2000: John Kerry the Democratic nominee

[President Johnson]

For whatever reason, Al Gore declines to run for president and John Kerry gets the Democratic nomination in 2000. How does he fare against Dubya four years earlier?

[darklordoftech]

Kerry’s opposition to the death penalty, military spending, and the Kuwait War wouldn’t hurt him as much, if at all, in a low-crime, pre-9/11 election and he wouldn’t have the flip-flopping issue. Kerry would also be stronger in Ohio than Gore and “Tweedledee and Tweedledum” attacks wouldn’t be as effective. I feel like Kerry would have been more suited to 2000 for the reasons I mentioned while Gore would have been more suited to 2004 because he could say, “I’ve always supported military spending, I’ve always been a hawk, I voted for the Persian Gulf War, and I’ve always supported the death penalty, but even I knew Iraq was a bad idea.” Gore would also be likely to attack Bush for brushing off warnings about Al-Qaeda and Tora Bora and would remind voters that Clinton tried to strike Bin Laden (see how in 1992, attacked HW for allowing Hussein to get away with things before the invasion of Kuwait).

[Suburbia]

Kerry’s opposition to the death penalty, military spending, and the Kuwait War wouldn’t hurt him as much, if at all, in a low-crime, pre-9/11 election and he wouldn’t have the flip-flopping issue. Kerry would also be stronger in Ohio than Gore and “Tweedle and tweedledum” attacks wouldn’t be as effective. I feel like Kerry would have been more suited to 2000 for the reasons I mentioned while Gore would have been more suited to 2004 because he could say, “I’ve always supported military spending, I’ve always been a hawk, I voted for the Persian Gulf War, and I’ve always supported the death penalty, but even I knew Iraq was a bad idea.”

Why, then?

Does Kerry pick Gephardt in 2000?

Does Kerry need OH or FL or just IA+MO?

[brucejoel99]

Kerry would likely pick Dick Gephardt as a running mate (he wanted him as his running mate in '04, but was convinced to go with Edwards instead).

As for the result itself, let's not forget that Kerry carried NH in 2004, & that was during an election which Republicans won by about 3%, so surely he would've done so in 2000, when it would've been enough to deliver 271 EV's (&, thus, the Presidency) to Kerry.

[President Johnson]

Kerry would likely pick Dick Gephardt as a running mate (he wanted him as his running mate in '04, but was convinced to go with Edwards instead).

As for the result itself, let's not forget that Kerry carried NH in 2004, & that was during an election which Republicans won by about 3%, so surely he would've done so in 2000, when it would've been enough to deliver 271 EV's (&, thus, the Presidency) to Kerry.

The question is, could Kerry hold onto the states Al Gore won by a hair? He carried New Mexico by like 391 votes or so (in total less than Florida). Iowa, Wisconsin and Oregon were also extremely close. This could move moved the needle into Bush's favor.

[morgankingsley]

He would do much worse than Gore

[538Electoral]

He wouldn't win Oregon, Wisconsin, New Mexico or Iowa. I don't think Kerry would've won NH either. So Bush wins 301-237.