How did the Democrats do so well in 2004 and 2012?
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  How did the Democrats do so well in 2004 and 2012?
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Author Topic: How did the Democrats do so well in 2004 and 2012?  (Read 699 times)
Plankton5165
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« on: January 20, 2020, 05:19:53 PM »

In 2004, I don't know how John Kerry did so well and got 251 electoral votes. He was very close to becoming President!

And in 2012, Romney was tied with Obama with the polls at the very end, when they're tied in the polls at the very end, the Republican usually wins.
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darklordoftech
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« Reply #1 on: January 20, 2020, 05:28:17 PM »

Kerry is the only Democrat to loose the popular vote since Dukakis, so I don’t know how you could say he did well.

Romney wasn’t able to distance himself from Bush’s wars and the recession, nobody likes Bain Capital, and Romney had opposed the auto bailout (this hurt him in the rust belt).
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #2 on: January 20, 2020, 08:06:06 PM »

In 2004, I don't know how John Kerry did so well and got 251 electoral votes. He was very close to becoming President!

And in 2012, Romney was tied with Obama with the polls at the very end, when they're tied in the polls at the very end, the Republican usually wins.

1. Bush did not run a good campaign, truthfully he didn't deserve to win that year, just 150,000 votes different would've made the difference [whether by Ohio, or over the cascade of New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada, and Iowa].

2. Romney was never tied in the state polls of the swing states, the one place he was ahead was North Carolina...and iirc, Obama abandoned efforts there.
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Plankton5165
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« Reply #3 on: January 20, 2020, 09:48:36 PM »

In 2004, I don't know how John Kerry did so well and got 251 electoral votes. He was very close to becoming President!

And in 2012, Romney was tied with Obama with the polls at the very end, when they're tied in the polls at the very end, the Republican usually wins.

1. Bush did not run a good campaign, truthfully he didn't deserve to win that year, just 150,000 votes different would've made the difference [whether by Ohio, or over the cascade of New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada, and Iowa].

2. Romney was never tied in the state polls of the swing states, the one place he was ahead was North Carolina...and iirc, Obama abandoned efforts there.

Romney was also up 1.5 in Florida and down only 0.3 in Virginia, by the way.
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Arbitrage1980
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« Reply #4 on: January 21, 2020, 07:02:12 PM »

In 2004, I don't know how John Kerry did so well and got 251 electoral votes. He was very close to becoming President!

And in 2012, Romney was tied with Obama with the polls at the very end, when they're tied in the polls at the very end, the Republican usually wins.

1. Bush did not run a good campaign, truthfully he didn't deserve to win that year, just 150,000 votes different would've made the difference [whether by Ohio, or over the cascade of New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada, and Iowa].

2. Romney was never tied in the state polls of the swing states, the one place he was ahead was North Carolina...and iirc, Obama abandoned efforts there.

Romney was also up 1.5 in Florida and down only 0.3 in Virginia, by the way.

I just went back and looked at the final RCP averages from 2012. Obama outperformed the polls in every single swing state. And in the national PV, he won by +3.9, compared to the RCP average of +0.7. This was due to huge minority and youth turnout for Obama in 2012 and the missing white voters in the Rust Belt.
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H. Ross Peron
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« Reply #5 on: January 21, 2020, 07:50:05 PM »

Retention of "Blue Wall" first formed in 1988 that produced a lock high-EV total states in the Rust Belt and Upper Midwest such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Minnesota.
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