First off, if Bush is going to win any more votes in California, it won't be in the San Francisco Bay Area. I am also under the impression that California has been tending further left in the past four years. I believe that, in an election as close as that of 2000, Kerry will take this state with thirteen to eighteen points over Bush.
Many people have cited the voter registration statistics as evidence to support their beliefs. It is true that the percentage of Democrats in California has fallen 2% since October 2000, and the percentage of Republicans has risen slightly. (All of this is available here:
http://www.ss.ca.gov/elections/elections_u.htm)
However, this ignores the real question: where do these non-partisans stand, politically? If you take a close look at the voter registration statistics and the actual results in 2000, it becomes clear that the non-partisans who voted in 2000 are overwhelmingly left-leaning in their beliefs. This is, again, confirmed by the latest Field Poll, released today (
http://field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers/RLS2114.pdf). Kerry leads Bush 57-22 among independents, with 14% undecided. This, before Kerry has even started making his case for President in California.
While we cannot make any *conclusive* statements about the new non-partisans in this state, these are important things to keep in mind.
Other things about California:
There are also serious factors to take into consideration when dealing with such statistics. First off: the wealthiest and the most educated tend to vote the most often, whereas the poor tend to vote the least. The San Francisco Bay Area has just 7 million residents, but it is an extremely important area in California as it is very affluent, and is the most educated metro area in the United States (by graduate degrees/capita). As everyone should know by now, SF Bay Area residents prefer Kerry over Bush by a 3 to 1 margin. (This is reflected in the Field Poll above, with Californians with post-grad degrees preferring Kerry over Bush by a 67% to 23% margin.) The Bay Area, which experiences higher turnout than the rest of California in a normal presidential election cycle, should see even higher turnout this time around - especially with the virulent anti-Bush attitudes here. This will be a key factor in November.
Further causes for GOP concern:
- The Field Poll registered 46% to 45% Kerry-Bush in an area labeled "Orange/San Diego." (Both Orange and San Diego Counties are, historically, bastions of conservatism and make up THE foundation of any GOP effort in this state. Any erosion of this is an extremely negative signal for the GOP.)
- High-growth areas in California, like the Central Valley, are showing signs of GOP support dilution as they grow. Kerry leads Bush 44-43 in that crucial region as well.
- Arnold remains quite popular in CA, with a 60% approval rating. He has, however, been distancing himself from Bush, and it is my sense that he will not campaign for him. (Also, ask yourself why Bush didn't
campaign for Arnold in September 2003.)
To MODU:
Most of the people you saw protesting the gay marriages in San Francisco were flown in from Kansas and other parts of the Midwest and the South simply because there are so few people in this area who vehemently object to them. The San Francisco residents I met outside City Hall were handing out roses to the married couples.
The economy in California remains a big topic, especially in Silicon Valley. As we saw today, the economic numbers are not all rosy and it is my sense that the mediocre-to-good employment numbers we saw from March to April in the US will not continue. Note that the economic outlook in Silicon Valley remains poor, and the latest polls show the area tending even further anti-Bush against 2000. (I would say liberal, but this area is only socially liberal. It is fiscally anti-tax/centrist. The fact that Bush's tax cuts have not brought (bought?) him traction in Silicon Valley should be worrisome.)
"In Silicon Valley, the most important economic region of the state, Bush's approval rating has dropped precipitously from a year ago. His overall approval rating is 29-61% today, compared to 40-48% a year ago. And his handling of the situation with Iraq, which was 45-45% a year ago, stands at 25-65% today. Also in Silicon Valley, Bush's rating on handling of the economy worsened in March to 27-64% from 28-61% in January."
http://www2.sjsu.edu/spri/04survey/presbush.htmSanta Clara County, in the heart of Silicon Valley, voted in favor of Gore over Bush by 60.7% to 34.4%. However it is voter-rich, so Bush still received about 190,000 votes. A further loss of 75 to 100,000 votes in that county and the heavily-populated surrounding region, completely possible based on the latest poll of that area exclusively, would not be helpful to his overall chances in this state.
And finally, as I said above, I do believe that California is tending left. The affluent and educated regions are tending even further left as they become even more affluent and educated. (See Marin County returns over the past 30 years. Two hundred fifty thousand residents, and the median home price has risen above $700,000 for the first time ever. It has also grown increasingly Democratic/non-partisan, and decreasingly Republican since 2000. I believe that it is now the most affluent county in the US overall, and third based on income.) Los Angeles County has also become significantly more affluent since 2000 - strong election returns from this region should be crucial to Democrats in future elections. The socially liberal climate that permeates this state is driving away many conservatives. Living in California has also become quite unafforadable, and many residents are moving to the Midwest and the Southeast - particularly from the Bay Area and Los Angeles County. Finally, high-growth regions are becoming less strongly GOP as they expand, and are, in effect, reducing their impact.
Françoise
P.S. If the GOP is looking for support in CA, it will have to wait for a few more election cycles. As Latinos/Hispanics become more affluent, they will tend slightly more to the right, as they are socially conservative (see abortion and gay marriage.) However, less than ten percent of Latino/Hispanic voters currently identify these issues as important when voting. Healthcare, social welfare, and education take precedence for the time being. But even in this case, I must note that the younger generation of Latinos who are born into upper-middle class families are adapting to the socially liberal climate in which they find themselves surrounded.
