, a third of the nation (The Brexit heavy Northeast) swung to the Tories, a third of the nation swung hard to Labour (London, her Remainy commuter regions, and other urban centers), and the remaining third sung to labour by less than the nation. It is our unfortunate luck that all of the early declaring seats are in the Northeast region, an area that has done their own thing politically for the past five years. This rule also applies to any rumors from before voting has concluded.

[Oryxslayer]

Boris Johnson didn't vote for himself...because he voted in at his Downing Street address.

When I first read that headline, I was hoping it meant he voted for Lord Buckethead or Count Binface.

Do MPs have to live in the constituency they run in? Or is there an exemption made for the PM...

The UK has a proud tradition of airlifting candidates into safe seats purely because they are safe seats, and the candidate climbed enough within the party.

[Oryxslayer]

The data says BoJo gets his majority. The gut says Corbyn magic keeps him under the 320 he needs.

This is pretty much how I’ve felt about this election from the very beginning.

Anyway, does anyone have a good livestream + results pages/maps?

Sky will hav a YT link later. I suspect BBC with have a stream on Twitter like last year as well.

[Oryxslayer]

Boris Johnson didn't vote for himself...because he voted in at his Downing Street address.

And at this rate, that might matter!

https://twitter.com/ljayes/status/1205205524352045056

The dream is alive, boys

Don't trust rumors unless you can actually see the votes. For all we know, this could be expectation setting, Gevelt, or just wanting to pad the margin. Other threads on this forum are littered with the messages of posters who were fooled by GOP insiders and their rumors.

[Oryxslayer]

Yas, BBC is bringing the giant 'steppingstone' hexmap back.

https://twitter.com/fulelo/status/1205224259200659461

[Oryxslayer]

Yas, BBC is bringing the giant 'steppingstone' hexmap back.

https://twitter.com/fulelo/status/1205224259200659461

Ugh. These hexmaps are horrible to look at. I prefer the Electoral Calculus 'equal area' map, as it holds the shape of the country together better: link

Unfortunately we will just have to agree to disagree then.

[Oryxslayer]

Hearing and reading that the weather is dreadful - hard cold wins plus constant rain - in the midlands.

Isn't the impact of bad weather on turnout grossly exaggerated?

Yes but it does have a small effect, especially when combo'ed with limited daylight and a poor baseline temperature to begin with

[Oryxslayer]

Remember not to infer anything universal from the first Northeast constituencies. These hard Leave seats with a long history of Labour support have brethren demographically, some of whom are on the front lines, but they do not speak for the entire country. Seats and regions have different demographics, and they may move differently. In the past 5 years, the Northeast has done their own thing in contrast to the rest of the country. So be wary of inferring too much from Sunderland and Newcastle beyond their general neighbors in the north.

[Oryxslayer]

Will the BBC be offering any way to stream their election coverage?

Outside of the UK, there are a few options. VPN allows you access to BBC's free stream on site. CSPAN-2 will have the bbc results rehosted but their website says at 6pm. Their also may be a livestream on twitter, though that will be a bit to show up.

[Oryxslayer]

Will the BBC be offering any way to stream their election coverage?

Outside of the UK, there are a few options. VPN allows you access to BBC's free stream on site. CSPAN-2 will have the bbc results rehosted but their website says at 6pm. Their also may be a livestream on twitter, though that will be a bit to show up.

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/election-2019-50755004
BBC as always has a live stream available internationally on the live coverage blog.

Yah Boi. I thought it would be geoblocked like everything.

[Oryxslayer]

The scary part: Boris can still go up, because the exits are historically bad in scotland post-2015

[Oryxslayer]

Look at all the people now hopping into the thread.... -_-

[Oryxslayer]

OTH is 22 -> OTH is 4 in GB.  Will that be PC 3 and and Speaker 1 ?

Exit polls considered the speaker as part of tories in 2017, probably part of lab this time.  So 3 PC 1 Green.

[Oryxslayer]

RUMORS THAT TORIES CLOSE IN SUNDERLAND CENTRAL. I said this would be a potential shocker if the tories had a good night.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1205246679835910145

Labour getting ready to spread the blame.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1205250777956179968

Get ready to watch the north got Blue even as Esher and Walton goes orange lol.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1205246679835910145

Labour getting ready to spread the blame.

The conservatives built an electoral coalition of remainers and leavers?

Picked up tons of Leavers, and their remainy southern shires preferred Tory Brexit to Corbyn's Socialism.

[Oryxslayer]

Interestingly BBC has Bridgend as a likely Tory gain, which was strange. Most models said it was too remainy.

[Oryxslayer]

BBC expects that Dudley North, formerly Labour, will go 58-37 Tory

wow

Most models expected it though. Though there are seats where a 10% swing was required and wasn't projected to flip, and this may suggest seats in YouGov's likely catergory flip.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1205254654042480642

[Oryxslayer]

Goodbye, United Kingdom of four countries.

Probably not. There isn't gonna be an Indyref 2 if the SNP isn't in government.

Oh, but it is. In Edinburgh.

And Boris will tell them to F off when Sturegon asks for Indyref2. He knows the data. So Sturgeon will likely do something rash and then... well...

More likely a Catalonia situation develops rather than a new nation.