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January 28, 2020, 07:57:10 am
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  Rate this 2036 map.
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Author Topic: Rate this 2036 map.  (Read 641 times)
Okthisisnotepic.
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« on: January 10, 2020, 08:24:07 am »
« edited: January 10, 2020, 08:27:58 am by Okthisisnotepic. »

What I think the map could look like in 2032-2040.


Edit: I'd change PA back to lean, not likely.  You could interchange OR and IL.  Genuinely unsure about Florida.




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Hey Victor!
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« Reply #1 on: January 10, 2020, 11:32:41 am »

I think DE would flip before NJ but not too unreasonable this far out
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #2 on: January 10, 2020, 11:51:51 am »

Interesting that Republicans made significant inroads in NJ, VT, RI, PA and CT but NY and MA still remain Safe D. Also what happened that caused WA and OR to trend R, and AL, MS, LA, SC to trend D?
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« Reply #3 on: January 10, 2020, 01:34:57 pm »

Interesting that Republicans made significant inroads in NJ, VT, RI, PA and CT but NY and MA still remain Safe D. Also what happened that caused WA and OR to trend R, and AL, MS, LA, SC to trend D?

I assume for AL, MS, LA, SC it's just increased diversity. Potentially the parties are being split along racial lines which explains why NE swung so R, though it doesn't explain MA
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Socialists are Pro-Choice Fascists
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« Reply #4 on: January 11, 2020, 12:22:36 pm »

The 2036 is not going to look like the 2012-2016 trends projected out one more cycle.
It would make as much sense to say, in 1999, that the 2016 map should look like this.
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538Electoral
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« Reply #5 on: January 11, 2020, 05:55:57 pm »

As the previous poster said, Way too early to guess what the 2036 map will look like.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #6 on: January 11, 2020, 06:23:06 pm »

I think the major open question is whether future Dems gain more ground in the West or South?  Also, does NY ever become viable for Republicans?




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Okthisisnotepic.
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« Reply #7 on: January 15, 2020, 12:00:25 pm »

Interesting that Republicans made significant inroads in NJ, VT, RI, PA and CT but NY and MA still remain Safe D. Also what happened that caused WA and OR to trend R, and AL, MS, LA, SC to trend D?


the GOP has already reached it's ceiling with rural whites in the old south, and soon the Boomer gen will begin dying off.  Mississippi is majority-minority, so I predict it will be the first southern "safe R" state to flip, and it's feasible it happens before 2040.  South Carolina will also trend that way in several years (lean R on my map), and I could see LA and AL go to a sub-15 point margin. Appalachia OTOH still has decades of GOP dominance left, IMO.

I think New York and Mass. are too big and urban for the GOP to make any serious inroads, but states that are shrinking like Connecticut and Rhode Island are easier targets.  If NJ declines, I could see the GOP making inroads there as well as Illinois, but not for another 10-15 years at a minimum.  The GOP will also look differently than it does now, it has to to survive.

And I'm surprised no one mentioned Vermont.  The state is fairly poor with a wide wealth gap, extremely white and very rural- it's a ticking time bomb, and I'd put money that it will trend far right in the next 10-15 years.



 
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Anarcho-Statism
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« Reply #8 on: January 15, 2020, 12:45:23 pm »

Interesting that Republicans made significant inroads in NJ, VT, RI, PA and CT but NY and MA still remain Safe D. Also what happened that caused WA and OR to trend R, and AL, MS, LA, SC to trend D?


the GOP has already reached it's ceiling with rural whites in the old south, and soon the Boomer gen will begin dying off.  Mississippi is majority-minority, so I predict it will be the first southern "safe R" state to flip, and it's feasible it happens before 2040.  South Carolina will also trend that way in several years (lean R on my map), and I could see LA and AL go to a sub-15 point margin. Appalachia OTOH still has decades of GOP dominance left, IMO.

I think New York and Mass. are too big and urban for the GOP to make any serious inroads, but states that are shrinking like Connecticut and Rhode Island are easier targets.  If NJ declines, I could see the GOP making inroads there as well as Illinois, but not for another 10-15 years at a minimum.  The GOP will also look differently than it does now, it has to to survive.

And I'm surprised no one mentioned Vermont.  The state is fairly poor with a wide wealth gap, extremely white and very rural- it's a ticking time bomb, and I'd put money that it will trend far right in the next 10-15 years.

I believe Trump is the first sign of a GOP moving past the southern religious right base. Don't get me wrong, conservative evangelicals will probably continue to vote Republican, but we could see a GOP more palatable to irreligious and Catholic northeasterners. It might very well become the white party, but to accomplish that there will have to be some secularization. TL;DR, yeah, their center of gravity moving north makes sense as the religious right loses relevance.
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marty
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« Reply #9 on: January 25, 2020, 01:03:30 am »

something to remember...."whiteness" in america is malleable and everchanging.

By 2036, I think many Hispanics, especially later generations whose parents and even grandparents were born in america, will consider themselves white.

it will follow a smilar trajectory of italians and eastern/southern europeans. these groups off the boat were NOT considered "white" for many years. Now, people of italian, polish, balkan, etc descent are considered in the same group as a WASP.
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Okthisisnotepic.
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« Reply #10 on: January 25, 2020, 06:42:50 am »

something to remember...."whiteness" in america is malleable and everchanging.

By 2036, I think many Hispanics, especially later generations whose parents and even grandparents were born in america, will consider themselves white.

it will follow a smilar trajectory of italians and eastern/southern europeans. these groups off the boat were NOT considered "white" for many years. Now, people of italian, polish, balkan, etc descent are considered in the same group as a WASP.

That, plus intermarriage.  I don't think the country will "look" all that different by 2040 unless immigration increases radically.




It's already the "white party," but I genuinely believe that Northern whites aren't such a cheap date as their Southern counterparts. It's going to have to be more sophisticated than WHITE POWER! — i.e., the GOP will actually have to deliver for working-class whites on the economic front.

That's why I'm hoping the GOP makes inroads to take more pro-worker populist positions, which if timed right with the right messaging could corner the Ds as a party of Wall st, pro-China corporations and the managerial/consultant class.

Sometime (most likely 2024, no later than 2028) the GOP will suffer a devastating electoral loss, and introspection will have to happen to compete at the national level. 

The Nevertrump Rs like to spin a fairy tale about how the party was doing amazing and had a bright future before Trump and the GOP's abysmal numbers with voters born after 1980 happened overnight.  That's a lie, the GOP has been a toxic brand for a long time, and if the party can't figure out how to appeal to voters born after 1980, they're screwed.  Trump just bought them a few years.

It stuns me how few bigwigs in the party understands this...
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #11 on: January 25, 2020, 09:28:11 am »

This map will never happen the rust belt go R and Sunbelt goes D, we thought that this would happen in 2020, but it didnt. Only if the Dems become the WWX party and Rs become the Lincoln party again
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bagelman
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« Reply #12 on: January 25, 2020, 12:48:20 pm »

MS might become more competitive but I'd be surprised if it seriously becomes a swing state.

Horrible Map because you didn't make an effort to find a site that could allow you to change EV numbers.
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