How did Bob Dole lose so badly in 1996?

[AGA]

?

[Harvey Updyke Jr🌹]

He ran against a popular incumbent during a great economy and had to fall on the sword.

[One Term Floridian]

Honestly the better question might be how Bob Dole didn’t lose harder and still kept Clinton under 400 electoral votes. He was DOA in 1996 and clearly overperformed on Election Day.

[AGA]

He ran against a popular incumbent during a great economy and had to fall on the sword.

I know, but by almost 9 points?

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

He ran against a popular incumbent during a great economy and had to fall on the sword.

I know, but by almost 9 points?

Actually, Dole experienced a late surge, which allowed him to (barely) get over 40%. Before that he was poised to finish within 30s.

Also, Perot was still a wildcard, which also probably kept Clinton (barely) under 50%.

Still, Clinton's margin of victory remains the largest to this day.

[darklordoftech]

Looking at the maps, Dole’s loss doesn’t look any worse than HW Bush’s.

[mgop]

why wouldn't he? it was the lowest turnout ever. you have two same candidate and there's no surprise that simpsons made that famous kang-kodos episode for that election.

[Crumpets]

People forget that Bill Clinton was actually a very popular president.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Honestly the better question might be how Bob Dole didn’t lose harder and still kept Clinton under 400 electoral votes. He was DOA in 1996 and clearly overperformed on Election Day.

Clinton was up 15-20 points in 1996 and badly under performed polling for some reason.

[One Term Floridian]

Honestly the better question might be how Bob Dole didn’t lose harder and still kept Clinton under 400 electoral votes. He was DOA in 1996 and clearly overperformed on Election Day.

Clinton was up 15-20 points in 1996 and badly under performed polling for some reason.

Low turnout election, so I guess a lot of his voters didn’t bother to show up to the polls. Clinton did express his disappointment in losing several red states like SD, MT, CO, VA, MS, TX & GA by very close margins in his autobiography, preventing him from relishing in a huge mandate.

[darklordoftech]

Honestly the better question might be how Bob Dole didn’t lose harder and still kept Clinton under 400 electoral votes. He was DOA in 1996 and clearly overperformed on Election Day.

How did we go from that to the red state/blue state divide in four years?

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Looking at the maps, Dole’s loss doesn’t look any worse than HW Bush’s.

Pretty much yes, there were some flips and that's all, but many stricking similarities.


GHWB's percentage: 37,4%
Dole's percentage: 40.7% (gained 3.3%)

GHWB margin of defeat: 5.6%
Dole's margin of defeat: 8.5% (lost 2.9%)

Number of votes casted for GHWB: 39,104,550
Number of votes casted for Dole: 39,197,469


Yes, we see pretty little difference here. Pretty amazing

[Adam Griffin]

Perot took from Clinton in '92, but he took from Dole in '96. Third-party voters who said they'd vote for Perot likely shifted toward Dole in the end, which narrowed what would otherwise have been a 72/84 redux. Still, it led to a walloping in absolute terms.

[Bojack Horseman]

Honestly the better question might be how Bob Dole didn’t lose harder and still kept Clinton under 400 electoral votes. He was DOA in 1996 and clearly overperformed on Election Day.

If Clinton had held Colorado and Georgia he would have had exactly 400. I’ve always wondered why Colorado flipped to Dole. Georgia I get being a southern state.

[UWS]

Partly because of Ross Perot who divided the conservative base. I think that if Perot stepped aside, Dole may have flipped Nevada, Kentucky, Tennessee and would have kept Arizona.

But also the economy was flourishing and so it benefited Bill Clinton.

[sg0508]

1) Good economy
2) Dole's 25% tax reduction wasn't taken seriously
3) Dole was old and out of touch
4) The GOP and Newt got a lot of blame for the '95 shutdown and Clinton got much more credit for the economy
5) Things were quiet abroad.

There wasn't much to talk about in '96. The only surprise as stated, is that Clinton didn't win bigger.

[MIKESOWELL]

 Dole lost pretty badly but he actually greatly over performed on Election Day. Clinton was expected to win by at least double digits in the popular vote, some polls had him up 15-20 points. I think the presumed inevitability of a Clinton win rocked some voters to sleep by Election Day and it undercut Clinton's margins and may have prevented him from carrying certain states like Georgia and Colorado.

[TML]

Another thing: Dole was considered the "my turn" candidate for 1996 (similar to McCain in 2008, Romney in 2012, and Hillary in 2016). Such candidates have had a rather poor track record in modern political history.

[538Electoral]

Clinton was popular.

[darklordoftech]

Another thing: Dole was considered the "my turn" candidate for 1996 (similar to McCain in 2008, Romney in 2012, and Hillary in 2016). Such candidates have had a rather poor track record in modern political history.

[Flyersfan232]

Clinton was popular.

And perot

[MT Treasurer]

I’ve always attributed Clinton's "underperformance" to four factors in particular:

1. Clinton's (relative) personal unpopularity (not approval rating, but character) -- people really underestimate how much this hurt Democrats in the Clinton years, including 2000.
2. The strength of the Religious/Christian Right + social conservatism (abortion was already a hot-button issue in 1996, as was the sense that the country had lost its moral compass, especially under Clinton)
3. Increasing political polarization in general
4. Perot voters "coming home" to Dole

This is an unpopular take, but I maintain that 1996 could have looked more like 2012 with a stronger Republican opponent (Dole ran one of the worst campaigns in recent history) and Perot getting less support. People are exaggerating how "unbeatable" Clinton was.

[AN63093]

Honestly the better question might be how Bob Dole didn’t lose harder and still kept Clinton under 400 electoral votes. He was DOA in 1996 and clearly overperformed on Election Day.

How did we go from that to the red state/blue state divide in four years?

We didn't.  The current alignment/levels of polarization started developing decades ago, back in the 1960s.  It's just that 2000 was the year that a lot of the last holdouts flipped and the current map came into sharper focus.

[darklordoftech]

In spite of all this, Dole got 12% of the black vote while HW got 11% in 1988 and 10% in 1992 and W got 9% in 2000 and 11% in 2004.

[Suburbia]

In spite of all this, Dole got 12% of the black vote while HW got 11% in 1988 and 10% in 1992 and W got 9% in 2000 and 11% in 2004.

Because of Jack Kemp, but it was not enough to win.