3 questions on a posible sino-indian war

[WalterMitty]

1.  how likely is it?

2.  what would be the 'trigger'?

3.  what would be the consequences?

[phk]

1. There are other things that are more possible.

2. An India-Pakistan conflict (a Kashmir fight), with the Chinese coming to defend the Pakistanis.

The Pakistanis have played the Chinese-card in Kashmir before, in the 1960s and I bet India is pissed off at the Pakistanis for allowing the Chinese navy to conduct military excercises in Pakistani territorial waters.

Also, Pakinstan and The People's Republic of China have a mutual distrust of India. Which is why you usually see India getting weapons from Russia and Pakistan getting weapons from People's Republic of China. People need to fully understand the tension within the nuclear triangle of India, Pakistan, and China.

3. Big. There's a reason why India-Pakistan-China are called the nuclear triangle.

You have to understand Chinese encirclement fears, India's horrible record on management of its food surplus, the distrust between all parties, the purchasing of long-range, rapid-fire nuclear submarines this past October by India from Russia--which would break deterrence--and so forth.

[ag]

1. As of today, very unlikely, though nothing is impossible.

2. Tibet-Kashmir, as always.

3. Ok, you are talking 2, probably 3 nuclear powers, may be more. Figure out yourself.

[WalterMitty]

was the 1962 india-china war an actual 'war' or was it just a border skirmish?

[Kevin]

I would say that it was more of a border skirmish. However it could have delvoped into world war 3 if it had been anything else bigger than that.

[afleitch]

1.  how likely is it?

Not likely and for the same reasons the USA nd the USSR did not go to war.

2.  what would be the 'trigger'?

Something mundane like power or water resources

3.  what would be the consequences?

Neighbours would keep out, the West would keep out. Would nukes fly Probably not.