MN-Gov: Pawlenty leads Hatch by 3

[AuH2O]

Pawlenty is the man. Hatch will have to run a tremendous campaign to have a shot at winning.

[AuH2O]

Pawlenty is the man. Hatch will have to run a tremendous campaign to have a shot at winning.

Has there ever been a race where you've predicted a more pro-Democratic result than most people expected?

Of course. If someone wants to dig up the House predictions thread from 2004-- if it exists still-- I predicted some Democrats to win that actually lost (and a couple 'questionable' predictions I made were in fact correct, such as Sodrel beating Hill). Also in 2004 I initially predicted Murkowski would lose, though by October I no longer thought that to be the case. Before Swann got hot, I predicted Rendell would easily win in '06 (that probably was not a good guess even then, because Scranton might be able to get close were he the nominee).

Claims that I never think a Democrat will win are factually in error. I am much less biased than most posters in my predictions, probably because I like to bet on things... and in doing so you learn that bias = losses.

[AuH2O]

Lol, you thought Bush was gonna win Washington. You have a definite bias against Democrats.

As Lewis notes above, I did not claim zero bias. There is a certain amount of structural bias (psychologically speaking) that is unavoidable, except perhaps via an exercise of the utmost rigor (which is not really justified for the purposes of posting on a message board).

However, you are factually wrong in claiming I predicted Bush would win Washington state. I never, at any time, believed or posted that Bush had a 50% or greater chance at winning there.

I did (correctly) determine that Bush was undervalued in the Spring of 2004 in certain states. At the time I believed Kerry was likely to wind up with 45-47%; at the lower end of that range, Washington would be in play.

Bush of course blew the first debate which, coupled with some bad luck events-wise, got Kerry up to 48% and change, putting away easily all Democratic states.

[AuH2O]

Then why I am so rarely wrong?

[AuH2O]

Then why I am so rarely wrong?

Is this your prediction map for 2004?



Or was there another AUH2O?

lol is that a joke?

I don't ever post prediction maps, by the way. I'm not sure I even can, isn't there something additional you have to do for it to work?