UK General Election 2019 - Election Day and Results Thread

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The initial BBC projections haven't always been right on, but their track record is pretty good overall:

2017 - projected Tories short by 12 (actually short by 8 )
2015 - projected Tories short by 10 (actually a majority of 12)
2010 - projected Tories short by 19 (correct)
2005 - projected a Labour majority of 66 (correct)
2001 - projected a Labour majority of c.160 (actually a majority of 167)
1997 - projected a Labour majority of c.175 (actually a majority of 179)
1992 - projected Tories short by 25 (actually a majority of 21)
1987 - projected a Tory majority of 26 (actually a majority of 102)
1983 - projected a Tory majority of 146 (actually a majority of 144)

(They didn't provide an exact figure in 1997 & 2001, giving just a rough estimate.)

They were rather off in 1987 & 1992, but otherwise were pretty close on all the rest (though you can debate if their 2015 exit poll was 'close' or not, I suppose).

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Boris Johnson didn't vote for himself...because he voted in at his Downing Street address.

When I first read that headline, I was hoping it meant he voted for Lord Buckethead or Count Binface.

Do MPs have to live in the constituency they run in? Or is there an exemption made for the PM...

They don't have to, though obviously it helps. Sometimes boundary changes mean that they no longer live in the constituency (which happened to Gordon Brown after 2005, I think).

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If the actual counts bear this out, it does indeed look as though British voting patterns are moving closer towards those of the US & Canada - a stronger urban/rural divide, with wealthy urban & suburban areas going left while blue-collar areas go right.

Certainly Sedgefield & Bolsover voting Tory while Kensington & London go Labour more closely resembles American (post-1990s) & Canadian (post-1950s) results than British ones of the last hundred years.

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If the actual counts bear this out, it does indeed look as though British voting patterns are moving closer towards those of the US & Canada - a stronger urban/rural divide, with wealthy urban & suburban areas going left while blue-collar areas go right.

Certainly Sedgefield & Bolsover voting Tory while Kensington & London go Labour more closely resembles American (post-1990s) & Canadian (post-1950s) results than British ones of the last hundred years.

It seems like Canada is more regional still than anything else, with Conservatives dominating out West but Libs dominating in Ontario and the Atlantic while Quebec being more like Scotland.

That's true too; Prairie cities still go Tory, but plush ridings in other big urban areas in the West, East & Quebec - think Quadra, Mount Royal, Rosedale and so forth - have been strongly Liberal for a long time. Put it another way: the 'old money' areas are Liberal, while the 'new money' places are Conservative.

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Blyth had been held by Labour since the 1950s according to the BBC. Dang. This might turn out even worse for Labour than even the exit poll suggested. But as we've heard 100x already "it's very early!"

The seat took its present name in 1950, but if you go by its precursor (Morpeth) it's been Labour since 1935.

The Tories took it in 1931 (when they got more than 500 seats); before then, you have to go back to 1796 to see a Conservative winning there.

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First southern result in: North Swindon held by the Tories with a 7% swing towards them.

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Newcastle-upon-Tyne North in - the best Labour result so far, with a swing of only 4.6% against them.

Newcastle is swinging much less hard than Sunderland, but given how they voted in the 2016 referendum that's not exactly a shock.

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First northwestern seat in now: Halton held by Labour with a 5.1% swing against them.

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South Shields LAB hold (another North East seat).

Famously the only constituency to have never voted for a Tory (I believe)

Last voted Conservative in 1837 - Whig, Liberal or Labour ever since then.

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First result from the Midlands: Nuneaton held by the Conservatives with a 9.4% swing towards them.

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SNP gain Rutherglen & Hamilton West from Labour

Pretty much on schedule - BBC projected a 0100 declaration.

First southeastern seat in now: Tories hold Broxbourne with a 4.6% swing toward them.

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The big swing in Blyth Valley (10.2%) wasn't isolated or a fluke, I guess - Labour hold adjacent Wansbeck but with a swing of 11.3% against them.

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Workington: 9.7% swing to Tories
Kettering (first East Midlands result): 6.3% swing to Tories
Fylde: 5.1% to Tories

Seventeen seats in now, none showing a swing less than 4.6%.

Looking at the first fifteen counts in every election, the only times that a misleading picture was provided by them were 2015 (where they indicated Labour gains) & 2017 (where they indicated Tory gains).

Unless these early counts are incredibly out of line with the rest, tonight should enter the company of 1966, 1997 & 2005, where every result out of the first fifteen pointed toward the correct outcome (increased Labour majority, Labour gaining government with a majority & reduced Labour majority respectively).

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LAB gains Jarrow

It's not really a gain as the current MP was Labour but was suspended and became Independent.

Jarrow ties Wansbeck for the biggest swing so far tonight (11.3%). Will be interesting to see what the largest overall will be.

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First Welsh result: Labour hold Caerphilly with a 6.1% swing against them.

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Tories gain Vale of Clwyd: Chris Ruane, Labour member since the 1997 blowout, loses on a 5.5% swing.

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Tories gain Vale of Clwyd: Chris Ruane, Labour member since the 1997 blowout, loses on a 5.5% swing.

Tories gained it in 2015, but lost it in 2017. So, third election in a row now where it's changed parties.

My apologies; you're quite right.

Wrexham has just come in, and has fallen to the Tories on a 5.8% swing. This one has been either Liberal or Labour since its creation in 1918, though the Conservatives came close to winning it in 1983 in a three-way fight.

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SNP pick up Angus on a 7.7% swing; Labour vote well down there (by 8.3%).

Putney gone to Labour on a 6.4% swing.

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Tories hold Harrogate & Knaresborough, but Liberals get a 7.6% swing towards them.

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Some new results in the North West:

Tories pick up Leigh on a 12.2% swing (biggest yet, I think) - this has been Liberal or Labour since 1885;
Labour hold Knowsley with only a 1.7% swing against them; and
Labour hold Makerfield with a 9.0% swing against them.

All three constituencies are estimated to have voted 'Leave,' but no prizes for guessing which one did so by the smallest margin.

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I didn't check before the result came in: does anybody know what odds the BBC gave for Leigh going down? It certainly wasn't on the 'likely' list.

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While we wait for Sedgefield, here's another former Labour leader's constituency in: Islwyn has been held (obviously), but with a 7.8% swing against them. This is their smallest victory there since 1918 (when they gained it from the Liberals 54%-46%).

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Tories pick up Clwyd South on a 7.5% swing; northern Wales has certainly been good to them so far.

Labour hold Swansea West with only a 2.8% swing against them.

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Labour hold Llanelli with an 8.8% swing against them.

BBC gave only a 50% chance of the Tories picking up Gower, but I'll wager now that they've won it.

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Rushcliffe held by Conservatives with only a 0.6% swing against them (Labour & Tory vote both down, Liberal vote well up).

Hartlepool held by Labour with a 4.8% swing against them - Labour & Tory vote both down there too, with the Brexit candidate almost taking second place.

Going back to southern Wales, Ogmore held by Labour with a 7.6% swing against them.