Texas Lyceum poll: Biden 28, Sanders 26, Warren 13, Bloomberg 9, Buttigieg 6

[krb08]

https://www.texaslyceum.org/assets/docs/Poll/2020/2020%20Lyceum%20Day%201%20Executive%20Summary.pdf

[redjohn]

Disastrous for Joe. Not sure how good the pollster is but Biden+2 in Texas would be towards the end of the road for his campaign. If Bernie wins TX he's the nominee.

[Cinemark]

Yeah, Hillary won the Texas primary by 32 points. Joe's gotta to do much better than this if he wants a southern firewall.

[krb08]

FiveThirtyEight's model has had Sanders only about five points behind Biden recently. I've always thought Sanders could make a play for TX, considering he's leading with Hispanic voters this time around and was losing them badly in 2016

[DrScholl]

Biden is definitely winning Texas by more than 2%, but the Bernie stans will eating this up like cheetos.

[Adam Griffin]

Not a good pollster, but their margin isn't inherently unfathomable in terms of the national margins and racial preferences we've seen thus far. Black and latino voters in TX will cancel each other out: TX will come down to white voters' preferences. Biden will not have latino voters overwhelmingly on his side like Hillary did 4 years ago.

[RI]

New Poll: Texas President by Texas Lyceum on 2020-01-19

Summary:

Biden:	28%
Sanders:	26%
Warren:	13%
Bloomberg:	9%
Buttigieg:	6%
Other:	8%
Undecided:	10%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[bilaps]

Their last poll was back in August and stil had Beto in it and he got 18% but since then Biden has moved 4% up and Bernie is 13% up while Warren is at the same.

[Xing]

Probably too favorable for Sanders, but if he can keep Texas at all close (which is plausible if he wins Latino voters), he has a real chance of coming out of Super Tuesday ahead in delegates.

[Modernity has failed us]

If Bernie manages to keep it within 10 in Texas, Biden is toast.

Get it, like Texas Toast?

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

But someone said that Texas is part of "the south" and therefore Biden would win it in a landslide and Bernie would get no delegates there, and consequently Biden would be the nominee.

[DrScholl]

If Bernie manages to keep it within 10 in Texas, Biden is toast.

Get it, like Texas Toast?

No, it was a lame joke.

[GeneralMacArthur]

There's no age breakdown, but of the 1200 respondents 600 were cell phones and 200 were online, leaving only 400 landlines.  I wonder whether they're still using the same model as the 2018 election when Beto sparked a dramatic rise in 18-29 turnout that's unlikely to repeat.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden is gonna win here

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

There's no age breakdown, but of the 1200 respondents 600 were cell phones and 200 were online, leaving only 400 landlines.  I wonder whether they're still using the same model as the 2018 election when Beto sparked a dramatic rise in 18-29 turnout that's unlikely to repeat.

It is a Presidential election as compared to a midterm. Young voter turnout is likely to be higher, not lower. If it were lower (in particular if there is a nominee who motivates turnout, perhaps somewhat less so with an uninspiring nominee), that would be totally unprecedented and no informed observer expects that.

[Dr. Arch]

Remember that Bernie does extremely well with Hispanic voters, and especially new/young Hispanic voters... and it is Texas.

[UWS]

Disastrous for Joe. Not sure how good the pollster is but Biden+2 in Texas would be towards the end of the road for his campaign. If Bernie wins TX he's the nominee.

I think it may require Buttigieg dropping out of the race before Super Tuesday (especially if he arrives 4th or 5th place in Iowa and 3rd or 4th in New Hampshire) as Biden and Buttigieg are fighting for the same moderate base.

[Holmes]

This kind of result would almost be fatal for Biden.

[Modernity has failed us]

If Bernie manages to keep it within 10 in Texas, Biden is toast.

Get it, like Texas Toast?

No, it was a lame joke.

My whole day is ruined.

[ElectionsGuy]

Lyceum has produced some real sh**tty polls in the past, so I have my doubts here. But if Sanders is in statistical tie with Biden here he would probably be favored to win the nom after ST.

[Roblox]

This poll is almost certainly too favorable for Sanders, but I do think he will likely improve substantially in Texas over 2016, considering how well he's doing with hispanics.

[Skill and Chance]

Lyceum has produced some real sh**tty polls in the past, so I have my doubts here. But if Sanders is in statistical tie with Biden here he would probably be favored to win the nom after ST.

Yes, it probably isn't this close, but Sanders doesn't even need it to be this close.  If he just keeps Texas within single digits, he's favored from that point on.

[OneJ]

It should also be noted that Texas is quite urban. According to the last Fox poll if I am not mistakened, it showed that Bernie does best among voters who live in urban areas so I don't think it's out of the question we see him doing well here especially in the urban centers.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Bernie sure as hell aint get my vote in the primary when I early vote in 20 days, go Biden!

[Adam Griffin]

Bernie sure as hell aint get my vote in the primary when I early vote in 20 days, go Biden!

I never would have guessed!