Impeachment Megathread Part 3

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Here is my guess on the Senate vote over impeachment, but first something more people should understand: There is a reason Pelosi is giving the articles to McConnell right now, we just don't know what it is. She isn't that dumb to just say no and then change her mind a few weeks later. There is something she knows that we don't.

So there are 100 Senators, and 67 are needed to remove Trump. 47 Democrats (2 indy) and 53 Republicans make up the Senate. It's pretty much a given that Trump will not be removed, but the votes of the Senators will still shape their career later in life.

All but 4 of the Democrats are guaranteed to vote to remove Trump. (43)
John Tester of Montana is from a red state, but for the most part he is a Democrat in policy and is pretty likely to vote for removal.
Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona is pretty centrist and almost a conservative on some issues. She really doesn't have anything to lose either way she goes and she hasn't said anything about impeachment, so for now I will just put her as a uncertain vote that could go either way.
Joe Manchin of West Virginia is even more conservative than Sinema and is pretty much a DINO and will probably vote to acquit Trump as he supports Trump a lot and even voted for Kavanaugh.

On the Republican side everyone is going to acquit Trump. Romney. Murkowski, and Collins aren't fans of the President, but the political pressure is just to high not to support him. It could end their career as Republicans if they want to remove him. They might vote present, but that's only if sh*t really hits the fan.

Best case reasonable senario for Trump: 55 votes to acquit (all GOP + Manchin & Sinema) to 45 votes to remove (all the other Democrats)
Worst case reasonable senario for Trump: 50 votes to acquit(all GOP except 3), 4 votes present (Murkowski, Romney, Collins, and Manchin), and 46 for removal (rest of Democrats)
What probably will happen (middle ground): 54 votes acquit (all GOP + Manchin) 1 vote present (Sinema) and 45 votes to remove (rest of the democrats)

Remember that this is just my prediction and it is okay to disagree, so please be polite to me if you wish to do so

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I think there will probably be witnesses but very few that the Democrats wanted while a lot of them will just be for Republican comfort like Hunter Biden, the whistleblower, etc.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

If i were Trump, id have special gold pens made for winning re-election and have them handed out to his cabinet on national TV. Trump can be a pretty droll troll, but doing this would be the best way to kick off his second term.

And every single Representative, Senator, and Governor who has supported him through his first term should get one too!

[Arizona Iced Tea]

If it is decided to call witnesses, the GOP will take heavy advantage of the situation. For every John Bolton demanded by the Democrats there will be a Hunter Biden, Whistleblower, (possibly Joe himself) to testify.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/SenWarren/status/1219818678834823168
Do Senators in general have staff members who do the tweeting for them, because iirc phones aren't allowed on the floor.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Depends on how slow or fast the managers use their time, but if they take 3 days then Trump's defense gets Saturday to present their case which would get more views than the Democrats because more people would be able to watch on a weekend.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Here's how the votes are gonna go down in the history books
For impeachment (House): Democrats and an Independent
Against impeachment (House): Democrats and Republicans

For removal (Senate): Democrats and Independents
Against removal (Senate): Republicans

[Arizona Iced Tea]

When Trump's team gets their 24 hours for their case, watch the GOP senators applaud every single sentence.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

When Trump's team gets their 24 hours for their case, watch the GOP senators applaud every single sentence.

They get imprisoned if they say anything/don't sit in silence, under the rules. Or at least they are supposed to, if the rules are followed.

So I think you are confusing the GOP Senators with Trump - it is Trump, not them, who belongs in prison.

The GOP is the party of Trump though. And yes, I know it is illegal to not be quiet in the trial, but I still think there will at least be the urge for the GOP senators to cheer.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

When Trump's team gets their 24 hours for their case, watch the GOP senators applaud every single sentence.

*** John Roberts bangs the gavel as GOP SENs are led out gradually one by one and going limp civil disobedience as they are physically removed from the chamber ***

And then there was One, the only one, the last one, who chose to voluntarily walk out of the chamber, rather than be removed, as an epic final act of dignity but yet still of defiance and solidarity. The nerve that House DEMs voted for an impeachment inquiry, and a full House voted on Impeachment.... but yet they could not abandon their leader, otherwise he would abandon them and they would be replaced by better robots and sycophants and toadies than they....

As the last one (Any guesses Atlas?) walked out, the single tear ran down his/her face, when he/she realized they no longer loved Big Brother, but they had no other choice....

Marsha Blackburn?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

If Rudy and Hunter come to testify will that count as witnesses.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I have a feeling McConnell is going to have to allow witnesses because his party really wants Hunter Biden at the trial.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

The house votes against impeachment in a bipartisan fasion
And it looks like the Senate will vote against removal in a bipartisan fasion after what Manchin has said about Hunter Biden

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I hope the GOP does the right thing and calls Hunter Biden to testify. 70% of Republicans want witnesses and would like to know why Hunter Biden was in Ukraine the way he was.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Looks like the aquittal vote is coming and Manchin might vote for Trump's favor
That makes this a bipartisan effort against impeachment(house) and a bipartisan effort against removal(senate)

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I honestly hope the GOP the votes to support witnesses like Hunter Biden. It would
A) Remove the narrative that no witnesses were called
B) Give the American people info about what he was doing in Ukraine and barisma
Come on turtle, do the right thing

[Arizona Iced Tea]

What time will be the actual vote for witnesses and the actual vote for removal be?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/tonyr951/status/1223100767822733312

[Arizona Iced Tea]

America is weeping at this vote.

Most of America doesn't care and doesn't even know what impeachment is.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

America is weeping at this vote.

Most of America doesn't care and doesn't even know what impeachment is.

It's actually a pretty popular topic.

Impeachment is such a popular topic that the soap operas usually get 2x higher TV ratings than the trial when shown on the broadcast networks in the afternoon. It's such a popular topic that a Democratic focus group took 80 minutes to even mention the topic, and when they did they dismissed it as partisan nonsense.

Only hyper-partisans care about impeachment.

And only Republican dumbasses think this was a win for Trump.

Ok

[Arizona Iced Tea]

So interesting:
Closing Arguments Monday 11am to 3pm ET and then Senators Sanders, Warren, Klobuchar and Bennet can go to Iowa. They will barely make it. From Washington to Des Moines takes about two to three Hours.

And if I were the Defense Team I'd use maximum time to inflict the most damage possible to those 4 Senators.

They're the Reason McConnell couldn't get it done tonight.

What if McConnell holds the trial late into the night on Monday, and if Sanders wins Iowa he won't be able to give a victory speech

[Arizona Iced Tea]

So interesting:
Closing Arguments Monday 11am to 3pm ET and then Senators Sanders, Warren, Klobuchar and Bennet can go to Iowa. They will barely make it. From Washington to Des Moines takes about two to three Hours.

And if I were the Defense Team I'd use maximum time to inflict the most damage possible to those 4 Senators.

They're the Reason McConnell couldn't get it done tonight.

What if McConnell holds the trial late into the night on Monday, and if Sanders wins Iowa he won't be able to give a victory speech

Once closing arguments are done Senators can leave until the vote, unless they intend to speak.

Yeah, but is he going to fly all the way to Iowa?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Don't worry, Pelosi is welcome to impeach him again.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Collins, Tillis, Gardner and McSally will lose their seats over this and Dems can net the Senate

I'm not that optimistic. Gardner is the only surefire loser of these four.

Gardner will, but he was going to go no matter what so now it is 52-48
Collins is tossup to tilt R but let's just give it to the Dem for the scenario 51-49
Tillis will win, NC will go for Trump again, (why would people support Trump and vote against Tillis) still 51-49
McSally is pure tossup for now, but let's just give it to the Dem for this scenario 50-50
You forgot about Jones though which will flip R, so at the end it is 51R-49D

[Arizona Iced Tea]

What a morally deprived party. Though when your base is nothing but internet trolls and morons who couldn’t get a college degree I guess that’s the end result

You do realize that internet trolls love being called morons and idiots right? So if that is what your belief is about Trump supporters, it is only going to make them stronger.
This is why Fox News fails when they try to attack AOC.