OH-Gov: Strickland continues to lead

[nini2287]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/February%202006/Ohio%20Governor%20February.htm

Stickland 47
Blackwell 35

Strickland 44
Petro 37

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That's one hell of a massive lead. I always thought Strickland had the edge, but right now I'm almost saying this is locked up. Although in all fairness it shouldn't really be that much of a shocker considering what people in Ohio think of Bush and Taft now that they wouldn't want continued Republican rule.

[TheresNoMoney]

The Rasmussen polls have been very strange lately.

I do not doubt that Strickland is leading (he led by 4 in January), but a +8 swing in a month is highly suspect.

[Democratic Hawk]

[Galactic Overlord]

I don't know that Petro should be polling closer to Strickland than Blackwell.  His primary campaign has not been going well at all, and he may be in some legal trouble.

I also doubt that Strickland is leading by 8, if he's leading at all.

[Gabu]

While Strickland could be leading, this seems way too large a lead to me.

I refuse to be hopeful about this particular race.  After that Paul Hackett debacle, I cannot bring myself to possibly underestimate the Ohio Democrats' ability to screw things up.

[Sam Spade]

It's another one of these Rasmussen one-day polls.  I'm still guessing that Strickland is leading by some amount, but it's probably too early to make any great reads out of this (since neither are incumbents).

Honestly, I don't particularly like the polling logic of these one-day polls (two to five days is the best time frame for a poll), because of the natural propensity for outliers I would think.

In order to read anything out of the polls, my statistical sense says to average two or three of these one-day thingys and you'll probably have something more to go on that lessens the outlier possibility.

I have actually suggested this on the SUSA approval polls as well (600 adults as a sample is also a problem to me).

Also, another complaint with the Rasmussen is that he's polling LV.  What is a LV in February 2006 for a November 2006 race?  You got me.

Shouldn't we be polling RV, not LV or adults at this point.

[socaldem]

While Strickland could be leading, this seems way too large a lead to me.

I refuse to be hopeful about this particular race.  After that Paul Hackett debacle, I cannot bring myself to possibly underestimate the Ohio Democrats' ability to screw things up.

Now that Blackwell's going negative--HARD--against Petro, Strickland's lead is destined to grow even more, against both GOPers...

The ads are pretty well done and should be effective at driving up Petro's negatives...

At the same time, there is always a backlash when one is associated with particularly negative advertising--particularly when you are stabbing the candidate favored by a significant portion of your own party, including the relatively moderate wing that just might defect.

Moreover, I expect to see Petro hit back.

The dems, meanwhile, continue to have a primary problem in the senate race, I'm outraged that Hackett's staffers, supporters, etc., are still going after Brown even after he's dropped out of the primary! 

[Gabu]

While Strickland could be leading, this seems way too large a lead to me.

I refuse to be hopeful about this particular race.  After that Paul Hackett debacle, I cannot bring myself to possibly underestimate the Ohio Democrats' ability to screw things up.

Now that Blackwell's going negative--HARD--against Petro, Strickland's lead is destined to grow even more, against both GOPers...

The ads are pretty well done and should be effective at driving up Petro's negatives...

At the same time, there is always a backlash when one is associated with particularly negative advertising--particularly when you are stabbing the candidate favored by a significant portion of your own party, including the relatively moderate wing that just might defect.

Moreover, I expect to see Petro hit back.

The dems, meanwhile, continue to have a primary problem in the senate race, I'm outraged that Hackett's staffers, supporters, etc., are still going after Brown even after he's dropped out of the primary! 

I'm still not going to be hopeful about Ohio until it's over and the Democrat is declared the victor, just out of caution.  At the moment it seems like the governor's mansion is a great chance for a Democrat pick-up, but there's still so much time for the Democrats to make a mistake, and I've lost a large amount of faith in the Ohio Democratic Party as of late.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

If there are no pickups in Ohio this year, Ohio can offiicially be called a 1 party state.

[© tweed]

If there are no pickups in Ohio this year, Ohio can offiicially be called a 1 party state.

Either that, or the OH Democrats can be called dysfunctional.  But I think Strickland will win by a small margin, certainly not 12 points, but more like 3-5%.

[Ben.]

If there are no pickups in Ohio this year, Ohio can offiicially be called a 1 party state.

Either that, or the OH Democrats can be called dysfunctional. 

Which they certainly are, then again while Brown will lose to DeWine by a wide margin (his concession speech will be the highlight of my evening after Casey’s victory speech ) Strickland should be able to beat Blackwell… the races lower down the ballot don’t look too good for the Dems it seems but in the present circumstances I would have thought they’d be able to pickup one or two of the other state-wide offices… but we’ll see.

As you say though Strickland should win, but he’ll win on his own strengths and in spit of the weaknesses of the Ohio Democratic Party.   

[Galactic Overlord]

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Actually, I tend to think the same of Blackwell.  I think either could win, for varying reasons.