August 2020 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election

[DC Al Fine]

Pollievre tacking left also probably explains this:

https://twitter.com/ErinOTooleMP/status/1218209938876530688

[RogueBeaver]

Maher says other teams' internals show MacKay with a double digit lead.

[Pandaguineapig]

If MacKay won the leadership, would a safe seat MP in the west or Ontario resign to allow him to take a seat in Parliament, or would he wait until the next election to contest a seat in Nova Scotia?

[adma]

Its interesting that in the last CPC leadership contest there were several social conservatives in the mix such as Scheer, Trost and Lemieux (at the time Bernier was supposedly more of a libertarian but he has since revealed himself to be a social conservative too). So far in this year's contest its not clear if there will be ANYONE who is an unabashed SoCon even running.

There might be but some unknown name.  I think after loss, its pretty social conservatism is a vote loser and most people committed to the party want to win not just be leader to promote a certain agenda, they also want to implement it too.

Nevertheless, it'd be strange if there weren't a Trost/Lemieux standard-bearer (Scheer was more of a soft-pedal case, since he was actually running to win, rather than to simply advance an agenda).  At least it makes sense as a Conservative equivalent to socialist-caucus NDPers like Niki Ashton...

[Hatman 🍁]

If MacKay won the leadership, would a safe seat MP in the west or Ontario resign to allow him to take a seat in Parliament, or would he wait until the next election to contest a seat in Nova Scotia?

Someone will resign in a safe seat. The question is, who?

[DC Al Fine]

Its interesting that in the last CPC leadership contest there were several social conservatives in the mix such as Scheer, Trost and Lemieux (at the time Bernier was supposedly more of a libertarian but he has since revealed himself to be a social conservative too). So far in this year's contest its not clear if there will be ANYONE who is an unabashed SoCon even running.

There might be but some unknown name.  I think after loss, its pretty social conservatism is a vote loser and most people committed to the party want to win not just be leader to promote a certain agenda, they also want to implement it too.

That's true, but I'm afraid the party and consultant class are overcorrecting on this. Social conservatives cannot be expected to vote for people who have contempt for them. The Conservative Party, while diverse, cannot win without social conservatives in the tent.

Even ignoring my socon bugbear, the party elites and consultants seem to have decided to go after the vanishingly small electorate in the "bottom right" quadrant of the political compass instead of the much more numerous "top left" voters that brought the right so much success in the rest of the West.

Guess we'll get to see Trudeau copy his father's election record

[Njall]

If MacKay won the leadership, would a safe seat MP in the west or Ontario resign to allow him to take a seat in Parliament, or would he wait until the next election to contest a seat in Nova Scotia?

Someone will resign in a safe seat. The question is, who?

Off the top of my head (though not based on any information in particular), it's possible we could see Peter Kent step aside. He's been in parliament for a few terms now, and Thornhill is the safest non-rural CPC seat that close to Toronto, where the CPC wants to make inroads and where MacKay currently lives.

According to Wikipedia (so take that for what you will), MacKay's early endorsees from caucus are Ed Fast (Abbotsford), Blaine Calkins (Red Deer--Lacombe), and Dean Allison (Niagara West). All are MPs serving their 5th or 6th terms representing safe CPC seats, so they could all conceivably step aside. I'm not aware of any connections MacKay would have to any of their ridings, although that's not necessarily a deal breaker.

[DC Al Fine]

If MacKay won the leadership, would a safe seat MP in the west or Ontario resign to allow him to take a seat in Parliament, or would he wait until the next election to contest a seat in Nova Scotia?

Someone will resign in a safe seat. The question is, who?

Off the top of my head (though not based on any information in particular), it's possible we could see Peter Kent step aside. He's been in parliament for a few terms now, and Thornhill is the safest non-rural CPC seat that close to Toronto, where the CPC wants to make inroads and where MacKay currently lives.

According to Wikipedia (so take that for what you will), MacKay's early endorsees from caucus are Ed Fast (Abbotsford), Blaine Calkins (Red Deer--Lacombe), and Dean Allison (Niagara West). All are MPs serving their 5th or 6th terms representing safe CPC seats, so they could all conceivably step aside. I'm not aware of any connections MacKay would have to any of their ridings, although that's not necessarily a deal breaker.

Is Scheer planning on staying in Parliament long term? If he's quitting once the new leader is picked, his seat would do.

[DL]

I have a hunch Scheer is one of those guys who will remain an MP until he either does or is defeated. His whole life is politics and nothing else. He has no profession (not even as an insurance adjuster) so there is nothing for him to do other than to be an MP

[RogueBeaver]

Deltell announces on Facebook he won't run.

[adma]

I have a hunch Scheer is one of those guys who will remain an MP until he either does or is defeated. His whole life is politics and nothing else. He has no profession (not even as an insurance adjuster) so there is nothing for him to do other than to be an MP

Or collect a parlliamentary pension, or be appointed to various boards, etc.  The usual kind of "post-political-career" drop-in-the-bucket stuff...

[RogueBeaver]

Charest is out.

[Estrella]

Charest is out.

I'm pleasantly surprised that he had enough sense to drop out. I'm amazed that he had the amount of self-delusion to think that 1. members from rural Ontario and Prairies would vote for him over literally anybody else and 2. he would have any chance in Québec after the early 2010s corruptionfest.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/MALeclerc_/status/1220022240173002752

https://twitter.com/HannahThibedeau/status/1220055013914968065

[brucejoel99]

Charest is out.

After Harper specifically left his neutral-by-party-rules position in order to block Charest, it was kind of a done deal. When Harper is against you, you don't have much of a chance. That he was willing to make such a big deal out of it was weird, but doing so killed his campaign before it even started. If Harper decides to back anybody, I assume they'll win the leadership.

https://twitter.com/MALeclerc_/status/1220022240173002752

He's dead in the water, guaranteed. He won't catch on & will drop out to support Poilievre in what'll eventually be a Poilievre vs. MacKay race. Gladu will also drop out, but she'll support MacKay.

[Hatman 🍁]

What's with all of these no names lining up to run? They can't possibly afford the $500,000 to get in.

Anyway, a question about socons (to DC especially): say the Tories nominate a moderate with some disdain for the movement. What happens in the next election to their votes? Do they stay home? I can't imagine the Cons would lose ridings like Niagara West or Abbotsford if they do. And then there are the Socon immigrant communities who are in swing ridings. Maybe them staying home would hurt. But would they?

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/btaplatt/status/1220064004569214978

Ambrose announces she's out.

[mileslunn]

Rona Ambrose is out so definitely a huge blow, but also helps increase MacKay's odds of becoming next leader quite a bit.

[mileslunn]

What's with all of these no names lining up to run? They can't possibly afford the $500,000 to get in.

Anyway, a question about socons (to DC especially): say the Tories nominate a moderate with some disdain for the movement. What happens in the next election to their votes? Do they stay home? I can't imagine the Cons would lose ridings like Niagara West or Abbotsford if they do. And then there are the Socon immigrant communities who are in swing ridings. Maybe them staying home would hurt. But would they?

Its just whether one is a SoCon or not, its whether it is a top issue.  I suspect the number of Canadians who have abortion or gay marriage as one of their top 3 priorities is under 2%so little downside if they leave.  For immigrant communities, I've found they rarely tend to vote on this.  I think most understand Canada is more socially liberal than the country they are from so has little impact on how they vote.  Many Muslims are quite socially conservative yet overwhelming majority vote Liberal or NDP with Tory support amongst Muslim community being in single digits.

Where it maybe had an impact was back when gay marriage was legalized as many Liberal MPs from heavily ethnic ridings in GTA voted against.  For example in Scarborough, all six Liberal MPs in 2005 voted against it.

[DC Al Fine]

What's with all of these no names lining up to run? They can't possibly afford the $500,000 to get in.

Anyway, a question about socons (to DC especially): say the Tories nominate a moderate with some disdain for the movement. What happens in the next election to their votes? Do they stay home? I can't imagine the Cons would lose ridings like Niagara West or Abbotsford if they do. And then there are the Socon immigrant communities who are in swing ridings. Maybe them staying home would hurt. But would they?

Just mild disdain? Probably nothing happens, especially if Trudeau pulls something like the abortion attestation again.

Now suppose the new leader's disdain for the movement is more than mild and makes many socons feel unwelcome in the party. I would expect somewhat depressed socon turnout, an uptick in the number of and support for Christian Heritage candidates, and possibly some modest movement to the PPC/Wexit.

Socons are actually fairly evenly distributed across Canada. E.g. Evangelicals make up ~5-8% of the population in most non-Quebec cities. What does that mean for the final result? Nothing huge. The Tories aren't going to lose any safe seats over it. Instead, I would expect the Tories to lose a few races on the margin (wherever the margin is in that election), because their GOTV wasn't quite as good as they hoped and/or the CHP got 1.25% in the seat instead of the expected 0.5%. That sort of thing.

All that being said, I don't expect us to get all that alienated after the leadership race. I'd expect a competent centrist with a sense of his coalition, would do what Harper did and refuse to touch social issues while giving us a couple of the non-divisive things on our wishlist to keep us happy.

[Intell]

Just bang on about immigration in an economic manner, racialise islamic fear and win the election its easy.

[DC Al Fine]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DerekSloanCPC/status/1220012199042670592

Justice critic and first term socon MP Derek Sloan has thrown his hat in the ring.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/btaplatt/status/1220064004569214978

Officially starting the campaign without a media availability? That's sure to set the tone for his run, as well as his tenure, if elected.

This run has obviously been on the books since spring 2015, when he ducked out of the house before Harper's inevitable loss & cited his love of family as to why he had to leave federal politics. Guess that changed?

Yeah, he's got somewhat of a polling lead on the other candidates, but that's not saying much; worth noting that, this far out in the last race, O'Leary was a front runner, so a lot can happen.

Regardless, though, I think that if they have to go back to the past to get a leader, then that says a lot about the viability of the CPC going forward. MacKay may be a great politician, but he's clearly a politician from back in the day, & if that's the best that the CPC has, well... okay, I guess? But that's a big problem, though.

Ambrose announces she's out.

Glad it's official. I don't really blame her; signing up for this race is no guarantee that you won't be replaced in a couple years just like Scheer. It's a lot of attention, & requires giving up that cushy private sector life. Not to mention, the cost of running, since the required funds for this election have been raised substantially compared to the last contest.

Despite being the 'favorite', she wasn't exactly polling highly. I think she was topping out <20% support? Since the CPC use a ranked ballot system, that kind of polling doesn't necessarily translate to a win.

Now that it's official (instead of just being rumored for weeks), I wonder if she'll endorse somebody (specifically, Gladu, based on her statement).

[RogueBeaver]

Pierre Paul-Hus and Luc Berthold endorse MacKay, and Poilievre will announce on Sunday.

[Hatman 🍁]

Just bang on about immigration in an economic manner, racialise islamic fear and win the election its easy.

That worked so well for them in 2015.