VA-Gov 2021: Herring for AG after submitting to resident political overlord T-MAC

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

let's get a megathread going for what became an unexpectedly interesting race this past year

After a year where he was credibly accused, twice, of sexual assault, Lt. Gov. Justin Fairfax announced on the Washington-area NPR syndicate that he is planning on running for Governor in 2021.

Virginia’s Lt. Governor Justin Fairfax Is Running For Governor Despite Sexual Assault Allegations - Daniella Cheslow, WAMU

Herring is, as far as I can tell, still is planning on running for gov as well (he announced in late 2018 and said he was still planning on it in February in the midst of... the scandal)

It'll be fun seeing what happens in a Herring vs. Fairfax cagematch and if anybody makes the jump from the HoD or Senate to run. Also will be interesting to see how a state party which hasn't held unilateral control in decades handles this very bizarre race.

Final note:

https://twitter.com/SenhorRaposa/status/1208066613158842368



link to original survey courtesy of Drew

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

snip

Considering Fairfax's main issue is sexual assault, why on Earth do men widely disapprove while women still (narrowly) approve?

If anything you would expect the opposite pattern for a sexual assault scandal.

I'm pretty confident that the race and sex patterns in that poll just reflect the fact that men and whites are more likely to be Republican and non-whites and women are more likely to be Democrats. There are definitely Democrats who disapprove but the majority still approve which is enough to pull women and non-whites from net unfavorable into favorable on average.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Fairfax self-immolates.

https://twitter.com/FairfaxJustin/status/1234294479563128834

You absolutely love to see when someone says that a black politician is the "son" of a white politician... absolutely horrible look with zero historical appreciation. I'd gladly take another McAuliffe term over this buffoon.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

When we talk about having Hogan/Baker type candidates in any state it's worth noting that we only have these people in 2020 due to rare and likely non-replicable circumstances from 2014.

These two are only around in 2018 because they had a term in 2014, and they lucked out in 2014 because they caught

1a) a wave R year
1b) sufficient support from suburban voters
2) dogsh*t-tier opponents (M*rtha C**kley and *ntonio Br*wn)

(1a) could certainly happen in a Biden administration but (1b) is really unlikely in the Trump era (as others noted the GOP base now is different) and (2) doesn't happen very often.

So saying VA could elect a Hogan/Baker type Republican in the Trump-era ignores a lot of context and a lot of pieces that need to correctly fall into place. Arguably Gillespie would have been a Hogan-type chamber of commerce-type R but the politics of 2017 were different enough from the politics of 2014 that it was obvious he needed to run on MS-13. If Hogan and Baker were running for a first term in 2018 they probably would have had the same thing happen to them.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

I can't see how the Democrats don't suffer somewhat from the follies affecting Messrs Northam, Fairfax, and Herring.  How badly that will hurt remains to be seen.

Northam is term limited and Fairfax will lose the primaries. With the bench VA has Herring is effectively a non-story outside of AG (not to mention he has the mildest offense of these three).

It's hard to quantify but arguably Ds payed a Northam-tax in the 2019 elections, but it was small enough that they still took over both chambers. If they underperform this in 2021 it's probably because a the Biden administration is, uh, not going well instead of anything due to these three. But unless there is something truly shocking which lets the GOP rebound in the suburbs it won't be enough to let Rs win this race.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Del. Jennifer Carroll Foy files paperwork to run for governor

How do you think she would do as a candidate?

I would guess very well. Virginia isn't a state I work in (though it will probably be assigned to me if I move there, which I'm currently planning on) so I haven't seen any numbers on her. But I imagine that her becoming the first Black female governor in America would be an appealing point to many Dem primary voters, especially given the complications with Northam and Herring, and her youthfulness/likely generational change message would do well for her against McAuliffe if he gets in.

VA in 2020/2021 is different than the VA I grew up and voted in but I'd guess that while Foy would be a compelling candidate in a general she'd still probably lose to T-Mac. VA isn't a machine state but Dems there have a lot of party loyalty; there aren't very many Dems in leadership outside of the party mainstream or who haven't been in the party for a while. With gov experience McAuliffe would still be a heavy favorite in that race and I think he'd actually be able to negate some of Foy's possible advantage with AAs if you discount Richmond.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

I would expect, win or lose this year state Democrats try to push someone like Elaine Luria or Abigail Spanberger into the race.

I also think Virgina is a better pickup opportunity for Republicans than New Jersey is, if only because Biden will win Virginia by less than he will New Jersey (I give him roughy 8-11 points in Virginia, as opposed to 13-15 points in New Jersey).

That said, unless Herring (I can't imagine African Americans in this day and age voting for someone for who admitted to wearing blackface) or Fairfax (Democrats both statewide and nationally would abandon him fairly quickly if he won the nomination) were the nominee, Democrats should still win.

I wouldn’t be so sure about that with Herring in particular. He had deep relationships with African American leaders and voters in the state, and his admission came first to the black caucus in the VA legislature. I don’t think he will (or should) be the nominee, but I wouldn’t count him out tbh.

Yeah Herring's offenses are much more light than Northam, whose grave is in part so deep because he repeatedly waffled on the charge. Herring got out in front, admitted it proactively, and it subsided into a relative non-story pretty quickly.

Also in a general who is going to credibly attack Herring for wearing blackface in college? VA AA voters aren't going to take bottom-barrel bait from a typical white Republican over this and what non-white Republicans are there who can weaponize this effectively. Who is going to lead that charge... EW Jackson?

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Virginia’s Riggleman Says He’s Considering Bid for Governor

Congressman Riggleman is thinking about running. Not necessarily as a Republican.

Riggleman should do anything and everything he can to hurt the state GOP. he's a decent guy and they did him dirty.

Riggleman trying to sabotage the VA GOP would basically be a "stop, he's already dead!" moment.

(and yes this is true even in a 2022 Biden-tastrophe midterm)