Rate Florida in a Trump vs. Sanders Race

[Frodo]

Vote. 

[Tekken_Guy]

Lean R

[OSR stands with Israel]

Lean R but closer to Likely R than Tossup

[Sbane]

Might be the deciding state. While I’m not necessarily predicting it, I would not be surprised if it votes to the left of MI and PA. It will likely vote to the left of WI. I’m predicting a 0.2 point Bernie win so it wouldn’t surprise me if Bernie won.

[Ljube]

Safe R.
Too many olds and Cubans who will vote solidly for Trump.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tilt D, as stated before IA, NM, OH and FL in 2008-12 voted D when 278 EC wall secure, Tilt D. Trump isnt gonna go after Bernie that hard due to Bernie being Jewish and closeness to Netanyahu

[Ljube]

Tilt D, as stated before IA, NM, OH and FL in 2008-12 voted D when 278 EC wall secure, Tilt D. Trump isnt gonna go after Bernie that hard due to Bernie being Jewish and closeness to Netanyahu

Nice theory, OC.

[TML]

Tilt D/R at best - if you look at the results of statewide elections in FL during the 2010s, you will notice that it is rather difficult to win this state by more than 2 points.

[Frenchrepublican]

Lean R

Trump wins 51/48

[Frenchrepublican]

Tilt D/R at best - if you look at the results of statewide elections in FL during the 2010s, you will notice that it is rather difficult to win this state by more than 2 points.

The thing is that most elections during the 2010s have been decided by more than two points

[here2view]

Tilt R really but voted Lean R, Trump wins 50-48

[sg0508]

Other than pockets of Broward and Miami-Dade, I don't really see Bernie being a fit at all in the many cultures of Florida.  Plus, remember that the statewide Democratic Party here is one of the worst in the country.

Trump by 3-5 points in the end.  Bernie's only shot here to draw out all the young voters and then really scare the heck of those 65+ concerning Medicare long-term.

[Young Conservative]

Likely R. I actually think Bernie can win the Presidency more easily than some other dems, but I definitely know his path would not involve Florida. The core dem constituencies here (moderate and rich older whites, AfAm voters, and moderate Latinx voters from Venezuela, Cuba, and PR) loathe socialism.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Titanium R.  Hillary beat him 2-1 here in 2016 and he's non-viable in the latest St. Pete poll.  Florida is a very old state with a lot of money, both terrible demographics for him.  Furthermore the Republicans will hammer him on his past support for Castro and general sympathy for failed socialist states (USSR, Cuba, Venezuela, etc.) if they even bother wasting money running ads against him down there.

[junior chįmp]

I don't know tbh. Pure tossup assuming no economic downturn. The idea that Cubans will make this state Safe R because Sanders praised Cuba's public transportation program is more stupidity from Atlas.

[tmthforu94]

Likely R. Don't see any way that Sanders can win considering his awful comments regarding Castro/Cuba and his consistently poor numbers with older voters. Would be the biggest margin of victory in Florida since '88, Sanders is just a really bad fit. Wouldn't be surprised if it gets triaged early on.

[junior chįmp]

Likely R. Don't see any way that Sanders can win considering his awful comments regarding Castro/Cuba and his consistently poor numbers with older voters. Would be the biggest margin of victory in Florida since '88, Sanders is just a really bad fit. Wouldn't be surprised if it gets triaged early on.

To believe this....one would have to believe that old Atlas trope that the voters are rational robots who immediately respond to consultant driven intellectual campaign points.

I wouldn't be surprised if Sanders loses FL but I doubt it'll come from some nonsense based on the rational all knowing voter theory.

[SN2903]

Likely R/Safe R

Trump 54
Bernie 46

[tmthforu94]

Likely R. Don't see any way that Sanders can win considering his awful comments regarding Castro/Cuba and his consistently poor numbers with older voters. Would be the biggest margin of victory in Florida since '88, Sanders is just a really bad fit. Wouldn't be surprised if it gets triaged early on.

To believe this....one would have to believe that old Atlas trope that the voters are rational robots who immediately respond to consultant driven intellectual campaign points.

I wouldn't be surprised if Sanders loses FL but I doubt it'll come from some nonsense based on the rational all knowing voter theory.

He was openly defending Castro on 60 Minutes tonight, it has been picked up by almost every major news source. You don't think that is going to have an impact on Cuban-American voters? But sure, keep your head in the sand.

As for older voters, the numbers speak for themselves.

[It’s so Joever]

Lean/Likely R.
He won’t lose by 8% (sorry SN) but he will lose too many old people who voted Hillary for his likely gains among minorities and younger voters to work out.

[It’s so Joever]

Safe R.
Too many olds and Cubans who will vote solidly for Trump.

It’s important to distinguish between younger and older Cubans.
Older Cubans will definitely swing against Sanders, but the growing number of young Cuban voters will probably actually shift towards Sanders and turnout more than they did in 2016.

[junior chįmp]

Likely R. Don't see any way that Sanders can win considering his awful comments regarding Castro/Cuba and his consistently poor numbers with older voters. Would be the biggest margin of victory in Florida since '88, Sanders is just a really bad fit. Wouldn't be surprised if it gets triaged early on.

To believe this....one would have to believe that old Atlas trope that the voters are rational robots who immediately respond to consultant driven intellectual campaign points.

I wouldn't be surprised if Sanders loses FL but I doubt it'll come from some nonsense based on the rational all knowing voter theory.

He was openly defending Castro on 60 Minutes tonight, it has been picked up by almost every major news source. You don't think that is going to have an impact on Cuban-American voters? But sure, keep your head in the sand.

As for older voters, the numbers speak for themselves.

Again. This isnt about keeping my head in the sand but to poke fun at the logic behind your reasoning: For your scenario to be true....one would have to assume that all Cuban voters in Florida are actively paying attention to the issues of the election. Now, let's take it one step further: All Cubans are forever thinking about Castro and the Communist regime and those thoughts affect how they vote.

Imagine in 2015 if you asked Evangelical Christians: "would you vote for a philandering billionaire who pays off pornstars he raw dogged?"

Of course....the rational answer is that they wouldn't vote for such a person because of morals and morality. Again....stop thinking that voters are rationally reacting in election outcomes.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Likely R. Don't see any way that Sanders can win considering his awful comments regarding Castro/Cuba and his consistently poor numbers with older voters. Would be the biggest margin of victory in Florida since '88, Sanders is just a really bad fit. Wouldn't be surprised if it gets triaged early on.

To believe this....one would have to believe that old Atlas trope that the voters are rational robots who immediately respond to consultant driven intellectual campaign points.

I wouldn't be surprised if Sanders loses FL but I doubt it'll come from some nonsense based on the rational all knowing voter theory.

He was openly defending Castro on 60 Minutes tonight, it has been picked up by almost every major news source. You don't think that is going to have an impact on Cuban-American voters? But sure, keep your head in the sand.

As for older voters, the numbers speak for themselves.

Again. This isnt about keeping my head in the sand but to poke fun at the logic behind your reasoning: For your scenario to be true....one would have to assume that all Cuban voters in Florida are actively paying attention to the issues of the election. Now, let's take it one step further: All Cubans are forever thinking about Castro and the Communist regime and those thoughts affect how they vote.

Imagine in 2015 if you asked Evangelical Christians: "would you vote for a philandering billionaire who pays off pornstars he raw dogged?"

Of course....the rational answer is that they wouldn't vote for such a person because of morals and morality. Again....stop thinking that voters are rationally reacting in election outcomes.

You are so right. This should be framed

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

It's still a tossup, but Florida is not a state that has the demographics that are kind to Sanders. It's full of older people and Cuban Americans who won't like Sanders' positive comments he made about the Castro regime.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's still a tossup, but Florida is not a state that has the demographics that are kind to Sanders. It's full of older people and Cuban Americans who won't like Sanders' positive comments he made about the Castro regime.

There are more PR voters than Cubans, the state voted twice for Obama
 Sanders is open to PR statehood and minimum wage is on ballot. It's a tossup , 48 tie with Trump