Bush within Margin of Error in New Jersey according to Quinnipiac Poll

[Spin Police]

Kerry is up 3% both with and without Nader on Ballot in New Jersey

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x11300.xml

Is this state actually close?

Democracy Corps Poll has Kerry up 1 or 2% Nationally.

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=200405130

Other than noting a very modesty too democratic a sample, this poll is "Vorlon Recomended"

[Ben.]

Amazed the Undecideds are so small (4%)… I would expect that it would be around 8%, especially with all that has happened… amazingly robust but its sounds about right as far as Kerry’s lead a few points sounds about right.  

[© tweed]

Amazed the Undecideds are so small (4%)… I would expect that it would be around 8%, especially with all that has happened… amazingly robust but its sounds about right as far as Kerry’s lead a few points sounds about right.  

Maybe the poll does a good job of 'eking the leans' out of people

[emergingDmajority1]

what is going on? Bush is tied in NC with Kerry/Edwards? Bush within the margin of error in NJ???

This looks more like the election of 1976. no way should dems be close in NC, or Bush so close in NJ.

the polls are all over the place, where was the Gore/Bush race in NJ on May 18?

maybe it's because Kerry still hasn't picked out a VP yet and is in semi hibernation?

[Smash255]

Does look like an oversampling of Republicans, although still would come out to be closer than we all think it is going to be.  Using 2000 exit poll #'s and the % of support each candidate received Kerry is up by 5 without Nader 4 with Nader.  

Independents in Jersey are pretty much split in this poll, Gore won Independents by double digits last time.  Maybe it will hold true, but I happen to think this poll leaned to the right a bit with its Independents.  If I'm not mistaken Quinnipiac was off quite a bit in 2000 favoring Bush

[TeePee4Prez]

They can't get PA right either.  

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Didn't they also have Hillary and Lazio running neck and neck?

[12th Doctor]

If this poll is accurate, and I'm not saying it is, it is possible that the so called "Security Mom" affect hasn't worn-off yet in NJ.  If this is so, then chances are that it hasn't worn off yet in the Philadelphia area.  If this hold, that could be very good news for Bush come November.

[John]

BUSH MIGHT HAVE A CHACE IN NJ

[Spin Police]

Didn't they also have Hillary and Lazio running neck and neck?

That was Zogby not Quinnipiac

[NHPolitico]

If this poll is accurate, and I'm not saying it is, it is possible that the so called "Security Mom" affect hasn't worn-off yet in NJ.  If this is so, then chances are that it hasn't worn off yet in the Philadelphia area.  If this hold, that could be very good news for Bush come November.

This reminds me of a what-if in New Jersey. Senator Christie Todd Whitman. Bush chooses someone else at EPA. CTW leads NJ bravely after 9/11 and wins Torch's seat.  It should have happened. What actually happened sucked hard for every Republican.  A Senator "Security Mom" would have been a great presence for the NJ-GOP.

[Rococo4]

If this poll is accurate, and I'm not saying it is, it is possible that the so called "Security Mom" affect hasn't worn-off yet in NJ.  If this is so, then chances are that it hasn't worn off yet in the Philadelphia area.  If this hold, that could be very good news for Bush come November.

This reminds me of a what-if in New Jersey. Senator Christie Todd Whitman. Bush chooses someone else at EPA. CTW leads NJ bravely after 9/11 and wins Torch's seat.  It should have happened. What actually happened sucked hard for every Republican.  A Senator "Security Mom" would have been a great presence for the NJ-GOP.

I couldnt agree more.....Whitman would have been Lautenberg I feel.  SHe was a bad pick for the EPA anyways.

Regardless, Kerry is still going to win NJ

[Storebought]

That Bush isn't skinned alive in NJ is almost entirely due to media bleed from his Philadelphia ad campaign. I am certain that his support in NJ is inversely proportional to the distance from the Delaware River.

And boy is Bush spending the dough: 130 million spent so far [!], and only 70 million on hand? Unless the GOP can scrape together a few more rubber chicken fundraising banquets these few months, Bush will have blown his entire stash before Kerry has endorsed a single Soros check.

[Nym90]

EmergingDMajority1--

Great points! I agree totally about Kerry's lackluster effort. He needs to step it up.

If you could send me an email at enyman90@yahoo.com, that would be great.... Thanks.

[ilikeverin]

EmergingDMajority1--

Great points! I agree totally about Kerry's lackluster effort. He needs to step it up.

If you could send me an email at enyman90@yahoo.com, that would be great.... Thanks.

I suppose that means I must give my email out for... certain reasons!

[MAS117]

when it comes down to it kerry will take NJ...kerry needs to focus on grassrots in PA, put some more paid staffers there...