August 2020 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/MichaelChongMP/status/1222603732766072834

[mileslunn]

https://twitter.com/MichaelChongMP/status/1222603732766072834

With MacKay the frontrunner and being from the PC wing, that side is already taken and really the party being more Reform dominated can only take one from that side.  Also party is still against carbon tax and probably has to lose another election or two over that before they change at which point Chong would have a better chance. 

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/davidakin/status/1221100162271121410

Honestly, I struggle to see the point of this. O'Toole represents largely the same constituency of voters as MacKay, but is less popular among them. I expect his campaign to focus on foreign policy issues but I simply don't think that's enough to get him the win, & it's not like he's not already guaranteed a Cabinet post in a MacKay government, so it doesn't seem as if there's really a need to up his profile. I don't know why he's trying.

I thought the same thing initially, but the way the field's shaken out, it's gone pretty well for him. There's a huge chunk of members who are to the right of MacKay but aren't voting for factional socon candidates.

He has a clear (if uphill) path to victory this time at least.

Does he really, though? I mean, I'm not saying that nobody should run against MacKay, but I just don't understand why O'Toole would when his entire 2017 leadership campaign basically relied on trying to get most of the PC & Atlantic vote, which MacKay has entirely wrapped up this time.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/candicebergenmp/status/1222692571203493891

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/candicebergenmp/status/1222692571203493891

How much of her profile in Canadian politics is related to people immediately recognizing her name because she shares it with a '90s sitcom star?

[DL]

https://twitter.com/candicebergenmp/status/1222692571203493891

How much of her profile in Canadian politics is related to people immediately recognizing her name because she shares it with a '90s sitcom star?

Not much actually. She was Candace Hoeppner for most of her political career only became Bergen a couple of years ago when she married

[DC Al Fine]

https://twitter.com/davidakin/status/1221100162271121410

Honestly, I struggle to see the point of this. O'Toole represents largely the same constituency of voters as MacKay, but is less popular among them. I expect his campaign to focus on foreign policy issues but I simply don't think that's enough to get him the win, & it's not like he's not already guaranteed a Cabinet post in a MacKay government, so it doesn't seem as if there's really a need to up his profile. I don't know why he's trying.

I thought the same thing initially, but the way the field's shaken out, it's gone pretty well for him. There's a huge chunk of members who are to the right of MacKay but aren't voting for factional socon candidates.

He has a clear (if uphill) path to victory this time at least.

Does he really, though? I mean, I'm not saying that nobody should run against MacKay, but I just don't understand why O'Toole would when his entire 2017 leadership campaign basically relied on trying to get most of the PC & Atlantic vote, which MacKay has entirely wrapped up this time.

Sure. He didn't have one when he started (because of the issues you noted), but given the makeup of the field, one has opened up for him:

1) Blunt MacKay's crossover appeal
2) Go after voters who are too right wing for MacKay but not overtly factional
3) Get preferences from socons on the later ballots

[adma]

https://twitter.com/candicebergenmp/status/1222692571203493891

How much of her profile in Canadian politics is related to people immediately recognizing her name because she shares it with a '90s sitcom star?

Well, her namesake was the daughter of Edgar Bergen, and the previous Conservative leader was sometimes compared to Charlie McCarthy; so, there you go. ;-)

[RogueBeaver]

MacKay is already shuffling his team and his organization is er, rather disorganized ATM. But he's still heavily favoured.

[DC Al Fine]

MacKay is already shuffling his team and his organization is er, rather disorganized ATM. But he's still heavily favoured.

Makes sense. Early messaging has been a mess.

[brucejoel99]

MacKay is already shuffling his team and his organization is er, rather disorganized ATM. But he's still heavily favoured.

If MacKay thinks that because he's a heavy early favorite that he can slack off & not keep a tight ship, then he'll regret it. If he continues down this path, then he may very well go the way that Biden's campaign has gone thus far.

[RogueBeaver]

Baird is considering but says the window's closing.

[brucejoel99]

Baird is considering but says the window's closing.

He's gonna be in the media every other day testing the waters now so that won't be annoying at all.

I'm not even sure where he fits on the palette. A more refined Peter MacKay? Can't see him swinging right with O'Toole. Anything left of blue Tory & he'll be a liberal to the membership. Definitely not a social conservative.

Never mind that, though. Baird's reputation was seriously tarnished when he appeared sympathetic to the Saudis during Canada's spat with them over human rights, & you better believe that Trudeau has the Saudi tapes on stand by in case of a Baird win, so I'm sure the Liberals would be thrilled were he to do so. He just makes it too easy for those attack ads.

[DL]

There are also all kinds of rumours and allegations that Baird sexually assaulted young men in his office and in his foreign travels. If he were to run all of that would come out...

[mileslunn]

There are also all kinds of rumours and allegations that Baird sexually assaulted young men in his office and in his foreign travels. If he were to run all of that would come out...

They are already out on twitter and pretty sure if not media, one of his opponents would raise it.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/Baird/status/1228092570695278592

[DL]

https://twitter.com/Baird/status/1228092570695278592

Translation: He knew that if he ran he would be exposed as a serial abuser of young men...apparently the reason he quite abruptly as Foreign Affairs minister was some video of him with Palestinian boys at a brothel in Israel

[DC Al Fine]

Leslyn Lewis is the third candidate to meet the first set of requirements to get on the ballot, along with MacKay and O'Toole. Kind of surprising as she beat some of the better known socons and Marilyn Gladu out the gate.

[DC Al Fine]

https://twitter.com/Baird/status/1228092570695278592

Translation: He knew that if he ran he would be exposed as a serial abuser of young men...apparently the reason he quite abruptly as Foreign Affairs minister was some video of him with Palestinian boys at a brothel in Israel

That's the rumours I've been hearing on my side of the aisle *cringe*

[mileslunn]

I was wondering having read a lot on whether Conservatives can win or not, do people here agree with idea Conservatives are not electable and cannot win next election or do they think they can.

I think naturally Canada is more liberal than conservative thus putting Conservatives at a disadvantage but I think with right leader, right policies, and if Trudeau screws up a win is possible but won't be easy.  All else equal, I think more of Canada leans Liberal than Conservative and on balance more Canadians lean left than lean right although most are close to the centre.

[DC Al Fine]

I was wondering having read a lot on whether Conservatives can win or not, do people here agree with idea Conservatives are not electable and cannot win next election or do they think they can.

I think naturally Canada is more liberal than conservative thus putting Conservatives at a disadvantage but I think with right leader, right policies, and if Trudeau screws up a win is possible but won't be easy.  All else equal, I think more of Canada leans Liberal than Conservative and on balance more Canadians lean left than lean right although most are close to the centre.

Talking about how a party "can't" in a country like Canada is silly. In the last ten years alone we have 2011, 2015, Alberta 2015, Quebec 2018. Going back further we have 1993, BC 1991 and on and on.

Even ignoring the big wave elections, it's not all that hard to imgaine a Tory win. The economy might not be as strong next time, the government might bungle a file etc etc. The poll movements required for a Tory win just aren't that big; absorb the PPC, and some pretty small movements from Lib to Tory/NDP/Green would do it.

I think the talk about Canada being 'left' is more a symptom of an underlying issue for the Canadian right; that popular right wing politics in Quebec vs ROC is often contradictory and difficult to synthesize. Due to this issue and the post-colonial mindset in much of Quebec, a lot of people who vote CAQ provincially or who would for the right if Quebec were an independent state, vote for the left federally. Deprived of these voters (with some notable exceptions), the Tories are stuck trying to win voters that aren't very sympathetic to them in order to win power. Those suburbs of Toronto and Vancouver that the Tories need to win to win a majority government definitely fit your analysis.

Or put another way. Imagine an alternate universe where Quebec was settled by Anglophones, and was roughly analogous to Ontario. Montreal is Toronto 2.0, rural Quebec is like rural southern Ontario, Lac St Jean is like Sudbury or Thunder Bay etc. Maybe the PM is Justin Turnbull and Mark Burns quit to set up his own party. I don't know if Scheer wins that election, but the Tories and NDP would certainly do a heck of a lot better than they did IRL purely on demographics.

[mileslunn]

I was wondering having read a lot on whether Conservatives can win or not, do people here agree with idea Conservatives are not electable and cannot win next election or do they think they can.

I think naturally Canada is more liberal than conservative thus putting Conservatives at a disadvantage but I think with right leader, right policies, and if Trudeau screws up a win is possible but won't be easy.  All else equal, I think more of Canada leans Liberal than Conservative and on balance more Canadians lean left than lean right although most are close to the centre.

Talking about how a party "can't" in a country like Canada is silly. In the last ten years alone we have 2011, 2015, Alberta 2015, Quebec 2018. Going back further we have 1993, BC 1991 and on and on.

Even ignoring the big wave elections, it's not all that hard to imgaine a Tory win. The economy might not be as strong next time, the government might bungle a file etc etc. The poll movements required for a Tory win just aren't that big; absorb the PPC, and some pretty small movements from Lib to Tory/NDP/Green would do it.

I think the talk about Canada being 'left' is more a symptom of an underlying issue for the Canadian right; that popular right wing politics in Quebec vs ROC is often contradictory and difficult to synthesize. Due to this issue and the post-colonial mindset in much of Quebec, a lot of people who vote CAQ provincially or who would for the right if Quebec were an independent state, vote for the left federally. Deprived of these voters (with some notable exceptions), the Tories are stuck trying to win voters that aren't very sympathetic to them in order to win power. Those suburbs of Toronto and Vancouver that the Tories need to win to win a majority government definitely fit your analysis.

Or put another way. Imagine an alternate universe where Quebec was settled by Anglophones, and was roughly analogous to Ontario. Montreal is Toronto 2.0, rural Quebec is like rural southern Ontario, Lac St Jean is like Sudbury or Thunder Bay etc. Maybe the PM is Justin Turnbull and Mark Burns quit to set up his own party. I don't know if Scheer wins that election, but the Tories and NDP would certainly do a heck of a lot better than they did IRL purely on demographics.

True enough although if you look at Canada's largest province Ontario, Tories generally get in the 30s and more often than not finish behind the Liberals.  BC despite being good for the Conservatives in past seems to be drifting away with Interior still solidly for parties on right at provincial and federal level but Lower Mainland and Vancouver Island much less so than a decade ago.  That being said Quebec is more rural than Ontario and less diverse so the demographics actually in Quebec are more favourable for parties on right than they are in Ontario thus to your point.  Liberals have the benefit in Quebec in that they have the non-Franco vote locked up so gives them a much stronger starting point than the Tories there.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/sunlorrie/status/1235683186983780352

[OSR stands with Israel]

Go O'Toole

[King of Kensington]

Karahilos disqualified

https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/pro-life-candidates-leslyn-lewis-derek-sloan-qualify-for-final-ballot-in-tory-leadership-race