2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, Bihar

[jaichind]

So 27 out of the 230 MP assembly seat will also see by-elections which makes it a mini-assembly election for MP.  25 out of the 27 are INC rebels of the Jyotiraditya Scindia faction that went over to the BJP bring down the MP INC government.  The BJP will be running almost all the INC rebels as the BJP candidate.  In 2018 the results in these 27 seats were

                       Contest       Won        Vote share
BJP                     27              1             36.28%
BJP rebels            4               0               2.39%
INC                    27             26             47.32%
BSP                    25               0              8.06%

The BSP has significant in about half of these seats and in a first in decades the BSP will contest these by-elections which is clearly bad news for INC.

My rough guess for result will be something like
         
             Win       Vote share
BJP        19              49%
INC         8               43%

mostly because a good part of the 2018 INC vote would migrate over to the BJP since the local INC MLAs have gone over to the BJP.  It will not be a wipeout because the economic impact of the COVID-19 lockdown will play a role to weaken BJP support.

[jaichind]

At the LJP meeting it seems LJP has decided to contest up to 143 out of the 243 seats in Bihar without making a clear break with JD(U).   It seems behind the scenes party patriarch Ram Vilas Paswan is still working to try to keep LJP within the NDA while those around LJP leader Chirag Paswan are for making a break.  JD(U) reiterated that JD(U) did not have an alliance with LJP in 2005 2010 and 2015 assembly elections and that if LJP is stay in the NDA it will have to accept the leadership of JD(U) and accept Nitish Kumar as the NDA CM candidate. 

The BJP is also working behind the scenes to try to keep LJP within the alliance.  RJD is already making signals that LJP would be welcomed to join UPA.  It is also possible that if LJP does not get a deal that it likes it could instead join up with BJP rebel Yashwant Sinha's UDA alliance or form an alliance with RJD splinter JAP in some sort of third front arrangement. 

The core issue here is this election will most likely be Nitish Kumar's last and as soon as he leaves the political scene the JD(U) will most likely fall apart.  Parties like BJP RJD and LJP area all trying to maneuver to pick up the biggest share of the JD(U) once it does fall apart sometime around or right before 2025.  LJP has to make a call on if staying with the BJP with a share of power but without grassroots organization gives it a chance to eat into the JD(U) in 2025 or will growing its grassroots even without power will put it in the best position to eat into the JD(U) in 2025.
 

[jaichind]

https://www.business-standard.com/article/politics/monsoon-session-parliament-gets-down-to-business-under-new-normal-120091401304_1.html

At least 27 MPs have COVID-19.  This is out of 543+254 = 797 MP
That would be an infection rate of around 3.5%

[jaichind]

https://zeenews.india.com/india/big-twist-in-bihar-assembly-election-lalu-yadavs-estranged-daughter-in-law-aishwarya-rai-may-contest-against-husband-tej-pratap-yadav-2308538.html

Big twist in Bihar Assembly election: Lalu Yadav's estranged daughter-in-law Aishwarya Rai may contest against husband Tej Pratap Yadav

It seems RJD leader Tej Pratap Yadav's estranged wife Aishwarya Rai might run against her husband as the JD(U) candidate. 

Tej Pratap Yadav married Aishwarya Rai who is the daughter of key RJD leader Chandrika Rai with great fanfare in 2015


(2015 wedding with Lalu Yadav (temporary let out of jail), JD(U) leader Nitish Kumar, and LJP leader Ram Vilas Paswan with the couple)

Within 6 months the couple's relationship blew up with Tej Pratap Yadav demanding a divorce and his father Lalu Yadav refusing to allow it.   In 2019 LS election Chandrika Rai nominated to run on the RJD ticket over the objection of Tej Pratap Yadav who actively worked to undermine his father-in-law's election campaign.  Chandrika Rai lost in the Modi wave.

In early 2020 Chandrika Rai finally defected to JD(U).  Now his daughter Aishwarya Rai might end up as the JD(U) candidate to run against her husband in this ongoing family drama.

[jaichind]

https://indianexpress.com/article/india/bihar-election-jdu-looks-to-contest-115-seats-wants-bjp-to-fight-128-accommodate-ljp-6600402/

It seems JD(U) is proposing the seats are split BJP 128 JD(U) 115 with BJP then allocating from its quota to LJP while JD(U) allocating from its quota to HAM.  HAM will get something like 7-9 seats and there is no way LJP will accept anything less than 40 so what the JD(U) is proposing is the BJP contesting some 20+ seats less than JD(U).  No way BJP accepts this without a mass revolt within BJP.  How the BJP will need to manage JD(U)'s need to contest more seats than BJP, LJP's demands and internal pressure to contest a lot of seats will be a test of Bihar BJP's balancing skills.   If they poll it off they deserve to win this upcoming assembly election.

[jaichind]

Bihar election schedule announced



Results will be Nov 10th

[jaichind]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/ready-to-be-in-grand-alliance-if-rashtriya-janata-dal-leadership-changes-rashtriya-lok-samata-partys-upendra-kushwaha-2300975

There are signs that RLSP is not happy with its seat allocation and Tejashwi Yadav being the CM candidate and could exit the UPA.  Similar noises are also coming from VIP.  Main problem is running separately would mean wipeout for these two parties and NDA will for sure not take them.  On possibility is if LJP exits NDA or if BJP breaks up with JD(U) then perhaps RLSP or VIP  could end up with NDA.  Until then these noises most likely are schemes of getting more seats in seat sharing talks.

[jaichind]

The Quint data on Bihar caste breakdown



RJD is based on Yadavs and JD(U) is based on  Kurmi.  BJP draws its strength from Upper Castes and the trader based Baniya.  INC also has some residual strength with Upper Castes.  LJP and HAM are Dalit based parties.

[jaichind]

https://indianexpress.com/article/india/sad-ends-alliance-with-bjp-over-farm-bills-6617248/

In Punjab one of NDA's most long time BJP ally SAD leads NDA over new farm reform laws.  In Haryana INLD splinter and BJP ally JJP it seems might be doing the same. 

These new farm reform legislation is actually a very good idea as it allows farmers to sell across state lines and not be bound to sell at specified markets controlled by the various farmer organizations.  In Punjab and Haryana SAD and JJP are very integrated into the local farmer organizations and this reform law strikes at their monopoly over farmer economic activity.  In reality these farmer organizations play a  necessary role like transporting the farm produce to the farmer markets just like futures traders play a necessary role of price stabilization.    Still now the reforms the BJP is pushing for is putting it into conflict with its allies in Northwest India.

[jaichind]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/patna/rlsp-holds-seat-sharing-talks-with-bjp/articleshow/78339532.cms

In Bihar it seems RLSP has left UPA and are in seat sharing talks with the BJP.   If RLSP does join abroad NDA then within the NDA it seems there are now two sub-blocs: JD(U)-HAM and BJP-LJP-RLSP. This whole thing does not make sense as I find it impossible all these parties can come to an agreement on how to share out 243 seats.  If RLSP does get a seat sharing deal with BJP then it is another sign that BJP and JD(U) might part ways for 2020 assembly elections.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/elections/assembly-elections/bihar-assembly-elections-2020/bihar-elections-congress-gives-rjd-ultimatum-on-seats/articleshow/78341686.cms

In the meantime, INC is pretty much demanding RJD accommodate INC in around 70-75 seats or else INC is ready to go it alone.  Part of the reason why INC could be doing this is INC sense that the election will be a 3 way contest (JD(U) vs BJP vs  RJD) and in such a situation INC going on its own becomes more viable ergo it is going to racket up its price to go along with RJD.

Hopefully the alliance math will become more clear in a few days.

[jaichind]

C-Voter poll on Bihar





              Seats     Vote share
NDA        151           41.9%
UPA          74           34.1%
Others      18           24.0%

Best CM candidate

JD(U) Nitish Kumar         30.9%
RJD Tejashwi Yadav         15.9%
BJP Sushil Modi                9.2%
RJD Lalu Yadav                8.3%
LJP Ram Vilas Paswan       6.5%
INC Tariq Anwar               2.1%

Pre-election polls just as the polls are announced tend to overestimate the ruling party.   This sort of poll seems to indicate a narrow NDA victory.  With 24.2% of polled being in favor of a RJD CM candidate shows the RJD base is mostly intact.

[jaichind]

http://www.uniindia.com/news/east/bihar-assembly-polls-rjd-offers-50-seats-to-congress-25-to-left-parties/2179560.html

In Bihar, with RLSP gone from UPA, the latest RJD offer seems to be RJD 150 INC 50 Left parties (CPI CPM CPM-ML) 25 with the rest going to VIP and JMM.   This is despite an INC ultimatum that INC contest around 70-75 seats or INC is out.  The 25 seats to Left parties seems large and not proportionate to the limited number of seats where they have any real strength.  CPI-ML might have some strength in around 10 seats and CPI/CPM has some strength in perhaps a couple of seats each.  I  suspect a lot of these 25 seats are BJP or JD(U) strongholds non-win seats. 

[jaichind]

The C-Voter survey has some data that should make the BJP jump.

56.7% are angry at Nitish Kumar government and want him out
29.8% said they are angry at  Nitish Kumar government  but do not want him out

So nearly 88% of the voter base are angry at Nitish Kumar government.  There is a risk that the BJP might be "Shackled to a corpse" like Ludendorff commented about Germany's alliance with Austria-Hungary in WWI. 

What is going on here is that RJD Tejashwi Yadav is not seen as a viable alternative to Nitish Kumar which is the basis behind JD(U)-BJP's lead over RJD-INC.  Still even if JD(U)-BJP comes back to power it is clear that Nitish Kumar brand has been exhausted and really cannot continue future.  The BJP should really consider running separately from JD(U).

[jaichind]

For the 28 by-elections in MP it is assumed that for 26 of them the BJP will field the INC defectors.  Out of the 28 seats INC already announced 24 candidates.  7 of them are defectors from the BJP and 2 are defectors from BSP.  So for at least 7 out of the 28 elections we will see the same candidates from the BJP and INC but with the candidates reversed.

[jaichind]

In Bihar it seems BJP-RLSP talks has broken down and RLSP has announced it will run in a separate front allied with BSP.  This makes it more likely that somehow BJP can get JD(U) and LJP to come to an agreement to form a common front. Having to accommodate RLSP and prevent BJP rebellions is just not possible while making sure JD(U) and LJP are satisfied.   

[jaichind]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Hathras_gang_rape_and_murder

The gang rape of a Dalit girl by a gang of Upper Caste men in Hathras of UP and alleged coverup by the police followed by the death of the girl has led to mass Dalit protest in UP and elsewhere.  This is coming at a bad time for the BJP with elections in Bihar and mini-assembly elections in MP where the Dalit vote will be critical to victory.

[jaichind]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/bihar-assembly-polls-tejashwi-to-lead-alliance-rjd-to-contest-144-seats-congress-gets-70/articleshow/78463343.cms

In Bihar UPA deal struck.  It seems RJD backed down and agreed to INC at 70 seats.  The seat sharing seems to be

RJD       144
INC         70
CPI(ML)   19
CPI           6
CPM          4

They also claim that JMM and VIP will be brought onboard.  I guess RJD-INC will distribute some from their quota to JMM and VIP.  So this deal is not really 100% yet.

RLSP-BSP will run as a third front and in the NDA side LJP will make a call today on if they will continue in NDA.  Even if LJP dose not I am sure they will not run in seats that BJP are running but go all out to run in JD(U) seats and in some cases running Upper Caste candidates to try to win the BJP vote.  One has to wonder if this ends up being the cause if LJP is just a BJP agent to cut into the JD(U) seat count to try to avoid any chances of  a post election JD(U)-INC alliance.

[jaichind]

Updates on Bihar

1) https://indianexpress.com/article/india/bihar-election-nda-bjp-jdu-ljp-seat-sharing-6700395/

On the NDA side, it seems it will be JD(U) and BJP to contest 119 each with HAM to contest 5 with the BJP allocating from its quota to LJP.  It does not matter that much as the BJP most likely can part with at most 20-25 and LJP will accept nothing less than 35.

As such

2) https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/bihar-assembly-polls-chirag-paswan-ljp-to-meet-over-bihar-polls-may-announce-candidates-2304894

It seems LJP will contest alone.  Although most likely LJP will not contest against BJP but will contest JD(U) and HAM.  LJP's strategy is to try to cash in on the pro-Modi but anti-Nitish Kumar vote (aka BJP vote) in seats that the BJP is not running.  LJP is delaying formally announcing this mostly because I suspect a good part of the LJP MPs are fearful that LJP might up getting kicked out of the NDA at the federal level.  Chirag Paswan has to calm them down that this move only means LJP leaves NDA at the Bihar assembly level but not at the federal level.

3) One the UPA side it seems VIP was not happy with the 12 seats it got (it wanted 25 and VIP leader    Mukesh Sahani being made DCM candidate) and will exit UPA.  VIP claims it will try to join NDA but that is unlikely as it will get at most 4-5 seats from NDA at this point.  It might end up running with RLSP-BSP alliance. 

3) On RLSP it seems that a week or two ago  ago RLSP wanted 20+ seats from UPA but RJD was only willing to part with 8-9 seats given RJD's assessment of RLSP base.  RLSP went to talk to BJP and got an even smaller offer ergo it decided to go with a Third Front approach forming an alliance with BSP.  This seems to have triggered some defections of key leaders in RLSP and BSP to RJD as many think this election will end up being fairly bi-polar in terms election winners.

[jaichind]

In Bihar

https://www.outlookindia.com/newsscroll/mukesh-sahniled-vip-to-contest-all-243-seats-in-bihar/1948473

VIP will contest at 243 seats as it is clear they will get near nothing from NDA in terms of seats.

What is funny about this is whole affair is that at the UPA press conference where the seat sharing arraignments were announced VIP leader Mukesh Sahani was in attendance and even publicly backed the seat sharing results


(Mukesh Sahani is on the far left of the picture)

But at the same press conference he then held a separate meeting with the media saying that RJD backstabbed him and that VIP will exit UPA.

And within a couple of days in another press conference VIP leader Mukesh Sahani (who backed NDA in 2015 Bihar assembly elections before defecting to UPA for the 2019 LS elections) announced in a similar victory  press conference he just attend with the UPA that VIP will contest alone.


 

[jaichind]

The fun begins already in Bihar

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/patna/bihar-tejashwi-tej-booked-after-ex-rjd-mahadalit-leader-planning-to-independently-contest-election-shot-dead/articleshow/78477394.cms

"Tejashwi Yadav, Tej Pratap Yadav booked after ex-RJD mahadalit leader planning to independently contest election shot"

A RJD leader Shakti Kumar Mallik was shot Sunday.  It seems he was planning to rebel and run as a independent. RJD leader Tejaswhi Yadav (RJD leader and UPA CM candidate), Tej Pratap Yadav(brother of Tejaswhi Yadav, son of Lalu Yadav, and a on and off again RJD rebel) , Anil Kumar Sadhu (RJD leader but also son-in-law of LJP patriarch Ram Vilas Paswan as well as brother-in-law of LJP leader Chirag Paswan,  He rebelled against LJP in 2015 and joined RJD)

Even if this murder is politically motivated most likely they cannot it on RJD high command.  Still being accused of murder is not a good look for the RJD leader and UPA CM candidate as the campaign starts.

[jaichind]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bihar-assembly-elections-2020-ljp-115555112.html

"Bihar Assembly Elections 2020: LJP to Field Candidates Against JD(U), Breaks Alliance With Nitish Kumar"

As expected LJP leaves NDA in Bihar but will not break its alliance with BJP.  So it will run candidates against JD(U)-HAM but not BJP.  This will clearly cause a rift in the JD(U)-BJP alliance as LJP will try run as a de facto BJP candidate in JD(U)-HAM seats running in the name of Modi.  LJP claims that after the election BJP-LJP will form a government. 

This could trigger anger on the JD(U) base in BJP seats and drift away from BJP.  In many ways this is worse for the NDA than a complete LJP break.  At least then the pro-NDA voter can just vote JD(U)-BJP-HAM and be fairly united in their vote.  Now the NDA will face splinters in its base at a time that Nitish Kumar is not that popular.

[jaichind]

Now it seems the election will be

JD(U)-BJP-HAM vs LJP (tactical alliance with BJP) vs RJD-INC-CPI(ML)-CPI-CPM-JMM vs RLSP-BSP vs VIP it is time to handicap the race

1) JD(U)-BJP-HAM clearly have the larger social base assuming HAM can bring in a chunk of the Dalit vote and from that point of view would give it the edge.  A lot will depends on candidates.  BJP has hold on the Upper Caste which would be difficult to dislodge if BJP is in the fray.  When JD(U) is in the fray it seems both INC and LJP plans to try to run Upper Caste candidates to eat into the BJP vote.  The JD(U) plan is to get Modi to campaign for JD(U) to pull in the Upper Caste vote for JD(U).

2) From a CM candidate point of view it is JD(U)'s Nitish Kumar vs RJD Tejashwi Yadav.  There is a lot of anti-incumbency against Nitish Kumar but  Tejashwi Yadav is not seen as credible so it is JD(U)-BJP-HAM edge here more from a TINA point of view.  Tejashwi Yadav who is 31 is trying to make a bid for the youth vote although LJP's Chirag Paswan who is 38 is trying to do the same.  Modi is pretty popular with the youth as well and JD(U)-BJP-HAM will try to use that to its advantage.

3) The Hathras gang rape of a Dalit girl followed by attempted coverup has riled up the Dalit movement across Northern India and will clearly hurt the BJP.  At this stage it is damage control and JD(U)-BJP-HAM hope that any anti-BJP Dalit votes are splintered and not concentrated on RJD-INC bloc.

4) Various smaller parties will clearly run and cut into the votes of the bigger blocks.  RLSP will hope to cut into the Kurmi vote that is aligned with JD(U).  LJP clearly want to keep its Dalit vote base.  VIP will cut into the lower OBC Mulla vote.  RJD splinter JAP would want to cut into the Yadav vote and AIMIM clearly will want to cut into the Muslim vote.  All these smaller parties in the fray most likely hurts RJD-INC bloc more than the JD(U)-BJP bloc but that is assuming that Nitish Kumar still has a positive image like in 2005 2010 2015.  This time around it might not be so easy.

5) The role of how the BJP and JD(U) base can merge is seriously compromised by the LJP split while backing BJP.  This could create a rift between the JD(U) and BJP vote bases and will clearly hurt JD(U) more. 

6) RJD CM candidate Tejashwi Yadav being accused murder just as the campaign starts clearly is not good but most likely will have a minor impact.

All things equal as long as JD(U) and BJP bases could fuse and the anti-Nitish Kumar not consolidate JD(U)-BJP-HAM is most likely headed for victory but the scale of victory will most likely be small.

[jaichind]

Bihar voting phases map

[jaichind]

https://www.indiatoday.in/elections/story/bihar-rjd-denies-ticket-rape-accused-gives-it-to-their-wives-1728488-2020-10-05

"Bihar: RJD denies ticket to rape-accused, gives it to their wives"

RJD claims they will only run "clean" candidates this time.  So a couple of RJD MLAs accused of rape were dropped.  Instead their wives were nominated.

[jaichind]

Last minute alliance shifting are moving in favor of NDA

VIP, which was expected to run by itself, joined NDA after LJP dropped out and will be given 11 seats out of the BJP quota.  

So NDA seat sharing is

JD(U)   115
BJP      110
VIP        11 (from BJP quota of 121)
HAM        7 (from JD(U) quota of 122)

This is a fairly positive seat share distribution as JD(U) remains nominally the senior partner but BJP contests almost as many seats as JD(U) which should be able to calm down internal JD(U) and BJP pressure.

One problem here is some BJP leaders in seats given to JD(U) are "defecting" to LJP and running for LJP.  If more of these "defections" take place it could break on the ground JD(U)-BJP collaboration

On the UPA side, even though RJD was suppose to give seats out of its 144 quota to VIP and JMM, VIP quit and joined NDA, and now JMM also claims that the RJD has "betrayed" it and will run in around 10 seats alone.  So UPA seat allocation is

RJD       144
INC         70
CPI(ML)   19
CPI           6
CPM          4

The RJD has mostly calculated that parties like RLSP VIP and JMM would struggle to shift their vote based over to RJD-INC and have gambled on just running on a narrow front hoping for a consolidation of the anti-NDA anti-Nitish Kumar vote.