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January 28, 2020, 08:34:51 am
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  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, VirginiŠ)
  Will Democrats win back the AR governorship at any point in the next 20 years?
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Question: Will they?
#1
Yes
 
#2
No
 
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Author Topic: Will Democrats win back the AR governorship at any point in the next 20 years?  (Read 1175 times)
Bern Notice
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« on: December 18, 2019, 06:10:55 pm »

Seems AR is one of the very last states that would vote for a Dem governor, I can see them winning even OK before winning there again.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #1 on: December 18, 2019, 06:29:19 pm »

It's very unlikely, but I wouldn't say it's completely impossible. If it happens, it'll take a very unpopular Republican incumbent, a weak GOP candidate (who may or may not be said incumbent), a strong, moderate Democrat, and a good national environment.
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gracile
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« Reply #2 on: December 18, 2019, 07:55:20 pm »

Barring a major realignment or a Roy Moore scenario, I would say no.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #3 on: December 18, 2019, 08:20:51 pm »

Just as likely as the GOP winning Cali governorship in the next 20 yrs
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Senator ON Progressive
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« Reply #4 on: December 18, 2019, 10:10:24 pm »

Barring a major realignment, I'd say no. 20 years is a long time though.
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Oashigo
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« Reply #5 on: December 18, 2019, 10:14:57 pm »

They could, given how fluky governorships can be. I would bet against it, though. Arkansas is probably one of the last states to go Democratic.
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Orser67
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« Reply #6 on: December 18, 2019, 11:00:50 pm »

Voted yes, though not with a lot of conviction. 20 years = 5 elections, and if JBE and Beshear can win, then I think the right candidate in the right circumstances could win AR.
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TML
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« Reply #7 on: December 18, 2019, 11:48:44 pm »

It's not entirely impossible, if the Republicans put up a candidate with baggage severe enough to depress turnout in Republican strongholds.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #8 on: December 19, 2019, 12:08:20 am »

Barring a major realignment, I'd say no. 20 years is a long time though.
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Eastern Kentucky Demosaur fighting the long defeat
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« Reply #9 on: December 19, 2019, 03:14:27 am »

They could, given how fluky governorships can be. I would bet against it, though.
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Intell
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« Reply #10 on: December 19, 2019, 03:20:00 am »

Anything can happen in a governors race.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #11 on: December 19, 2019, 01:33:48 pm »

Can they? Sure.

Will they? No.
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538Electoral
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« Reply #12 on: December 19, 2019, 02:24:18 pm »

No
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Basil
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« Reply #13 on: December 19, 2019, 02:48:24 pm »

I'm going to stake an unpopular claim and say they will. Twenty years is a really long time in politics. The 2000 elections were about twenty years ago, the 2040 elections are a long ways off. I'd be shocked if every governor's mansion hasn't had at least one victory by each party by then.

In 2000, Colorado and Virginia were practically safe for Bush. The Dakotas were almost uniformly Democrats. They controlled the legislatures of nearly the entire South. Things are the same until they're suddenly not.
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Xing
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« Reply #14 on: December 19, 2019, 03:04:21 pm »

Given that Arkansas is one of the states most representative of the Republican Party and has ousted Democrats at all levels, I doubt it. Even in a re-alignment or blue tsunami, I think Arkansas would be one of the last states to fall.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #15 on: December 19, 2019, 03:06:01 pm »

They could, given how fluky governorships can be. I would bet against it, though. Arkansas is probably one of the last states to go Democratic.

Agreed. It's remarkable, though, that amidst of the 2010 Tea Party wave, Arkansas reelected a Democratic governor with 65% of the vote who swept every single county.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #16 on: December 20, 2019, 03:10:36 am »

They could, given how fluky governorships can be. I would bet against it, though. Arkansas is probably one of the last states to go Democratic.

Agreed. It's remarkable, though, that amidst of the 2010 Tea Party wave, Arkansas reelected a Democratic governor with 65% of the vote who swept every single county.

Almost no state shifted as fast as AR from Dem to GOP over recent years. Mark Pryor ran unopposed for reelection in 2008, Tom Cotton most likely will next year. At the national level, it even trended R from 2004 to 2008.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #17 on: December 20, 2019, 05:30:44 am »

They could, given how fluky governorships can be. I would bet against it, though. Arkansas is probably one of the last states to go Democratic.

Agreed. It's remarkable, though, that amidst of the 2010 Tea Party wave, Arkansas reelected a Democratic governor with 65% of the vote who swept every single county.

Almost no state shifted as fast as AR from Dem to GOP over recent years. Mark Pryor ran unopposed for reelection in 2008, Tom Cotton most likely will next year. At the national level, it even trended R from 2004 to 2008.

Well, relatively few Blacks, no really BIG cities, not many universities, and some other factors. Rather natural....
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #18 on: December 22, 2019, 12:43:58 am »

Would take a Chappaquiddick level event
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NoobMaster69
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« Reply #19 on: January 14, 2020, 11:55:03 am »

Not unless the R governor manages to do something horrible
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CEO of Bernie Sanders
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« Reply #20 on: January 14, 2020, 12:00:51 pm »

Considering Kentucky and Kansas, it wouldn't surprise me, but it's unlikely.
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UncleSam
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« Reply #21 on: January 14, 2020, 04:54:48 pm »

In the last twenty years which governorís mansions has one party been shut out of?
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #22 on: January 14, 2020, 04:58:34 pm »

In the last twenty years which governorís mansions has one party been shut out of?

Republicans: WA, OR, DE
Democrats: TX, NE, FL, SD, ND, ID, UT
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HarrisonL
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« Reply #23 on: January 15, 2020, 09:21:46 am »

Definitely not.
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Indy Texas
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« Reply #24 on: January 15, 2020, 06:57:11 pm »

No. It would require something like a very unpopular GOP incumbent combined with a very divisive GOP primary and a Democratic nominee who checks all the right boxes (basically a repeat of Louisiana 2015).
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