Impeachment Megathread Part 3

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/AaronBlake/status/1214228968188059648

Interesting...

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/geoffgarin/status/1214598427742494720

Click to read the whole (very interesting) thread, or see the unrolled version at https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1214598422822559745.html.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Interesting prediction...

https://twitter.com/BillKristol/status/1215028722648190977

I think it's plausible but may be too optimistic.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Here is my guess on the Senate vote over impeachment, but first something more people should understand: There is a reason Pelosi is giving the articles to McConnell right now, we just don't know what it is. She isn't that dumb to just say no and then change her mind a few weeks later. There is something she knows that we don't.

So there are 100 Senators, and 67 are needed to remove Trump. 47 Democrats (2 indy) and 53 Republicans make up the Senate. It's pretty much a given that Trump will not be removed, but the votes of the Senators will still shape their career later in life.

All but 4 of the Democrats are guaranteed to vote to remove Trump. (43)
John Tester of Montana is from a red state, but for the most part he is a Democrat in policy and is pretty likely to vote for removal.
Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona is pretty centrist and almost a conservative on some issues. She really doesn't have anything to lose either way she goes and she hasn't said anything about impeachment, so for now I will just put her as a uncertain vote that could go either way.
Joe Manchin of West Virginia is even more conservative than Sinema and is pretty much a DINO and will probably vote to acquit Trump as he supports Trump a lot and even voted for Kavanaugh.

On the Republican side everyone is going to acquit Trump. Romney. Murkowski, and Collins aren't fans of the President, but the political pressure is just to high not to support him. It could end their career as Republicans if they want to remove him. They might vote present, but that's only if sh*t really hits the fan.

Best case reasonable senario for Trump: 55 votes to acquit (all GOP + Manchin & Sinema) to 45 votes to remove (all the other Democrats)
Worst case reasonable senario for Trump: 50 votes to acquit(all GOP except 3), 4 votes present (Murkowski, Romney, Collins, and Manchin), and 46 for removal (rest of Democrats)
What probably will happen (middle ground): 54 votes acquit (all GOP + Manchin) 1 vote present (Sinema) and 45 votes to remove (rest of the democrats)

Remember that this is just my prediction and it is okay to disagree, so please be polite to me if you wish to do so

My prediction: Manchin and Doug Jones vote to acquit.  Romney and Murkowski vote to remove.

I suspect one reason Pelosi is now ready to release the articles is that she was holding them just long enough not to impact next week's Democratic debate.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Here is my guess on the Senate vote over impeachment, but first something more people should understand: There is a reason Pelosi is giving the articles to McConnell right now, we just don't know what it is. She isn't that dumb to just say no and then change her mind a few weeks later. There is something she knows that we don't.

So there are 100 Senators, and 67 are needed to remove Trump. 47 Democrats (2 indy) and 53 Republicans make up the Senate. It's pretty much a given that Trump will not be removed, but the votes of the Senators will still shape their career later in life.

All but 4 of the Democrats are guaranteed to vote to remove Trump. (43)
John Tester of Montana is from a red state, but for the most part he is a Democrat in policy and is pretty likely to vote for removal.
Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona is pretty centrist and almost a conservative on some issues. She really doesn't have anything to lose either way she goes and she hasn't said anything about impeachment, so for now I will just put her as a uncertain vote that could go either way.
Joe Manchin of West Virginia is even more conservative than Sinema and is pretty much a DINO and will probably vote to acquit Trump as he supports Trump a lot and even voted for Kavanaugh.

On the Republican side everyone is going to acquit Trump. Romney. Murkowski, and Collins aren't fans of the President, but the political pressure is just to high not to support him. It could end their career as Republicans if they want to remove him. They might vote present, but that's only if sh*t really hits the fan.

Best case reasonable senario for Trump: 55 votes to acquit (all GOP + Manchin & Sinema) to 45 votes to remove (all the other Democrats)
Worst case reasonable senario for Trump: 50 votes to acquit(all GOP except 3), 4 votes present (Murkowski, Romney, Collins, and Manchin), and 46 for removal (rest of Democrats)
What probably will happen (middle ground): 54 votes acquit (all GOP + Manchin) 1 vote present (Sinema) and 45 votes to remove (rest of the democrats)

Remember that this is just my prediction and it is okay to disagree, so please be polite to me if you wish to do so

My prediction: Manchin and Doug Jones vote to acquit.  Romney and Murkowski vote to remove.

I suspect one reason Pelosi is now ready to release the articles is that she was holding them just long enough not to impact next week's Democratic debate.

That is my suspection too. On the other hand, Democratic Senators like Klobuchar, Warren and Sanders will be having to spend more time in Washington next week compared to spending time on the Campaign Trail in Iowa. I think this will help Biden and that's what Pelosi wanted. Make Biden the fact Nominee after IA. She is clearly intervening into the Democratic Race here.

The next Debate isn't until February 7th in NH meaning the Senate Trail could be over by then.

Just curious, why do you think Jones will vote to acquit?

He doesn't have anything to lose by voting for removal; I'm sure he knows he's not going to win reelection.

It's possible he won't vote to acquit, but I'm assuming he'll hold out hope of reelection until he knows who his opponent is.  Although unlikely, it could be Roy Moore again.

[GeorgiaModerate]

My feeling is it is just Republicans playing the expectations game so the inevitable partisan votes look more impressive for Trump.

That occurred to me too, but in the long run it matters more for what damaging information may be revealed in testimony.  Even if this doesn't change the final vote totals, it may further damage Trump's standing with the electorate.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/LACaldwellDC/status/1216838355201163266

Lamar!

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/kasie/status/1217163719819583488

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/waltshaub/status/1217218939664715777

So much for the "Rudy was operating on his own" theory (which was laughable to begin with).

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/woodruffbets/status/1217224122582884352

Rudy is setting the gold standard for underbusment.

[GeorgiaModerate]

This could be interesting:

https://twitter.com/JoshNBCNews/status/1217520653701648386

[GeorgiaModerate]

Parnas seems serious about all this.

https://twitter.com/KatiePhang/status/1217568392443580417

[GeorgiaModerate]

We are now entering the beginning of a sham proceeding in which Trump will ultimately be acquitted, as we all knew the outcome would be from the start. And this should be good indication of where Susan Collins is headed: https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1217535138151780353. She's throwing "cold water" on the new evidence that has surfaced, and is playing the same games which she played with Kavanaugh.

The only sham going on here is being done by you guys. Trump is as dead to rights guilty as you can get but he’ll be acquitted because you guys care about nothing but holding power our democracy be damned  

It's hilarious how once again, you label me a Trumpist, when I've made clear at this point that I'm not (and I've made it clear ad nauseum that I'm not an actual Republican either). I'm only laying out the bare reality of the situation. A bare reality which even you seem to admit.

Cal, I will be the first to acknowledge that you're no Trumpist and have an open mind, but in fairness he said "you guys" clearly meaning blue avatars in general, in which you're one of a small group of exceptions.

Returning to the topic at hand, I have to say that the change in Susan Collins over the last couple of years has been one of the more disappointing developments to me as a centrist.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/KFaulders/status/1217631713997869061

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/RadioFreeTom/status/1217632514015219712

[GeorgiaModerate]

Problem is it’s an easy deflection. They can just say he’s an unreliable witness. Next.

He has texts from Rudy and others mentioning Trump being in on it though

Yeah, but have you been paying attention the last 3 years? All it takes is one soundbite to put anything in doubt and Trumpists repeat it until it's reality, facts be damned. "Lev Parnas is a crook and you can't believe a word he says." That'll be the narrative even if he has Rudy nudies.

Let's hope he doesn't.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1217783392378544129

So we finally get an investigation from Ukraine after all...but probably not the one Trump wanted.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ukraine is on a roll today:

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1217799987939225600

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/kyledcheney/status/1217821794217885697

So much for the "Trump did it, but it's not actually criminal" defense.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Now some housekeeping

Whenever you say things like that, I picture a bunch of cleaners moving through the chamber emptying the wastebaskets, dusting the desks, etc.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/seungminkim/status/1217941591211626496

[GeorgiaModerate]

If i were Trump, id have special gold pens made for winning re-election and have them handed out to his cabinet on national TV. Trump can be a pretty droll troll, but doing this would be the best way to kick off his second term.

And every single Representative, Senator, and Governor who has supported him through his first term should get one too!

Given that it is politically motivated to dull Trumps chances of re-election in 2020, it would be ironic to see that it only serves to null the chances of a Democratic nominee being elected.

"It is a hoax". No question.

^^^
File under "willful blindness".

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ReutersPolitics/status/1218186452938510338

The dream team

Yeah, Ken Starr is not a popular figure in suburban Texas after the whole Baylor fiasco.

What has Starr been up to since he got shown the door by Baylor?  Did he go back to private practice?

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/jdawsey1/status/1218186135916163073

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1218302613315301381

The White House: "INCOMING!"