Rasmussen. FL Sen: Nelson (D) 49%, Harris (R) 40%

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Strange poll… Harris will have zero cash while Nelson has deep fundraising pockets, the idea that Nelson will only garner 77% of the States’ democrats against Harris is pretty laughable IMHO he’ll break 85% with ease IMHO and beat her soundly amongst independents while Harris will dominate amongst GOP voters… but as I’ve said in the past, unlike much of the south you need more than the GOP base to win in Florida and that’s why Harris will lose and probably by a clear margin.         

If voter turnout in N. Florida is heavy they will outvote the southern part of the state pretty handily. And you must remember that Kerry didn't carry Miami by very much as compared to past Democratic candidates. FL is most definately trending GOP.

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I suppose if it's any consolation, she's polling closer to her Democrat opponent than Santorum is to his.

I think she actually has a decent chance of winning. She has a lot of backing by the farmers being that her father was a BIG time agriculture man. If she gets the farmers and religious folks behind her then her chances will increase greatly.

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She will not be able to win if she cant get the Independent vote.  Otherwise, this poll is great news for Harris when comparing her poll numbers from this month to last month.

Many of the "independents" around here are very conservative minded. I don't know how they are wherever you live at in FL. Plus the great majority of registered Democrats here vote Republican.

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She will not be able to win if she cant get the Independent vote.  Otherwise, this poll is great news for Harris when comparing her poll numbers from this month to last month.

Many of the "independents" around here are very conservative minded. I don't know how they are wherever you live at in FL. Plus the great majority of registered Democrats here vote Republican.

I live in Palm Beach County where the majority of people are liberal.  The Independents are that way also.

Ah! You live in New Cuba then.

Will the last American out please take the flag?

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...you would have to include the Tampa Bay area in N Florida. Which doesn't really make any sense.

Isn’t the Tampa area Nelson’s old congressional district and pretty much his political base in the state? While the area has trended GOP Nelson still has a sizable personal vote there and I’d put the chances of a good performance there by Harris as pretty close to zero… baring the scenario I outlined above where GOP turnout massively outweighs that of Democrats and Independents.         

Tampa proper is likely to go Dem of course but probably not by much. Out here in the eastern part of the county she would likely win by 50-52%. Also, Harris' home district is in the next county down from me so Nelson and Harris are basically neighbors. Pinellas county is unpredictable though it recently has had the tendency to elect Republicans. They have a popular mayor (Rick Baker) and the county swung towards Bush in 2004.

I'm not sure how the money issue will affect Harris. Harris herself is rather wealthy due to a large inheritance from her father who was a big time farmer. I don't know how that affects her race if any.

I personally think that Jeb Bush should have run for senate but that's just me. I'm sure if he had run he could have beat Nelson by 10-12% considering Jebs overall popularity. Taxes in the state have been kept rather low and overall the economy is cranking better then the rest of the country and unemployment is lower then the national number. Maybe Jeb is saving himself for a presidential run? I don't know but I think that's likely.

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I personally think that Jeb Bush should have run for senate but that's just me. I'm sure if he had run he could have beat Nelson by 10-12% considering Jebs overall popularity. Taxes in the state have been kept rather low and overall the economy is cranking better then the rest of the country and unemployment is lower then the national number. Maybe Jeb is saving himself for a presidential run? I don't know but I think that's likely.

I am aware that Jeb Bush has refused to run for president, but I do not recall him ruling out running for any other office -though perhaps you have a better memory than I do.  And assuming he has ruled out running for any future office, he still has until May 12 (the federal filing deadline) to change his mind.  The fact that Katherine Harris is floundering must be making some impression on him..... 

It would be in his best interest not to run for Senate if he wants a shot at the presidency. Senators have a very very bad record of presidential runs. I doubt he'll challenge Harris, his support for her is pretty well known.

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Bump. This is for the hacks like Deano and those in that other thread who are quoting a thread wayy back in Febuary. Lets' read the WHOLE thread and then discuss how things have changed. KTHXBYE

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Bump. This is so everyone knows just how stupid hacks like StatesRights are.

Plus the great majority of registered Democrats here vote Republican.

LOL - The 'great majority'of registered democrats in FL vote republican huh? That definitely explains why Bush's margin of victory in the state was less than 600 votes in 2000.

Wrong again fool. Go look at the registration stats for the state of Florida.

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It would be in his [Jeb Bush's] best interest not to run for Senate if he wants a shot at the presidency. Senators have a very very bad record of presidential runs. I doubt he'll challenge Harris, his support for her is pretty well known.

I thought Jeb 'threw Harris under the bus' as you put it? If his support for her is so great and he was not running for the seat, why would he say that she can't win?

Because he said this in June of this year..if you can read you can clearly see that I said this back in FEBRUARY!!! The name of the game is awareness.

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It would be in his [Jeb Bush's] best interest not to run for Senate if he wants a shot at the presidency. Senators have a very very bad record of presidential runs. I doubt he'll challenge Harris, his support for her is pretty well known.

I thought Jeb 'threw Harris under the bus' as you put it? If his support for her is so great and he was not running for the seat, why would he say that she can't win?

Because he said this in June of this year..if you can read you can clearly see that I said this back in FEBRUARY!!! The name of the game is awareness.

And that matters why? You still haven't explained how him not saying that would have helped. She was hopelessly down long bfore he said that.

If he had thrown his full support behind her it's quite obvious she would be a lot closer then she is at this current point. Seriously now, how can you deny that fact?

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If he had thrown his full support behind her it's quite obvious she would be a lot closer then she is at this current point. Seriously now, how can you deny that fact?

Why is it obivous? It's not a fact b/c you say it is.

You don't think a governor with a 59% approval rating would have any effect on Harris' chances? You can't possibly be that hackish.

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A semi-popular Governor like Jeb

LOL

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A semi-popular Governor like Jeb

LOL

https://www.surveyusa.com/50State2006/50StateGovernor060921Net.htm

LOL- what are you laughing about ? HAHAHA. Jeb Bush ties for 20th in the approval ratings for Governors. His +20% net approval hardly makes him an extremely popular gov like the way you talk about him.

But there I go again tring to convince you with solid facts and numbers when while all you do is throw out your opinion like fact and NEVER back up one single thing you say.

 You can't possibly be that stupid.

Wow, you really are that stupid.

When are you going to win a debate? I'm glad I won this round, see you again next time, pussy.

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You can't possibly be that stupid.

Wow, you really are that stupid.

Nice language. That really makes you sound intelligent.

I concur.