Kerry will do better than Gore. here's why:
-ABB
-More immigration since 2000, Hispanic population is up
-Conservatives have been leaving, fleeing to states in the interior west.
according to what I've read it is "moderates" that are moving to places like AZ, NV, and UT, not "conservatives" but maybe we're just using different words to convey the same meaning. In anycase, most folks I watch late night say Kerry will win out here, but make no mistake: The GOP has seen the registration gap narrow, and has made inroads among the spanish-speaking community out here. Don't be surprised if the Bush-Kerry difference is smaller than the Gore-Bush difference was in 2000. Also, I'll say again that GWB ought to be spending more time and money out here in an effort to help statewide GOP candidates and help out in competitive house races. I believe he will. He will not make the same mistake his father made in 1992.
Barring anything major happening from now & Election Day I see California going to Kerry by about the same it went to Gore by. May be slighly lower or slighlty higher, but in the 9-14% range is my guess
