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January 28, 2020, 08:45:46 am
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  June 27, 2020 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election
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Author Topic: June 27, 2020 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election  (Read 5622 times)
DC Al Fine
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« Reply #50 on: January 05, 2020, 10:14:39 am »

Geez that's a quick turn around. No waiting six months to see what the field is Tongue
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #51 on: January 06, 2020, 03:38:06 pm »
« Edited: January 06, 2020, 07:13:06 pm by RogueBeaver »

Vincenzo Guzzo, the cinema mogul and Dragons' Den star, is running.

Poilievre will announce later this month.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #52 on: January 07, 2020, 08:31:40 am »

MacKay and Guzzo will announce their intentions by Friday, Charest either this week or next, Ambrose probably out, ditto Deltell. Fortier uncertain, Poilievre and O'Toole TBA.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #53 on: January 08, 2020, 09:07:57 am »
« Edited: January 08, 2020, 04:29:11 pm by RogueBeaver »

Charest is running, and interestingly one of his clients is Huawei for the Meng and 5G files (paywalled).

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mileslunn
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« Reply #54 on: January 09, 2020, 01:05:16 am »

Of possibilities so far here are my thoughts:

Ambrose: If she runs, very good chance she wins it as she is from Alberta so can appeal to Western base, yet moderate enough to appeal to more moderate side especially in Eastern half of the country.  Also reasonably well liked so on paper at least looks good in a national election, but obviously one must be cautious here as both Jim Prentice and John Tory (for Ontario PCs in 2007) looked good on paper but didn't perform so well.  But all signs now suggests she doesn't want it.

Charest: Long odds he actually wins it as Western base and those from Reform wing cannot stand him especially with his stances on climate change and gun control.  That being said its every riding gets equal weight so in Quebec where membership is small and Atlantic Canada where most come from PC side (that is assuming MacKay doesn't run) he could do surprisingly well but unlikely to win leadership, still could play key role in ensuring a more moderate vs. right wing candidate wins as his second choices will probably flow that way.  Could help the party in Quebec and Atlantic Canada, but probably helps PPC in Prairies where he is seen as too much of a Red Tory, nonetheless, Tories can lose a lot of votes there without losing many seats so might not help the party a lot in a general election vote wise, but would seat wise as shifts would be in all the right places.

MacKay: Comes from the former PC wing, originally from Atlantic Canada and lives in Ontario so should do well in Eastern half of the country.  Unlike Charest I don't think Reform wing and Western base minds him as much, still not likely their first choice but if final ballot MacKay vs. Polievere, most Charest's supporters would likely flow to MacKay and same if MacKay vs. Charest, most Polievere would go to him.  Being moderate and from Atlantic Canada as well as charismatic helps, but I think is a bit overrated and underperformed as cabinet minister.  But still has more potential to widen tent than narrow it.

O'Toole: Not a household name, but did alright last time.  His main challenge is not falling off the ballot early on as probably won't be high on people's first choices, but is respected by all wings so will get a lot of second choices and could emerge as a consensus candidate as someone like Charest or Polievere is bound to anger one side of party.  As a sort of bland non-offensive, how well he does in general election will depend on how popular Trudeau is.  If Trudeau's approval rebounds, he is not the type who can excite people thus probably won't do too well, but as someone who is seen as non-risky if Trudeau's approval ratings fall further, I could see him doing well as being seen as a safe choice.  A lot like Brian Pallister in Manitoba who is not overly well liked, but not scary either and when people were ready to punt the NDP, he didn't scare them away.

Polievere:  Very popular with base and being born in Alberta but living in Ontario helps him build a base in both West and Ontario.  Also shares the hatred and anger much of the membership does of Trudeau.  So while I think he has a great chance of becoming next leader, his chances in a general election are much weaker.  Too much of a pit bull so likely to fire up the base, but I am skeptical about his ability to appeal to swing voters.  Still, as we saw with Doug Ford, if people are mad enough just about anyone can win, but I don't see Trudeau's approval ratings falling to Wynne levels which is what would be needed for him to win.

As for dark horses

Detell and Chong are others who might enter.  Detell especially if Charest doesn't run might stand a better chance and being from CAQ instead of PLQ his conservative credentials are stronger so less issue with Western base while can make a strong case he can bring the same coalition that helped elect Francois Legault provincially into the federal Tories.  Chong looks better after the bad results, but I still don't think party has come around to supporting a carbon tax even if majority of Canadians have.  Otherwise Chong is a great candidate to appeal to swing voters, but not popular amongst base who play a big role in choosing leader.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #55 on: January 09, 2020, 08:33:51 am »

Charest will enter in the next couple of weeks and be endorsed by Mulroney and Brad Wall. MacKay is "100% in."
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #56 on: January 09, 2020, 10:36:28 am »

Of possibilities so far here are my thoughts:

Ambrose: If she runs, very good chance she wins it as she is from Alberta so can appeal to Western base, yet moderate enough to appeal to more moderate side especially in Eastern half of the country.  Also reasonably well liked so on paper at least looks good in a national election, but obviously one must be cautious here as both Jim Prentice and John Tory (for Ontario PCs in 2007) looked good on paper but didn't perform so well.  But all signs now suggests she doesn't want it.

Charest: Long odds he actually wins it as Western base and those from Reform wing cannot stand him especially with his stances on climate change and gun control.  That being said its every riding gets equal weight so in Quebec where membership is small and Atlantic Canada where most come from PC side (that is assuming MacKay doesn't run) he could do surprisingly well but unlikely to win leadership, still could play key role in ensuring a more moderate vs. right wing candidate wins as his second choices will probably flow that way.  Could help the party in Quebec and Atlantic Canada, but probably helps PPC in Prairies where he is seen as too much of a Red Tory, nonetheless, Tories can lose a lot of votes there without losing many seats so might not help the party a lot in a general election vote wise, but would seat wise as shifts would be in all the right places.

MacKay: Comes from the former PC wing, originally from Atlantic Canada and lives in Ontario so should do well in Eastern half of the country.  Unlike Charest I don't think Reform wing and Western base minds him as much, still not likely their first choice but if final ballot MacKay vs. Polievere, most Charest's supporters would likely flow to MacKay and same if MacKay vs. Charest, most Polievere would go to him.  Being moderate and from Atlantic Canada as well as charismatic helps, but I think is a bit overrated and underperformed as cabinet minister.  But still has more potential to widen tent than narrow it.

O'Toole: Not a household name, but did alright last time.  His main challenge is not falling off the ballot early on as probably won't be high on people's first choices, but is respected by all wings so will get a lot of second choices and could emerge as a consensus candidate as someone like Charest or Polievere is bound to anger one side of party.  As a sort of bland non-offensive, how well he does in general election will depend on how popular Trudeau is.  If Trudeau's approval rebounds, he is not the type who can excite people thus probably won't do too well, but as someone who is seen as non-risky if Trudeau's approval ratings fall further, I could see him doing well as being seen as a safe choice.  A lot like Brian Pallister in Manitoba who is not overly well liked, but not scary either and when people were ready to punt the NDP, he didn't scare them away.

Polievere:  Very popular with base and being born in Alberta but living in Ontario helps him build a base in both West and Ontario.  Also shares the hatred and anger much of the membership does of Trudeau.  So while I think he has a great chance of becoming next leader, his chances in a general election are much weaker.  Too much of a pit bull so likely to fire up the base, but I am skeptical about his ability to appeal to swing voters.  Still, as we saw with Doug Ford, if people are mad enough just about anyone can win, but I don't see Trudeau's approval ratings falling to Wynne levels which is what would be needed for him to win.

As for dark horses

Detell and Chong are others who might enter.  Detell especially if Charest doesn't run might stand a better chance and being from CAQ instead of PLQ his conservative credentials are stronger so less issue with Western base while can make a strong case he can bring the same coalition that helped elect Francois Legault provincially into the federal Tories.  Chong looks better after the bad results, but I still don't think party has come around to supporting a carbon tax even if majority of Canadians have.  Otherwise Chong is a great candidate to appeal to swing voters, but not popular amongst base who play a big role in choosing leader.

Ambrose wins it if she runs I think. She's popular with most groups and it's hard to see an Anyone But Rona movement developing. But assuming she doesn't run...

Reds
Charest will probably flop. He isn't even popular with actual Quebec Tories. He'll probably run up the score in the rotten boroughs in Quebec but that's it. MacKay has a better shot, but Charest's rotten boroughs might sink him early. Also Quebec+Atlantic isn't near enough, so he'll need to make some noise in Ontario. Chong is lol. If Scheer didn't have "it" then Chong definitely doesn't. Plus there aee more credible Red Tory candidates this time.

Blues
Deltell is an intriguing candidate as a Franco Blue, who isn't a political idiot *cough Bernier cough*. Not sure he can break out of that Quebec base though. He doesn't have the free market thing going for him like Bernier. O'Toole strikes me as the guy who would win in an old style delegated convention, but he's a bit too bland to win under the current rules IMO. Who knows, maybe he wins like Scheer did last time Tongue.

I can see Pollievre winning if there isn't a credible Western candidate. SoCons + Western base + enough of Ontario, should be plenty to win. That's a big if though.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #57 on: January 09, 2020, 10:41:15 am »

As things currently stand, I guess I'd give a very tepid vote to Pollievre. He's too much of a bulldog and he doesn't pass DC Al Fine's patented Will-He-Betray-SoCons-TestTM, but my main priorities were that the leader be a social conservative and not a Westerner, and he clearly is the best candidate of the bunch based on that. *Shrug*
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #58 on: January 09, 2020, 01:52:09 pm »

Gladu is in and Ambrose will announce her intentions next week.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #59 on: January 10, 2020, 08:45:22 am »

Fortier is out.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #60 on: January 10, 2020, 06:25:47 pm »


Had no real chance, not a household name except for political junkies, still should maybe run as more strong candidates they can get in Quebec the better.  And also unlike Scheer, should give them a more prominent role as most of them understand province better.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #61 on: January 11, 2020, 08:43:30 pm »

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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #62 on: January 14, 2020, 05:20:14 pm »

Ted Falk considering, Rempel and Ambrose probably won't run.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #63 on: January 15, 2020, 08:52:07 am »

Ambrose out.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #64 on: January 15, 2020, 12:06:31 pm »
« Edited: January 15, 2020, 02:41:35 pm by RogueBeaver »



Harper has resigned from the Fund board.

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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #65 on: January 15, 2020, 12:25:09 pm »

So Gladu is going to be the token female candidate? lol...

With Ambrose out, the Tories can say goodbye to winning the next election. Especially if they elect Poilievre (sorry RB).
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #66 on: January 15, 2020, 01:15:01 pm »

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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #67 on: January 15, 2020, 01:39:11 pm »

So Gladu is going to be the token female candidate? lol...

With Ambrose out, the Tories can say goodbye to winning the next election. Especially if they elect Poilievre (sorry RB).

Eh, I don't see how Ambrose would've fixed the party's Western-centric problems (which IIRC Angus Reid found was even more of a problem than Scheer's social conservatism).

MacKay or Deltell (or yes even Pollievre) would be better on that front. Tongue
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mileslunn
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« Reply #68 on: January 15, 2020, 04:01:10 pm »

So Gladu is going to be the token female candidate? lol...

With Ambrose out, the Tories can say goodbye to winning the next election. Especially if they elect Poilievre (sorry RB).

Other two leaders male so while a female leader an asset not a requirement.  I do agree though Poilievre if chosen would hand the next election to Trudeau on a silver platter.  MacKay and O'Toole I think could win but far from certain and a lot would depend on campaign, events, and platform.  Charest won't become leader so pointless discussing how well he would do in GE.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #69 on: January 16, 2020, 12:21:14 pm »

After all my talk about the West-centric Tory party, it looks like there might not even be an MP from the Western caucus in the race Tongue
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adma
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« Reply #70 on: January 16, 2020, 07:20:00 pm »

After all my talk about the West-centric Tory party, it looks like there might not even be an MP from the Western caucus in the race Tongue

Or even former MPs, if we count Rona Ambrose.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #71 on: January 17, 2020, 11:22:01 am »



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DL
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« Reply #72 on: January 17, 2020, 12:13:51 pm »

Its interesting that in the last CPC leadership contest there were several social conservatives in the mix such as Scheer, Trost and Lemieux (at the time Bernier was supposedly more of a libertarian but he has since revealed himself to be a social conservative too). So far in this year's contest its not clear if there will be ANYONE who is an unabashed SoCon even running.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #73 on: January 17, 2020, 01:23:29 pm »

Its interesting that in the last CPC leadership contest there were several social conservatives in the mix such as Scheer, Trost and Lemieux (at the time Bernier was supposedly more of a libertarian but he has since revealed himself to be a social conservative too). So far in this year's contest its not clear if there will be ANYONE who is an unabashed SoCon even running.

There might be but some unknown name.  I think after loss, its pretty social conservatism is a vote loser and most people committed to the party want to win not just be leader to promote a certain agenda, they also want to implement it too.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #74 on: January 17, 2020, 01:38:47 pm »

Its interesting that in the last CPC leadership contest there were several social conservatives in the mix such as Scheer, Trost and Lemieux (at the time Bernier was supposedly more of a libertarian but he has since revealed himself to be a social conservative too). So far in this year's contest its not clear if there will be ANYONE who is an unabashed SoCon even running.

I'm not sure anyone in my circles would call Bernier a socon haha Tongue

But yes, that's an interesting point. The rules this time make it very difficult for a backbencher to make a factional run this time, and there aren't exactly a ton of socons on the front bench. What's more, even the supposed 'soft socon' candidate has already thrown socons under the bus in the French press.

That leaves ~25-30% of the party without a candidate. It will be interesting to see how the social liberal candidates will approach these voters. Winning the socons in a soconless race would be a huge bump, but overpromising could lead to problems in the election both with the media and the socons themselves.
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