2/2006 50 Governors SUSA
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 01:41:20 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  2/2006 50 Governors SUSA
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: 2/2006 50 Governors SUSA  (Read 5042 times)
ian
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,461


Political Matrix
E: -0.52, S: -1.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: February 15, 2006, 01:18:24 AM »

http://www.surveyusa.com/50State2006/50StateGovernor060214Net.htm

Rell on top again.
Taft on bottom again.
Logged
nini2287
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,616


Political Matrix
E: 2.77, S: -3.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: February 15, 2006, 01:22:30 AM »

Ouch Taft's at 14%.  It's nice to see Romney continue to slide and Ehrlich surge.
Logged
○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,611


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: February 15, 2006, 01:23:54 AM »

Taft has the awesome 14% approval, 82% disapproval rating.

Arnold's attempts to fool people into thinking he's a moderate aren't working, he's 32-65, tying for his worst yet.

Bottom 6 are 5 Republicans, and the RNC's scapegoat for Katrina.

Manchin was top last time, not that anything happened to him, Rell just got better ratings.
Logged
Gabu
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,388
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -4.32, S: -6.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: February 15, 2006, 01:31:03 AM »

Wow, Bob Taft actually went under 17%.

I wonder what the heck convinced those new people that Bob Taft sucks. Tongue

On more serious notes...

I see that Gregoire's approval is finally even with her disapproval.  It's about time.

Either Mississippi is a "1 in 20" error or the Katrina effect has wore off in a huge way.

Kathleen Blanco's approval rating is lower than it's ever been before.  I think it's safe to call Louisiana as a GOP pickup if she runs again.

Brad Henry is kicking some serious ass up there.  Any idea why he's improved his approval rating so dramatically over the last two polls that were taken?

Phil Bredesen is in the most bizarre situation that I have ever seen in my entire political experience: both Democrats and Republicans approve of him by comfortable margins, but Independents disapprove of him by an 11% margin.

I think that's all I can think of to comment on. Smiley
Logged
AuH2O
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,239


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: February 15, 2006, 02:10:33 AM »
« Edited: February 15, 2006, 02:12:46 AM by AuH2O »

DISCLAIMER... these are not huge samples, which means the internals are pretty small subsamples. But some observations...

Ehrlich.... SO hot right now. If those internals even resemble reality, he can't lose, barring mishap. My favorite internal, well excluding the questionable 46% approval rating from blacks, is the age crosstab.

Pawlenty looks pretty good. They love Lingle in Hawaii.

In the top 25 net approval ratings, only 6 are from states Kerry won. In the bottom 25, 13 are. Of course a number of states Bush won have Democrat Governors, but I thought it was interesting.

For some reason the Maine breakdown was interesting.

One thing I like to do is just ignore the approval numbers and look at the composition tab. For instance, the Connecticut results for 'ideology': 23% conservative, 21% liberal, 52% moderate. Here are some others, in that order--

Mass.: 20/24/51.
NJ: 25/18/54
Cali: 24/24/48
RI: 25/20/52
WV: 38/14/44
Idaho: 39/14/44
Wisc: 33/14/39
Ala: 47/8/40
NY: 27/19/49

I mean, pretty interesting. There's obviously a lot of noise in those numbers but it seems clear people are more reluctant to call themselves 'liberal' than 'conservative.' 19% of New York is liberal? I've dealt with good post-2004 election data that had more categories, i.e. liberal, moderate liberal, centrist, moderate conservative, conservative. That helped even it out a bit.

The only explanation I can see is that some Democrats consider themselves to be more moderate than they really are, relative to the electorate as a whole. If given the chance, they'll describe themselves as a 'moderate liberal,' but when only given the 3 choices, they go 'moderate.'

Moderate conservatives seem more inclined to answer 'conservative' when given only 3 options.
Logged
Alcon
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,867
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: February 15, 2006, 02:30:30 AM »

Doing a quick go-through for questions:

- Why has Schweitzer fallen?  Sample fuzz?
- How many babies has Jeb Bush been kissing?
- Jon Corzine is semi-popular-ish?
- Why did Tim Kaine start out so well?

Isn't Joe Manchin only the second sitting Governor to hit 80%, other than Jodi Rell?
Logged
Gabu
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,388
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -4.32, S: -6.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: February 15, 2006, 02:33:17 AM »

- Why has Schweitzer fallen?  Sample fuzz?

If you look at the tracking, it's been going 65-68-65-68, and now 64.  I don't think any of this is particularly significant; they all look pretty well statistically equal.
Logged
Alcon
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,867
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: February 15, 2006, 02:35:27 AM »

- Why has Schweitzer fallen?  Sample fuzz?

If you look at the tracking, it's been going 65-68-65-68, and now 64.  I don't think any of this is particularly significant; they all look pretty well statistically equal.

There's far too many Governors close to eachother up there in the approvals.  We need a line of approval, so Bob Taft's patheticness can be truly appreciated.
Logged
Gabu
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,388
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -4.32, S: -6.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: February 15, 2006, 02:37:00 AM »

In the top 25 net approval ratings, only 6 are from states Kerry won. In the bottom 25, 13 are. Of course a number of states Bush won have Democrat Governors, but I thought it was interesting.

Also interesting to note is that the Democrats are generally either towards the top or towards the bottom, with the Republicans more evenly spaced out and towards the middle (although it's also interesting to note that, in spite of this, five of the bottom six governors are all Republican).

- Why has Schweitzer fallen?  Sample fuzz?

If you look at the tracking, it's been going 65-68-65-68, and now 64.  I don't think any of this is particularly significant; they all look pretty well statistically equal.

There's far too many Governors close to eachother up there in the approvals.  We need a line of approval, so Bob Taft's patheticness can be truly appreciated.

Someone should actually plot each governor's approval and disapproval on the same chart.  I think that could be quite interesting, actually.
Logged
○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,611


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: February 15, 2006, 03:45:46 AM »

Haha, Arnold sucks across the board.

He's got 35% approval rating amoung pro-life people, people in Central Valley, and people in the Inland Empire. What a loser.
Logged
○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,611


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: February 15, 2006, 03:51:07 AM »

Pataki's ratings are getting bizzarre.

Whites and Blacks disapprove, Hispanics are tied, and Other approve.

Conservatives and Liberals approve, and Moderates disapprove.

NYC and NYC suburbs approve, while Upstate NY strongly disapproves.
Logged
Ebowed
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,597


Political Matrix
E: 4.13, S: 2.09

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: February 15, 2006, 04:29:48 AM »

- Why has Schweitzer fallen?  Sample fuzz?

If you look at the tracking, it's been going 65-68-65-68, and now 64.  I don't think any of this is particularly significant; they all look pretty well statistically equal.

There's far too many Governors close to eachother up there in the approvals.  We need a line of approval, so Bob Taft's patheticness can be truly appreciated.

Congrats on 10,000th post.
Logged
socaldem
skolodji
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,040


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: February 15, 2006, 05:51:26 AM »

I think its interesting that there is a very strong relationship between approval ratings and the size of a given state. 

I plotted the data from last month into an excel graph with net approval (X)plotted against the number of congressional districts (y) and the trend line was a -(squareroot(x)) graph y=-15x + 11. 

So, the typical state with 1 congressional district should expect a Governor with an approval rating exceeding 60% whereas the typical state with 11 representatives should have a 0% net approval rating and a state exceeding that number should have a somewhat negative approval rating.

This, imo, goes a long way to explaining why a state like California tends never to be happy with its gubernatorial representation.
Logged
MasterJedi
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 23,551
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: February 15, 2006, 07:23:48 AM »

And Doyle has fallen into the disapprove region again after his short stay above.
Logged
MissCatholic
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,424


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: February 15, 2006, 09:59:25 AM »

Do governors necessarily need a 50% approval rating to get re-elected?  coz there are alot of governors no way near it.
Logged
MasterJedi
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 23,551
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: February 15, 2006, 11:30:54 AM »

Do governors necessarily need a 50% approval rating to get re-elected?  coz there are alot of governors no way near it.

It would also depend on who their challanger is. Some people disapprove of their Governor but would vote for them though they don't like it because the opponant is worse.
Logged
Virginian87
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,598
Political Matrix
E: -3.55, S: 2.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: February 15, 2006, 12:27:32 PM »

Ouch Taft's at 14%.  It's nice to see Romney continue to slide and Ehrlich surge.

I see you're adapting to your avatar by pulling for Robert "Slot Machines or Bust" Ehrlich.
Logged
True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
Moderators
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 42,157
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: February 15, 2006, 01:04:15 PM »

I don't know why some people continue to think Sanford is a shoe-in for re-election as Governor.  We continue to have a slugguish economy here compared to the rest of the nation, and then there's the political wildcard of the effort to "reform" property tax.

We're going to see at least one constitutional amendment on the ballot concerning the issue and it's going to be interesting to see what happens with it.  The current proposal involves shifting our tax structure so as to demphasize property tax and replace the revenues by increasing the sales tax.  Not only that, but they're planning on mucking around with the assessment procedure. When a tax measure attracts criticism form the Chamber of Commerce, it hard to see it generating much Republican enthusiasm and the Dems should be solidly aginst any effort to switch property tax to the sales tax.  Meanwhile, we're not bothering to increase our cigarette tax even tho we could triple it and still have the lowest cigarette tax in the nation.  Basically, we've got the GOP pandering to a vocal part of its base on taxes here, which will help Sanford and some Representatives win their primary fights, but I don't think this will be a winning issue in the general election.  We're not an overtaxed state, and indeed an argument can be made that we're undertaxed, since there are Federal grants we don't apply for since we don't have the matching funds that would be required to get them.
Logged
bgwah
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,833
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.03, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: February 15, 2006, 02:28:35 PM »

It certainly makes an interesting map



Gregoire just might win re-election in 2008!

Not that it matters with Dean Logan around!! (just saving CARL HAYDEN the trouble of saying the same old thing)
Logged
Moooooo
nickshepDEM
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,909


Political Matrix
E: -0.52, S: 3.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: February 15, 2006, 02:49:30 PM »

Ehrlich's numbers are suprising, but your kidding yourself if you think he will break 15% among African Americans come Novemeber.
Logged
Q
QQQQQQ
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,319


Political Matrix
E: 2.26, S: -4.88

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: February 15, 2006, 03:01:27 PM »

This is funny.  I just got an e-mail from Rell's campaign with a link to this exact poll. Cheesy

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
Logged
Kevinstat
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,823


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: February 15, 2006, 03:48:59 PM »

For some reason the Maine breakdown was interesting.

Yeah some of the Maine breakdowns have been all over the map relative to each other.  Occasional churchgoers were the least impressed with Baldacci of the three groups of church attendance back in December but are his most supportive now, with only a 1% negative net approval which is good for Baldacci.  Regular church attenders, who became Baldacci's biggest supporters in December after the heated gay rights referendum campaign ended and actually gave Baldacci a 5% net approval rating in January, have turned on him now, with only 37% approving of his performance and 59% disapproving.

As for the breakdowns by race, which must be adjusted somehow because 0 out of 2 African Americans approving of Baldacci's performance in January does not equal 15%, Baldacci has typically receive poor marks from African Americans.  Maine has a very small Black community, however, and that community might be freer to go its own way politically than in places where Blacks are a more sizable minority or even a majority as they are in some arguable regions of some states, like Mississippi's "Delta" and Alabama's "Black Belt".

I have to get going now, but I might talk more about this later.
Logged
7,052,770
Harry
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 35,218
Ukraine


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: February 16, 2006, 01:55:10 AM »

pleasantly surprised by Barbour's ratings.
Logged
Gabu
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,388
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -4.32, S: -6.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: February 16, 2006, 02:05:19 AM »

It certainly makes an interesting map



Gregoire just might win re-election in 2008!

Not that it matters with Dean Logan around!! (just saving CARL HAYDEN the trouble of saying the same old thing)

Shouldn't Mississippi be red?  Barbour got less than 50% approval.
Logged
TomC
TCash101
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,973


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: February 16, 2006, 02:07:19 AM »

It certainly makes an interesting map



Gregoire just might win re-election in 2008!

Not that it matters with Dean Logan around!! (just saving CARL HAYDEN the trouble of saying the same old thing)

Shouldn't Mississippi be red?  Barbour got less than 50% approval.

Barbour's a Republican, and it's light blue for under 50%
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.064 seconds with 12 queries.