CA Field Poll: Bush Approval 39%

[angus]

if anyone is willing to bet real money that CA is going for Bush I will take that bet any day.

tempting, but I'll pass.

He'll do better than he did here last time, but Kerry will likely win.  If unemployment rises, bush gets the blame, if unemployment falls, Schwarzennegger gets the credit.  People have selective memories like that.  Especially people out here.  Too bad.

[angus]

Kerry will do better than Gore. here's why:

-ABB
-More immigration since 2000, Hispanic population is up
-Conservatives have been leaving, fleeing to states in the interior west.

according to what I've read it is "moderates" that are moving to places like AZ, NV, and UT, not "conservatives" but maybe we're just using different words to convey the same meaning.  In anycase, most folks I watch late night say Kerry will win out here, but make no mistake:  The GOP has seen the registration gap narrow, and has made inroads among the spanish-speaking community out here.  Don't be surprised if the Bush-Kerry difference is smaller than the Gore-Bush difference was in 2000.  Also, I'll say again that GWB ought to be spending more time and money out here in an effort to help statewide GOP candidates and help out in competitive house races.  I believe he will.  He will not make the same mistake his father made in 1992.

[angus]

I think I have trouble with these predictions, but like Boss Tweed, if I interpret correctly, I'd guess a clear Kerry victory here but with a smaller margin than Gore had.  This I base primarily on the gotv effort by republicans in this state and on the narrowing of the registration gap in the 2000-2003 period by about 2 percentage points.  It is also the case that the patronization of hispanics by the democrats hasn't played as well as the patronization of blacks by democrats.  I have some ideas about why, but it is a bit involved.

The other point is ABB:  seven minus one does not equal one.