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February 21, 2020, 08:07:57 pm
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jaichind
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« on: January 04, 2020, 07:25:48 pm »
« edited: February 09, 2020, 11:25:07 am by jaichind »

Delhi assembly elections expected in Feb 2020
J&K assembly elections now that it has become an Union territory with Ladakh bifurcated will have to be sometime in mid 2020.
Bihar assembly elections most likely Oct 2020.  
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jaichind
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« Reply #1 on: January 04, 2020, 07:28:41 pm »

No polls yet for Delhi assembly elections but the CW is that if it is going to be fought on local issues AAP will have the edge versus BJP having the edge if national issues predominate and Modi will play a key role.

https://www.latestly.com/india/politics/delhi-assembly-elections-results-2020-predictions-by-satta-bazaar-matka-players-bet-high-on-aap-returning-to-power-no-good-news-for-bjp-and-congress-1446308.html

The Delhi betting markets now currently have it at

AAP 54-56
BJP 11-13
INC  3-4

I suspect BJP will do better than that given that pre-election polls and betting markets tend to overestimate the incumbent if there is not large pro-incumbent wave which is more rare.
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jaichind
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« Reply #2 on: January 06, 2020, 04:28:05 pm »

Delhi election date set.  Election will be on Feb 8th and counting will be on Feb 11th

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Delhi_Legislative_Assembly_election
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jaichind
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« Reply #3 on: January 06, 2020, 04:38:16 pm »

First polls out shows AAP landslide

IANS-CVoter poll

           Seats     Vote share
AAP       59            53%
BJP         8             26%
INC         3              5%



I suspect this poll exaggerates the AAP lead.  Also if these are the vote share numbers then the AAP most likely will win 67 (like in 2015) or even 70 out of 70 seats.  But the poll for sure show that AAP is in good position to win re-election
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jaichind
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« Reply #4 on: January 06, 2020, 04:41:48 pm »

In many ways the BJP in Delhi now have the "INC disease"  The issue here is should BJP project a CM candidate as an alternative to Delhi AAP CM Arvind Kejriwal.  If you do not then you are just counting on Modi to fetch the votes which proved ineffective in the various 2019 assembly elections.  If you project a BJP CM candidate there are several BJP factions within Delhi and projecting one of the faction leaders as CM candidate would lead to revolt from other BJP faction leaders.  Bring in someone from the outside will anger local BJP cadres.  This situation is similar to the INC dilemma in many states.  Now BJP have the same problem and now BJP is now stuck and how to handle the CM candidate issue.
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jaichind
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« Reply #5 on: January 06, 2020, 11:13:03 pm »

One reason why the BJP LS Delhi landslide in 2019 was not going to produce a BJP victory in the 2020 assembly elections was that even in 2019 LS elections post-election surveys shows that only 58% of the 2019 LS BJP vote planned to vote BJP in assembly elections.

CSDS Delhi post-election survey





If you take the CSDS post-election survey and computed support for assembly elections it comes out to

AAP 34.0
BJP  33.5
INC  14.5

It seems that there was a further swing against the BJP

Of course I do not buy the Cvoter poll.  I doubt BJP will be lower than 35%.  In 2015 pre-election polls had it at BJP and AAP neck-to-neck so there was a lot of INC->AAP tactical voting.   This time around it is clear that AAP is ahead so some of the 2015 INC vote would flow back to INC from AAP.  I doubt INC will be below 10%  Likewise with CW view that AAP has the edge over BJP the vote for minor parties like BSP and other independents will most likely rise.  Even if polls show AAP well ahead I suspect it is something like

AAP  45%
BJP   35%
INC  10%

which should produce a AAP victory of around 50 seats or so. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #6 on: January 07, 2020, 03:48:09 pm »

Some history of Delhi elections

Delhi has been an Union territory from the beginning





Delhi had an assembly with a CM in the 1950s but the post was abolished in the late 1950s.  In 1993 the Delhi assembly was reestablished with the post of CM.

For LS elections Delhi tend to be a bellwether for Northern India and swings with the rest of Northern India and often India as a while. Delhi historically have been a 2 party system with INC vs BJP (or proto-BJP BJS).

1977 Delhi LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC             7                 0               30.15%

JNP             7                 7               68.15%

Anti-INC way carries JNP which is dominated by BJS in Delhi to a landslide victory just like in the rest of Northern India.


1980 Delhi LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC             7                 6               50.40%

JNP             7                 1               37.90%

JNP(S)+      6                 0                 7.12% (CPI was part of JNP(S))

INC(U)        4                 0                 0.83%

JNP split and INC wave led to a INC landslide which is replicated across rest of Northern India.  What is now BJP still part of JNP at this time



1984 Delhi LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC             7                 7               68.72%

BJP+           7                 0               27.38% (LKD and JNP part of BJP+)

Post-Indira Gandhi assassination INC wave crushes combined opposition effort in a massive INC landslide just like the rest of Northern India.



1989 Delhi LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC             7                 2               43.41%

BJP+           6                 4               32.21% (tactical alliance with JD)

JD              3                 1               16.28% (tactical alliance with BJP+)

BSP            5                 0                 3.65%

Tactical alliance between BJP and JD defeats INC just like the rest of Northern India.


 
1991 Delhi LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC             7                 2               39.57%

BJP             7                 5                40.21%

JD               7                0                14.21%

BJP surge based on the Hindu consolidation of the Ram Temple movement gives BJP narrow victory over INC.  This election was held before the Rajiv Gandhi assassination and matches the BJP surge in the rest of Northern India where the vote was held before the Rajiv Gandhi assassination.  
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jaichind
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« Reply #7 on: January 12, 2020, 10:53:44 am »

In 1993 Delhi was made a UT with an assembly and CM role and the first assembly elections since the 1950s were held.  Given the surge of the BJP in the Hindi heartland over the Ram Temple movement and traditional BJP strength in Delhi it was not a surprise that the BJP won with a significant number of INC rebels adding to the scale of INC defeat as the anti-INC vote clearly shifted to BJP.

1993 Delhi assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC             70              14               34.48%

INC rebel                        3                 2.55%

BJP              70             40               42.82%

JD               70               4                12.65%

BSP             55               0                 1.88%


The BJP captured the CM spot and was able to build on this victory to a larger vote share victory in the LS elections in 1996 where the INC core vote came out but swamped by the consolidation of the anti-INC vote behind BJP as JD pretty much disappears from the scene in Delhi.

1996 Delhi LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC             7                 2               37.29%

AIIC(T)        7                0                 2.25% (INC splinter)

BJP             7                 5               49.62%

JD+            7                 0                 4.64% (CPI CPM were part of JD+)


JD formed the government at the center backed by INC which broke down by 1998 leading to fresh LS elections.   INC and JD bungling at the federal level clearly helps BJP and mitigate clearly anti-incumbency building up against the BJP at the state level due BJP inter-factional battles which would lead the BJP to change CM both in 1996 and 1998.  The net effect is still a strong BJP victory.

1998 Delhi LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC             7                 1               42.64%

BJP             7                 6               50.73%

JD               5                 0                2.46%

BSP            6                  0                2.34%
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jaichind
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« Reply #8 on: January 12, 2020, 11:04:53 am »
« Edited: January 12, 2020, 01:18:15 pm by jaichind »

Even thought clear BJP problems at the state level in Delhi did not translate into defeats in the 1996 and 1998 LS elections for BJP in Delhi the 1998 Delhi assembly would be a different story.  BJP put in a rising superstar Sushma Swaraj last minute as CM to try to save the situation but it was too little too late as rising onion prices and anger at overall BJP ineffectiveness led to a significant defeat.

1998 Delhi assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC             70              52               47.76%

INC rebel                        2                 4.85%

BJP+            70             15               34.98% (INLD was part of BJP+)

BJP rebel                        0                 1.25%

BSP             55               0                 3.09%

JD               48               1                 1.80%

This defeat meant that up until this date there would not another BJP CM again.   The INC went with old Gandhi clan ally Sheila Diksh**t whose upper caste background was able to help captured disgruntled upper caste BJP votes in the elections.  With the backing of the Gandhi clan she is able to stay atop of the Delhi INC hierarchy over the various INC factions.
 
Another LS election came when the BJP government fell after AIADMK pulled support.  The resulting Modi wave carried BJP to victory in Delhi on the basis of Vajpayee's popularity was able to overcome INC in its honeymoon period in the state government.  

1999 Delhi LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC             7                 0               41.96%

BJP             7                7                51.75%

JD(S)          1                 0                 1.39%

BSP            3                 0                 2.24%

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jaichind
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« Reply #9 on: January 13, 2020, 05:11:36 pm »
« Edited: January 13, 2020, 05:16:40 pm by jaichind »

CM Sheila Diksh**t was seen as being successful and an united INC was able to win re-election in 2003 with a tiny swing toward the BJP as the BJP still recovers from its disastrous term in office in 1993-1998.

2003 Delhi assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC             70              47               48.13%

INC rebel                        0                 0.68%

NCP            33                1                 2.24%

BJP             70              20               35.22%

BJP rebel                        0                 1.46%

BSP+          41               0                  5.95%


The BJP did well in other 2003 assembly elections and called a LS election early in 2004 and was unexpectedly defeated in Delhi and India overall.

2004 Delhi LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC             7                 6               54.81%

BJP             7                 1                40.67%

BSP            7                 0                 2.48%

The anti-BJP vote in Delhi looks like consolidated behind INC.  The shock BJP defeat across India led to an UPA regime coming to power at the federal level.
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jaichind
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« Reply #10 on: January 13, 2020, 05:17:31 pm »

For 2008 Delhi assembly elections there were some anti-incumbency against the INC, especially with its Dalit base but INC managed to win re-election as most of those votes went to BSP and not BJP.

2008 Delhi assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC             70              43               40.31%

NC rebel                         0                 0.87%

NCP            16                0                 1.38%

BJP+          70              23               36.84% (SAD was part of BJP+)

BJP rebel                        0                 0.44%

BSP            70               2                14.05%


For the 2009 LS election there was as pro-INC wave in part of urban India which included Delhi and saw a landslide victory by INC

2009 Delhi LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC             7                 7                57.11%

BJP             7                 0                35.23%

BSP            7                 0                  5.34%

The UPA won re-election across India in 2009 overall as well.
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jaichind
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« Reply #11 on: January 14, 2020, 08:18:21 am »

The third INC term in Delhi and second UPA term at the federal level were plagued with scandals which provoked anti-corruption protests leading to the formation of AAP which had its center in Delhi.  The 2013 assembly election became a 3 way battle between INC BJP and AAP.  AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal running against INC CM Sheila Diksh**t in her seat galvanized AAP leading them to come in a close second to BJP as INC had a last minute collapse.

2013 Delhi assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC             70               7               24.71%

INC rebel                       1                 0.97%

BJP+          70              30               34.20% (SAD was part of INC+)

AAP            70              28              29.68%

JD(U)         27                1                0.88%

BSP           69                0                5.38%

Most of the Dalit surge for BSP in 2008 seems to have shifted to AAP.  Post-election to keep out the BJP the INC backed AAP's Arvind Kejriwal for CM but that only lasted for 50+ days until AAP-INC relations collapsed leading to the assembly to be held in suspension as no party could gather a majority. 

The 2014 LS saw AAP try to press its advantage across board in India but especially Delhi given their 2013 success but was buried by the Modi wave.

2014 Delhi LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC             7                 0                15.22%

BJP             7                 7                46.63%

BSP            7                 0                  1.23%

AAP            7                  0               33.08%

AAP did demonstrate that it was the main rival to BJP in Delhi now and not INC.   When the 2015 Delhi assembly election finally came the AAP was able to consolidate the entire anti-BJP vote and win a massive landslide.

2015 Delhi assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC             70               0                9.69%

BJP+           70               3              32.83% (SAD was part of BJP+)

AAP             70             67              54.55%

BSP            70               0                1.31%

Arvind Kejriwal's AAP was returned to power
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jaichind
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« Reply #12 on: January 14, 2020, 08:24:01 am »

Post 2015 the Arvind Kejriwal AAP government did manage to disappoint and over time the BJP has shown that it was regaining strength in Delhi.   Worst for AAP for while it seems INC was also becoming active again and taking back some of its base from the AAP.  The 2019 LS election saw some attempt by INC and AAP to form some alliance to stop Modi but collapsed to to egos.  The 2019 saw the second Modi wave and a massive BJP landslide.

2019 Delhi LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC             7                 0                22.63%

BJP             7                 7                56.86%

BSP            5                 0                  1.09%

AAP            7                 0                18.20%

AAP being pushed to third place was a shock to the AAP and Arvind Kejriwal.  Post 2019 LS election AAP did a 180 degree turn and shifted away from national politics and toward being the Delhi regional party.  AAP accepting that Modi is popular in Delhi and stopped attacking him but projecting local issues actually worked to the AAP advantage and as the 2020 assembly election approached AAP is seen as having the upper hand especially when the BJP did not seems to be able to come up with a CM candidates given its internal disparage factions.
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jaichind
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« Reply #13 on: January 14, 2020, 08:28:38 am »

VDPA polls on PM Modi approval has Modi doing well in Hindi areas and poorly in Deep South.  Upper South and Assam are sort of OK. AP levels of support is a big jump from last year but Modi doing surprisingly poor in Gujarat.  I guess 24/7 Modi all the time since 2001 will get tiring after 19 years.


Support for who should be PM still have Modi way at the top.  Given Rahul is in theory exiled from INC leadership 17 is not bad.  Main problem would be for BJP "After Modi, Who?"
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jaichind
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« Reply #14 on: January 14, 2020, 09:21:31 am »

https://www.news18.com/news/politics/can-naidu-pawan-kalyan-bonhomie-local-leaders-proposal-see-tdp-janasena-tie-up-ahead-of-local-body-polls-2454789.html

In AP there might be a political realignment where TDP and JSP might from an alliance to take on the YSRCP.  There were talk of TDP perhaps going back to BJP but it was concluded that JSP has a much bigger base in AP than BJP. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #15 on: January 17, 2020, 11:11:59 am »

It seems that SAD which got to contest 4 out of 70 seats will be asking for more from BJP this time.  It seems BJP's Haryana ally JJP will also run in Jat areas and is forcing the BJP into alliance talks.  JJP seems to be asking for 10 seats which is clearly a no go for BJP but I can see them also getting around 4-6 seat allocation from BJP.  BJP's position is relatively weak enough this time vis-a-vis AAP that they might agreed to something like this.  BJP's hope has to be that BJP-JJP-SAD consolidates the old BJP base and INC outperforms and cuts into the AAP vote.
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jaichind
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« Reply #16 on: January 17, 2020, 11:14:00 am »

In AP, JSP did a u-turn and announce an alliance with BJP.  This seems a way for JSP to get more indirect funding given how weak BJP is in AP.  What the BJP really need is for JSP to merge into BJP and for Pawan Kalyan to be the face of the BJP in AP.  It seems JSP is refusing to do this an lose its identity.
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jaichind
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« Reply #17 on: January 19, 2020, 10:38:39 am »

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/delhi-assembly-elections-2020-5-000-rallies-in-20-days-bjps-big-plan-for-delhi-polls-2166091

"5,000 Rallies In 20 Days: BJP's Big Plan For Delhi Elections"

It seems the BJP is going to copy the 2015 AAP election strategy model of many mini-rallies versus a dozen mega rallies.  These rallies will be only a couple of hundred people but in 2015 the AAP strategy of mini-rallies seems to have worked from a micro-targeting point of view.  Main problem of BJP doing this is that this means it is harder to deploy Modi which still a key BJP asset to get out the BJP core vote.   
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jaichind
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« Reply #18 on: January 19, 2020, 10:43:35 am »

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/delhi/bjp-may-give-most-of-remaining-13-seats-to-akali-dal-jdu-jjp/articleshow/73364311.cms

"Delhi assembly elections: BJP may give most of remaining 13  seats to Akali Dal, JD(U), JJP"

BJP have announced 57 candidates out of 70 seats.  It seems a bunch of the remaining 13 will go to allies.  After the Jharkhand setback where BJP lost ground in part due to losing the AJSU alliance the BJP is going out of its way to keep its NDA allies.  It seems SAD will get at least 4 seats (which it got in 2015), JD(U) will get at least 2, and JJP will get 2.   JJP seems to want a dozen seat which for sure is out of the question for BJP so JJP might in the end go its own way.  JD(U) base in Delhi is based on Bihari immigrants most of which went AAP in 2015.  BJP must be hoping JD(U) might try to get this vote base back for BJP.

 
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jaichind
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« Reply #19 on: January 19, 2020, 10:46:45 am »

VDPA poll projects AAP victory with INC being marginalized and BJP getting a positive swing but not enough to overthrow AAP 2015 majority.

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jaichind
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« Reply #20 on: January 19, 2020, 03:58:05 pm »

It seems that INC is also hoping to capture some of the Bihari immigrant vote in Delhi.  INC has allocated 4 seats to its Bihar ally RJD
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jaichind
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E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #21 on: January 20, 2020, 10:58:29 am »

https://www.hindustantimes.com/assembly-elections/bjp-won-t-have-alliance-with-akali-dal-dushyant-chautala-s-jjp-in-delhi/story-n27zOi1c4bPRRQ1T8QeBLL.html

https://www.outlookindia.com/newsscroll/bjp-gives-three-seats-to-jdu-ljp-for-delhi-polls/1713241

"BJP won’t have alliance with Akali Dal, Dushyant Chautala’s JJP in Delhi"
"BJP gives three seats to JD(U), LJP for Delhi polls"

In Delhi, It seems in the end BJP will not have an alliance with SAD and JJP but will hand out 2 seats to JD(U) and 1 to LJP.  JJP will for sure run candidates on its own.  Not clear if SAD will run candidates or just not run.  Not clear what this means for the 100K Sikh votes in Delhi will now flow to.
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jaichind
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #22 on: January 20, 2020, 11:01:08 am »

It seems in that SAD will not run in Delhi as BJP ally over differences over CAA.
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jaichind
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #23 on: January 20, 2020, 02:04:52 pm »

https://www.theweek.in/news/india/2020/01/19/kejriwal-releases-guarantee-card-of-promises-free-bus-rides-mohalla-marshals.html

AAP CM Kejriwal rolls out a 'guarantee card' filled with all sorts of freebies ranging from free power to free bus to free water.  It also promises "mohalla marshals" on public transit to ensure the safety of women using public transit.
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jaichind
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Posts: 13,975
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #24 on: January 21, 2020, 08:08:48 am »

In Delhi it seems Haryana Jat party and BJP ally JJP will not run due to not getting a satisfactory symbol from ECI as it is not a Delhi state parry.   JJP refused to run on BJP symbol.  So BJP will have 2 allies (2 seats for JD(U) and 1 seat for LJP)   INC ally RJD will get 4 seats but will run on INC symbol due to RJD not being a Delhi state party. 

This year there is a big focus on the Bihari immigrant vote. 
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