Does anyone else think that an aging population makes reform harder?

[The Duke]

I was wondering about this the other day, and it seems that younger people usually fvor reform whereas older people like the status quo.  With our aging population, it seems major political reform has gotten harder and harder, examples being Clinton's health care reform and Bush's social security reform, both of which were major reforms that were defeated handily.  Does anyone think an aging population contributes to the difficulty of political reform in the US and in other western nations?

[ilikeverin]

According to baby boomers, being Stubborn Old Farts is for their parents, so I guess it depends on whether said baby boomers keep to their promise(s).

[minionofmidas]

Obviously it depends on what you want to reform, and in whose short-term political interest the proposed reform is felt to be.
Having said that, there's definitely some truth to it.
(And btw - there was a referendum in 2002 about making the term of the Hessian state parliament one year longer. It split the electorate right along generational lines, with elder people across all parties in favor, younger people against.)

[Jacobtm]

I agree that old people probably make any reform harder.

That raises an interesting question though.

When Social Security and Medicare run out, and all the old people start dying off, what will happen? It should seem that since old people will be reduced in number, that it'd be easier to reform it, especially because the living old people will want a better system. However, with old people's numbers being thinned, would it just be easier not to reform it, and never have to deal with SS and Medicare again?

[dazzleman]

I was wondering about this the other day, and it seems that younger people usually fvor reform whereas older people like the status quo.  With our aging population, it seems major political reform has gotten harder and harder, examples being Clinton's health care reform and Bush's social security reform, both of which were major reforms that were defeated handily.  Does anyone think an aging population contributes to the difficulty of political reform in the US and in other western nations?

John, that's a very astute observation.

The reason is very simple -- the older a person gets, the less they care about the future.

It happens in degrees.  Even now, as a relatively young person, I don't care about the future as much as I did when I was a very young adult. 

Firstly, more of my life is behind me and less in front of me, so there's less future to care about. 

Secondly, by a certain age, many people have accumulated enough money to give themselves some protection, and can thereby 'opt out' of the daily struggles of life to an increasing degree.  Young people, unless they have a trust fund that will take care of them for life, don't have this option.

Reform often promises longer-term improvements at the expense of short-term pain and/or uncertainty, and younger people are more willing to take this risk than older ones, given the way they view the cost/benefit continuum in light of what I posted above.

Also, older people are more generally set in their ways and less willing to consider new ideas than younger people.  Sometimes this is a good thing -- younger people sometimes fall for bad ideas because they don't have the life experience to know that these ideas will surely fail, even if they sound good -- but other times, it can be a bad thing since societies need people who are willing to take bold risks in return for great rewards.

Older societies tend to stagnate and not do anything great.  Look at what's happening with Europe.  They become obsessed simply with maintaining what they have, and they end up dying a slow death.  Europe is aging, and the younger people coming in are not acculturated to the European societies and are in many cases hostile and at odds with the older people.

The US doesn't have this problem on a grand scale to anywhere near the same extent as Europe, but we do have an issue with social security reform.  Old people today don't care about the future viability of the system; they only care that it last as long as they're alive.  The Democratic party has seized upon the fears and, frankly, selfishness of older people (as well as other 'disadvantaged' population groups) in order to control their votes, and in the process has put out a great deal of misinformation about this issue such that even some younger people who are getting totally boned by this system don't support reform.

[Gustaf]

It's true to an extent, but you have to remember that some of the great leaders who profoundly affected their nations, Reagan especially come to mind, but also men like Gladstone, CHurchill or Adenauer, were often wuite old.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well wartime leadership isn't the same thing as reform so Churchill is out (and when we decided that we wanted Reform he was thrown out of office as well) and o/c Gladstone is a strange example of someone who became less conservative as he got older. The Gladstone of the 1830's would have *not* been a fan of the Gladstone of the 1880's to put it mildly...

[dazzleman]

It's true to an extent, but you have to remember that some of the great leaders who profoundly affected their nations, Reagan especially come to mind, but also men like Gladstone, CHurchill or Adenauer, were often wuite old.

That's true, but I think the issue has more to do with the age of the population than the leaders.  Older leaders can be reformers, but I do think that older populations make it harder to reform.

[Gustaf]

I do think that one could say Churchill stood for chance during the 30s. I do know about Gladstone's trandformatino...my point was more that old people don't necessarily have to represent old times, they can just as easily lead ahead.

I guess Dazzleman has a point, so yes, generally younger people tend to be more willing to test new things.

[MODU]

Depending on the type of reform, it shouldn't be harder.  There are more "younger" eligible voters than there are "older" voters, so if the reform being proposed is popular with the younger voters, there should be very few reasons that the change doesn't occur.

[Nym90]

Your theory makes sense, John. Older people are more opposed to change of any type. As the baby boom generation enters retirement age, this will become much more problematic.