COVID-19 Mega thread

[Dr. Arch]

You're trolling all over the place. I hope you enjoy what's left of your short stay. For now, you will be muted.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I do not want this to be the pandemic, but no matter what I post here, the facts cannot be changed. Any objective dispassionate analysis will show there is no comparison between nCov and SARS. See below:

https://twitter.com/LanceAndrews/status/1220523146178191363

The things that you are posting as allegedly being "facts" are not necessarily facts. They tend to be more speculative. It is possible that they might end up being correct, but you seem to be relying on sources that are not the best (in particular tweets from random people without specific expertise), and it is too early to tell for sure what the actual facts are in many cases.

Example 1 of this -

The tweet above that you posted is just from some random person with no apparent qualifications. The idea that it is "Currently spreading much faster than SARS" is simply this guy's interpretation, but is not necessarily correct. He is assuming a number of things, such as that the #s he has are correct. There have been some epidemiologists who have suggested that possibly the current Coronavirus outbreak may have started earlier than reported. That may or may not be true, of course, but if it is, then this random guy's analysis is wrong.



Example 2 of this -

https://twitter.com/Juronaut/status/1220822800300113923

This is only one out of 4-5 or so different studies trying to estimate R_0. The WHO's earlier estimate was 1.4-2.5. The one you posted is the most pessimistic one. Here is a more complete list of studies that have estimated R_0 (there may be more since this was posted, also note this tweet is actually from an epidemiologist, not from some random dude):

https://twitter.com/C_Althaus/status/1220723566272045057

Various analyses highlighting potential for sustained human-to-human transmission of #nCoV2019. Current 'estimates' of R0:

- @JulRiou & @C_Althaus: 2.2 (90% interval: 1.4-3.8)
- @JonRead et al.: 3.8 (95% interval: 3.6-4.0)
- @maiamajumder & @mandl: 2.0-3.3
- @nextstrain: 1.5-3.5

So 3.8 could be correct (and indeed, if it is that high have very good reason to seriously worry), but it may well be an overestimate.



Also, the tweet you posted about the JonRead study misrepresents its findings. The actual mean estimate (if R_0 is really 3.8) is 190k cases by Feb 4 in Wuhan, not 250k. That is because the distribution is not normal (due to the exponential growth pattern in viruses spreading). The tweet incorrectly just assumes that the mean is the midpoint between the two sides of the confidence interval. Why does it incorrectly assume that? Partly because the guy who wrote the tweet is just some random guy - who does seem to be intelligent, but not something with particular knowledge relating to epidemiology and who apparently didn't really read the paper other than maybe skimming it, and simply assumed that there was a normal distribution without considering whether that assumption was appropriate.

[Yellowhammer]

How long will it take for y’all to blame Trump?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Another suspected case in TN from a student at Tennessee Tech with recent travel history (presumably to Wuhan/China)

https://fox17.com/news/local/tennessee-tech-student-undergoing-testing-for-possible-infection-with-coronavirus

oh sh**t bro everyone press F to pay respects for HillGoose, I work like 3 minutes from campus and I have a ton of friends who haven't graduated yet.

He doesn't have coronavirus.  For what it's worth, most suspected cases in the US and other countries outside of China have wound up not being coronavirus.  Symptoms can easily be confused with a bad cold or the flu.

https://www.wkrn.com/news/local-news/tdh-coronavirus-test-on-ttu-student-came-back-negative/

[HillGoose]

Another suspected case in TN from a student at Tennessee Tech with recent travel history (presumably to Wuhan/China)

https://fox17.com/news/local/tennessee-tech-student-undergoing-testing-for-possible-infection-with-coronavirus

oh sh**t bro everyone press F to pay respects for HillGoose, I work like 3 minutes from campus and I have a ton of friends who haven't graduated yet.

He doesn't have coronavirus.  For what it's worth, most suspected cases in the US and other countries outside of China have wound up not being coronavirus.  Symptoms can easily be confused with a bad cold or the flu.

https://www.wkrn.com/news/local-news/tdh-coronavirus-test-on-ttu-student-came-back-negative/

Ya brah I'm at a rager and the news came thru and cheers erupted, deadass.

[Skill and Chance]

Again, the primary fear about this is that any public information coming out about the virus is simply made up by the Chinese government.  The worst scenario would be that it's the new Black Death and they are carefully covering it up.  The best scenario (for people living outside of China) would be that they know it is no more harmful than the common cold but are using it as an opportunity to crush some preexisting political opposition in that part of the country or just to make the government look heroic.

We just don't know, and the likelihood we are being lied to is very high. 

[Devout Centrist]

You folks ought to listen to Sjoyce. He knows his stuff!

In any case, it appears this outbreak mirrors SARS in quite a few ways, though crucially it may have a lower mortality rate. Incidentally, if you want to see what a very dangerous outbreak looks like, you should take a look at Contagion, a very realistic film about a much deadlier and much more terrifying fictional disease.

[BigSerg]

Again, the primary fear about this is that any public information coming out about the virus is simply made up by the Chinese government.  The worst scenario would be that it's the new Black Death and they are carefully covering it up.  The best scenario (for people living outside of China) would be that they know it is no more harmful than the common cold but are using it as an opportunity to crush some preexisting political opposition in that part of the country or just to make the government look heroic.

We just don't know, and the likelihood we are being lied to is very high. 

X2

[Meclazine for Israel]

Update from the Doc.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qO8QWq1K1_c

Just a new version of the flu in reality. Not dissimilar to SARS.

[Cinemark]

The majority of deaths from the virus so far have been those aged between 60 and 89, according to William Yang, the east Asia correspondent for the German news outlet DW.

According to the figures, no one under 30 has died from the virus yet.

This was on the live Guardian news feed earlier today. So, it seems like the elderly are most at risk right now.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Again, the primary fear about this is that any public information coming out about the virus is simply made up by the Chinese government.  The worst scenario would be that it's the new Black Death and they are carefully covering it up.  The best scenario (for people living outside of China) would be that they know it is no more harmful than the common cold but are using it as an opportunity to crush some preexisting political opposition in that part of the country or just to make the government look heroic.

We just don't know, and the likelihood we are being lied to is very high. 

If I remember correctly, they took a lot of international criticism over the handling SARS, and its at least possible that they're overreacting in the name of safety and their own reputation.

[Beet]

Calm down. You are getting emotional and attacking me personally.

I am personally attacking you because very little of what you have posted in this thread has to do with the scientific facts surrounding novel coronavirus, and everything to do with the baseless catastrophizing that has become your rhetorical signature during your years here on the forum. Normally, I think your neuroses are kind of funny — the bit you did where you became a MAGA chud for like a week was hilarious — but if you are spreading disinformation about a public health crisis I am going to correct the record.

Any objective dispassionate analysis will show there is no comparison between nCov and SARS. See below:

https://twitter.com/NelsonL24507424/status/1220832766566129664
Dr. Lee is the physician who identified and described SARS in 2003. Your source is... a resident of Newfoundland.

In fact there are multiple local reports that 90,000 or 100,000 may already be infected. And believe me, I will take no pleasure in bumping this thread to "prove" you wrong. I suggest you take some time to cool off and re-approach this subject dispassionately.

There is no evidence to support the claim that 100,000 may already be infected — as far as I can tell, the only evidence is a noisy recording of a conference call from medical staff at one hospital. Please stop posting unverified twitter rumors in this thread.

Personal attacks are against the rules. If you have a problem with my arguments, fine, then stick to those. This is not about me. No matter how much you "correct the record" the facts will not change. ALL of your arguments thus far are self-admitted appeals to authority.

There are two pieces of evidence that the number infected was 90,000 to 100,000. One was the medical staff at a local hospital. Another is a recording of a nurse who personally witnessed 1,000 patients being treated at just her own hospital. I did not state these as fact, but they are local, on the ground reports. They are more reliable than whatever underreported WHO statistics you are relying on.

[Beet]

As another example of the utter ridiculousness of trying to compare this with SARS (obviously I am not talking about clinical presentation but epidemiology), the number of cases in the past day has jumped from 1,300 to 2,000 or 700 new confirmed cases in a single day. In contrast, during SARS, at the peak only 80 new cases were confirmed in a day.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC539564/

(Cue some irrelevant pedagogical point by sjoyce trying to make this about how awful I am and ignoring the simple, glaring facts as loud as a hurricane at this point.)

[100% pro-life no matter what]

As another example of the utter ridiculousness of trying to compare this with SARS (obviously I am not talking about clinical presentation but epidemiology), the number of cases in the past day has jumped from 1,300 to 2,000 or 700 new confirmed cases in a single day. In contrast, during SARS, at the peak only 80 new cases were confirmed in a day.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC539564/

(Cue some irrelevant pedagogical point by sjoyce trying to make this about how awful I am and ignoring the simple, glaring facts as loud as a hurricane at this point.)

OK, but let's say that there really have been 100,000 cases.  It's a whole lot easier to have a relatively mild illness go unreported than a death go unreported.  Let's say that the death toll is 100- considerably higher than the WHO says- that makes for a case fatality rate of only 0.1%.  The more cases there are, (paradoxically) the less scared the world should be.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

How long will it take for y’all to blame Trump?

Nah dude. This is just an example of how Mexico China doesn't send its best.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/WHOWPRO/status/1221326573820768262?s=19

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1221369064083185670?s=19

[Skill and Chance]

This is not about me. No matter how much you "correct the record" the facts will not change. ALL of your arguments thus far are self-admitted appeals to authority.

There are two pieces of evidence that the number infected was 90,000 to 100,000. One was the medical staff at a local hospital. Another is a recording of a nurse who personally witnessed 1,000 patients being treated at just her own hospital.

Second paragraph undermines first paragraph — the problem here is not any objective fact about the virus, it is that you believe any unverified Telegram rumor and immediately post it to this forum with a note about how hundreds of millions of people will die.

As another example of the utter ridiculousness of trying to compare this with SARS (obviously I am not talking about clinical presentation but epidemiology), the number of cases in the past day has jumped from 1,300 to 2,000 or 700 new confirmed cases in a single day. In contrast, during SARS, at the peak only 80 new cases were confirmed in a day.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC539564/

(Cue some irrelevant pedagogical point by sjoyce trying to make this about how awful I am and ignoring the simple, glaring facts as loud as a hurricane at this point.)

Here is a fun and relevant point — it is so similar to SARS that the team that developed the SARS vaccine has found that their vaccine will actually bind to the same receptors on the new virus. Vaccine is going into clinical trials soon, which means the end of the world will, unfortunately, have to be delayed for a few months.

https://twitter.com/PeterHotez/status/1221440274926227457

Anything that would allow a scientific shortcut to a vaccine is a game changer in the right way. 

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Some of us have grandparents who survived both World Wars.

He we are complaining about surviving Swine Flu and Coronavirus. Perspective, please.

The mass hysteria is once again why the MSM can’t be trusted.

[Crumpets]

Some of us have grandparents who survived both World Wars.

He we are complaining about surviving Swine Flu and Coronavirus. Perspective, please.

The mass hysteria is once again why the MSM can’t be trusted.

Is anyone comparing the current outbreak to WWII? As long as people are dying and we don't have a good way to control it, it's worthy of concern, even if other people have died worse deaths or on a larger scale before.

[Beet]

Very bad news today... perhaps the worst since this thing has started. However, explains why the virus has transmitted so quickly. The Chinese MoH has confirmed it spreads before any symptoms appear, during the incubation period. This is unlike SARS which could be screened for by screening fever, which was the tactic that controlled that outbreak.

Critically, that means a person apparently healthy can be walking around for 2 weeks, spreading it, touching public door handles, surfaces on escalators, elevators, etc. infecting them with no evidence whatsoever. It also means the only method of infection control left is either to physically isolate people for 14 days and ensure no symptoms during the period, or develop a reliable mobile test for the virus, which is a long ways away considering that samples currently have to be sent to labs (sometimes internationally)  and take days to come back.

[Person Man]

Some of us have grandparents who survived both World Wars.

He we are complaining about surviving Swine Flu and Coronavirus. Perspective, please.

The mass hysteria is once again why the MSM can’t be trusted.

I agree but I probably blame a different set of people than you do. For example, I had just turned 16 when 9/11 happened. The traditional cable news went back to normal programming about two weeks after 9/11 but Fox News would still be primarily be on it until we actually went in.

[Skill and Chance]

If the no symptoms+contagious for 2 weeks thing is real and it's also capable of spreading through industrial cities with indoor plumbing and electricity in most homes, we have a big problem. 

The good news is the potential that it's biologically similar to something we already have a vaccine for. 

[Cinemark]

If the no symptoms+contagious for 2 weeks thing is real and it's also capable of spreading through industrial cities with indoor plumbing and electricity in most homes, we have a big problem. 

The good news is the potential that it's biologically similar to something we already have a vaccine for. 

Yeah, seems like they're having luck with Aids medication.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Five cases of Wuhan coronavirus have been confirmed in the United States, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said on Sunday.

One new case was confirmed in Arizona and two cases were confirmed in California. Cases had previously been confirmed in Illinois and Washington state. All the cases were in people who had recently traveled to Wuhan, China.

https://www.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-hnk-intl-01-26-20/index.html