VA: Election Closer Than Expected

[Frodo]

Several points I'd like to make....

First: the best we can hope for in this race is to make Republicans spend money in a state they thought they could take for granted, and divert resources from other races where the Democrat stands a better chance of taking a seat

Second: if James Webb can make this race close enough that the NRSC is forced to divert resources to it, it could cast a shadow over Allen's hopes of winning his party's nomination in '08. 

Third: if Webb makes a good performance in this state given its Republican lean, he has a long political career ahead of him.....

[Frodo]

If "closer than expected" is Allen +12, that doesn't sound too hopeful.

Well do keep in mind that Allen is being polled with just under 50% approval rating -normally, that is a dangerous sign and would make him potentially vulnerable especially against a Democrat with crossover appeal like Jim Webb.

Ultimately though, I do not expect the results in Virginia between George Allen and Jim Webb to be much different from the results between Maria Cantwell and Mike McGavick in Washington state given they are diametrically similar situations -and both Allen and Cantwell will win re-election by similar margins.   

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We know that already....   

[Frodo]

I would add also that if Allen does worse than expected in his bid for re-election, Republicans should therefore consider themselves fortunate that he likely won't be running for their party's presidential nomination, which would give them an even better chance of keeping the White House in Republican hands for another decade than they already had.