Impeachment Megathread Part 3

[2016]

Here is my guess on the Senate vote over impeachment, but first something more people should understand: There is a reason Pelosi is giving the articles to McConnell right now, we just don't know what it is. She isn't that dumb to just say no and then change her mind a few weeks later. There is something she knows that we don't.

So there are 100 Senators, and 67 are needed to remove Trump. 47 Democrats (2 indy) and 53 Republicans make up the Senate. It's pretty much a given that Trump will not be removed, but the votes of the Senators will still shape their career later in life.

All but 4 of the Democrats are guaranteed to vote to remove Trump. (43)
John Tester of Montana is from a red state, but for the most part he is a Democrat in policy and is pretty likely to vote for removal.
Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona is pretty centrist and almost a conservative on some issues. She really doesn't have anything to lose either way she goes and she hasn't said anything about impeachment, so for now I will just put her as a uncertain vote that could go either way.
Joe Manchin of West Virginia is even more conservative than Sinema and is pretty much a DINO and will probably vote to acquit Trump as he supports Trump a lot and even voted for Kavanaugh.

On the Republican side everyone is going to acquit Trump. Romney. Murkowski, and Collins aren't fans of the President, but the political pressure is just to high not to support him. It could end their career as Republicans if they want to remove him. They might vote present, but that's only if sh*t really hits the fan.

Best case reasonable senario for Trump: 55 votes to acquit (all GOP + Manchin & Sinema) to 45 votes to remove (all the other Democrats)
Worst case reasonable senario for Trump: 50 votes to acquit(all GOP except 3), 4 votes present (Murkowski, Romney, Collins, and Manchin), and 46 for removal (rest of Democrats)
What probably will happen (middle ground): 54 votes acquit (all GOP + Manchin) 1 vote present (Sinema) and 45 votes to remove (rest of the democrats)

Remember that this is just my prediction and it is okay to disagree, so please be polite to me if you wish to do so

My prediction: Manchin and Doug Jones vote to acquit.  Romney and Murkowski vote to remove.

I suspect one reason Pelosi is now ready to release the articles is that she was holding them just long enough not to impact next week's Democratic debate.

That is my suspection too. On the other hand, Democratic Senators like Klobuchar, Warren and Sanders will be having to spend more time in Washington next week compared to spending time on the Campaign Trail in Iowa. I think this will help Biden and that's what Pelosi wanted. Make Biden the fact Nominee after IA. She is clearly intervening into the Democratic Race here.

The next Debate isn't until February 7th in NH meaning the Senate Trail could be over by then.

[Inmate Trump]

Here is my guess on the Senate vote over impeachment, but first something more people should understand: There is a reason Pelosi is giving the articles to McConnell right now, we just don't know what it is. She isn't that dumb to just say no and then change her mind a few weeks later. There is something she knows that we don't.

So there are 100 Senators, and 67 are needed to remove Trump. 47 Democrats (2 indy) and 53 Republicans make up the Senate. It's pretty much a given that Trump will not be removed, but the votes of the Senators will still shape their career later in life.

All but 4 of the Democrats are guaranteed to vote to remove Trump. (43)
John Tester of Montana is from a red state, but for the most part he is a Democrat in policy and is pretty likely to vote for removal.
Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona is pretty centrist and almost a conservative on some issues. She really doesn't have anything to lose either way she goes and she hasn't said anything about impeachment, so for now I will just put her as a uncertain vote that could go either way.
Joe Manchin of West Virginia is even more conservative than Sinema and is pretty much a DINO and will probably vote to acquit Trump as he supports Trump a lot and even voted for Kavanaugh.

On the Republican side everyone is going to acquit Trump. Romney. Murkowski, and Collins aren't fans of the President, but the political pressure is just to high not to support him. It could end their career as Republicans if they want to remove him. They might vote present, but that's only if sh*t really hits the fan.

Best case reasonable senario for Trump: 55 votes to acquit (all GOP + Manchin & Sinema) to 45 votes to remove (all the other Democrats)
Worst case reasonable senario for Trump: 50 votes to acquit(all GOP except 3), 4 votes present (Murkowski, Romney, Collins, and Manchin), and 46 for removal (rest of Democrats)
What probably will happen (middle ground): 54 votes acquit (all GOP + Manchin) 1 vote present (Sinema) and 45 votes to remove (rest of the democrats)

Remember that this is just my prediction and it is okay to disagree, so please be polite to me if you wish to do so

My prediction: Manchin and Doug Jones vote to acquit.  Romney and Murkowski vote to remove.

I suspect one reason Pelosi is now ready to release the articles is that she was holding them just long enough not to impact next week's Democratic debate.

That is my suspection too. On the other hand, Democratic Senators like Klobuchar, Warren and Sanders will be having to spend more time in Washington next week compared to spending time on the Campaign Trail in Iowa. I think this will help Biden and that's what Pelosi wanted. Make Biden the fact Nominee after IA. She is clearly intervening into the Democratic Race here.

The next Debate isn't until February 7th in NH meaning the Senate Trail could be over by then.

Just curious, why do you think Jones will vote to acquit?

He doesn't have anything to lose by voting for removal; I'm sure he knows he's not going to win reelection.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Here is my guess on the Senate vote over impeachment, but first something more people should understand: There is a reason Pelosi is giving the articles to McConnell right now, we just don't know what it is. She isn't that dumb to just say no and then change her mind a few weeks later. There is something she knows that we don't.

So there are 100 Senators, and 67 are needed to remove Trump. 47 Democrats (2 indy) and 53 Republicans make up the Senate. It's pretty much a given that Trump will not be removed, but the votes of the Senators will still shape their career later in life.

All but 4 of the Democrats are guaranteed to vote to remove Trump. (43)
John Tester of Montana is from a red state, but for the most part he is a Democrat in policy and is pretty likely to vote for removal.
Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona is pretty centrist and almost a conservative on some issues. She really doesn't have anything to lose either way she goes and she hasn't said anything about impeachment, so for now I will just put her as a uncertain vote that could go either way.
Joe Manchin of West Virginia is even more conservative than Sinema and is pretty much a DINO and will probably vote to acquit Trump as he supports Trump a lot and even voted for Kavanaugh.

On the Republican side everyone is going to acquit Trump. Romney. Murkowski, and Collins aren't fans of the President, but the political pressure is just to high not to support him. It could end their career as Republicans if they want to remove him. They might vote present, but that's only if sh*t really hits the fan.

Best case reasonable senario for Trump: 55 votes to acquit (all GOP + Manchin & Sinema) to 45 votes to remove (all the other Democrats)
Worst case reasonable senario for Trump: 50 votes to acquit(all GOP except 3), 4 votes present (Murkowski, Romney, Collins, and Manchin), and 46 for removal (rest of Democrats)
What probably will happen (middle ground): 54 votes acquit (all GOP + Manchin) 1 vote present (Sinema) and 45 votes to remove (rest of the democrats)

Remember that this is just my prediction and it is okay to disagree, so please be polite to me if you wish to do so

My prediction: Manchin and Doug Jones vote to acquit.  Romney and Murkowski vote to remove.

I suspect one reason Pelosi is now ready to release the articles is that she was holding them just long enough not to impact next week's Democratic debate.

That is my suspection too. On the other hand, Democratic Senators like Klobuchar, Warren and Sanders will be having to spend more time in Washington next week compared to spending time on the Campaign Trail in Iowa. I think this will help Biden and that's what Pelosi wanted. Make Biden the fact Nominee after IA. She is clearly intervening into the Democratic Race here.

The next Debate isn't until February 7th in NH meaning the Senate Trail could be over by then.

Just curious, why do you think Jones will vote to acquit?

He doesn't have anything to lose by voting for removal; I'm sure he knows he's not going to win reelection.

It's possible he won't vote to acquit, but I'm assuming he'll hold out hope of reelection until he knows who his opponent is.  Although unlikely, it could be Roy Moore again.

[ProudModerate2]

Giuliani associate Lev Parnas turns over thousands of pages of documents to impeachment investigators.

An attorney for Lev Parnas, the indicted associate of Rudy Giuliani, has turned over photos, dozens of text messages and thousands of pages of documents to House impeachment investigators in an effort to win his client an audience with lawmakers.

Joseph A. Bondy, Parnas' New York attorney, traveled to Washington, DC, over the weekend to hand-deliver the contents of an iPhone 11 to Democratic staff on the House Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, according to a series of Bondy's tweets.

... Parnas has also provided investigators with documents, recordings, photos, text messages on What's App, an encrypted messaging platform, and materials from a Samsung phone, according to Bondy. Material from two other devices, an iPad and another iPhone, are also expected to be shared with them.

https://us.cnn.com/2020/01/13/politics/lev-parnas-house-documents/index.html

Thousands of pages of information!
There must be a handful of evidence of "wrong doing" in here, that trump and Giuliani are sweating bullets over.
Maybe Pelosi will hold back on sending the impeachment articles to the Senate, if they quickly see that some of this stuff is super-damning. Therefore they can further investigate, and send additional articles to Moscow-Mitch for pleasure reading.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://mobile.twitter.com/CBSEveningNews/status/1216830524385386498

Those four include Romney, Collins, Murkowski, possibly Gardner and Alexander. 

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://mobile.twitter.com/CBSEveningNews/status/1216830524385386498

Those four include Romney, Collins, Murkowski, possibly Gardner and Alexander. 

Nancy keeps winning!

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://mobile.twitter.com/CBSEveningNews/status/1216830524385386498

Those four include Romney, Collins, Murkowski, possibly Gardner and Alexander. 

Quoting myself here, but for those who want to just cast this off as GOP Senators feigning impartiality:

If (IF) this truly came from White House officials, then it's a pretty significant statement.  It's certain that the administration has been keeping tabs on the pulse of the GOP wing and if they're expecting enough "defections" (even though I don't like the usage of that word) to allow witnesses in the trial, IMO that strongly indicates that Susan Collins' claim to be working with a small group of Senators to allow witnesses actually has some weight to it. 

[ProudModerate2]

https://mobile.twitter.com/CBSEveningNews/status/1216830524385386498

Those four include Romney, Collins, Murkowski, possibly Gardner and Alexander. 

Nancy keeps winning!

I think you are right.
In a way, it was strategic for Pelosi to hold the articles back, to allow enough time for something like this to actually emerge/grow within the GOP Senate.
But we need to obviously wait and see if there is any truth to all of this.

[Pericles]

My feeling is it is just Republicans playing the expectations game so the inevitable partisan votes look more impressive for Trump.

[GeorgiaModerate]

My feeling is it is just Republicans playing the expectations game so the inevitable partisan votes look more impressive for Trump.

That occurred to me too, but in the long run it matters more for what damaging information may be revealed in testimony.  Even if this doesn't change the final vote totals, it may further damage Trump's standing with the electorate.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/LACaldwellDC/status/1216838355201163266

Lamar!

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/LACaldwellDC/status/1216838355201163266

Lamar!

I for one can't wait to see Josh Hawley humiliated for this stunt.

[Progressive Pessimist]

It makes sense for Alexander to vote that way. He is retiring and has nothing to lose. That's the only time Republicans grow even a quarter of a backbone. What are Enzi's and Roberts' excuses?

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/nicoleperlroth/status/1216866337898680320

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/mitchellreports/status/1216914701411635205
https://twitter.com/emptywheel/status/1216913361557999617

[2016]

Pelosi isn't winning, McConnell is.

Pelosi will soon be accused by Elizabeth Warren, Amy Klobuchar and Bernie Sanders of intervening into the Democratic Primary Process by playing Games with the Impeachment Articles and helping Joe Biden to win Iowa and therefore becoming the the facto Democratic Nominee.

Do you really think it's a coincidence that she is sending these Articles over to the Senate less than three weeks before the Iowa Caucuses? I don't think so. She wants Uncle Joe's Democratic Rivals to be in Washington while Uncle Joe can park himself in IA for the next 3 weeks.

CNN supports my claim
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/01/14/politics/impeachment-watch-january-13/index.html

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-California) has already accused Pelosi intervening into the Democratic Primary on FOX NEWS by holding the Papers this long to help Biden.

[emailking]

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-California) has already accused Pelosi intervening into the Democratic Primary on FOX NEWS by holding the Papers this long to help Biden.

Fortunately, his accusation has no bearing on the truth of the matter.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://mobile.twitter.com/latimes/status/1217098086679556098

[2016]

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-California) has already accused Pelosi intervening into the Democratic Primary on FOX NEWS by holding the Papers this long to help Biden.

Fortunately, his accusation has no bearing on the truth of the matter.

Then you're really blindsided here. Kevin McCarthy is one-hundred percent right here. Klobuchar, Warren and Sanders are basically off the Campaign Trail for the forseeable future and of course this will help Biden and to lesser extend Buttigieg.

[emailking]

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-California) has already accused Pelosi intervening into the Democratic Primary on FOX NEWS by holding the Papers this long to help Biden.

Fortunately, his accusation has no bearing on the truth of the matter.

Then you're really blindsided here. Kevin McCarthy is one-hundred percent right here. Klobuchar, Warren and Sanders are basically off the Campaign Trail for the forseeable future and of course this will help Biden and to lesser extend Buttigieg.

Whether he's right or not, he has no special insight into the matter, so his opinion is random and irrelevant.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/kasie/status/1217163719819583488

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

This sums it up, just so I don't have to post a series of tweets of each point:

https://mobile.twitter.com/ChrisMegerian/status/1217209490862419969

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Manager Resolution on Tomorrow's agenda:



FLOOR SCHEDULE FOR WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 15, 2020   d50a9146-b239-4fea-b2fa-4a21dcb3ba06.gif
HOUSE MEETS AT:   FIRST VOTE PREDICTED:   LAST VOTE PREDICTED:
10:00 a.m.: Morning Hour
12:00 p.m.: Legislative Business   12:30 – 1:30 p.m.   4:00 – 5:00 p.m.
 
One Minutes (15 per side)

A resolution appointing and authorizing managers for the impeachment trial of Donald John Trump, President of the United States

H.R. 1230 – Protecting Older Workers Against Discrimination Act (Rep. Scott (VA) – Education and Labor)


Once the Resolution is called up there will be 10 minutes of debate followed by a vote on the Resolution

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Lev Parnas might have blown this thing WIDE OPEN!.

Yeah, Republicans will still most likely NOT convict but this is still HUGE NEWS!

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/waltshaub/status/1217218939664715777

So much for the "Rudy was operating on his own" theory (which was laughable to begin with).