Rasmussen: GA Gov. Perdue (R) 49%, Cox (D) 41%; Perdue (R) 51%, Taylor (D) 41%

[Adlai Stevenson]

 March 26, 2006--In the race for the governor's mansion, Republican Georgia Governor Sonny Perdue still leads in projected match-ups with Democrats Secretary of State Cathy Cox and Lt. Governor Mark Taylor. But the latest Rasmussen Reports survey finds that both Democrats have gained ground compared to polls conducted earlier in the year.

Perdue leads Cox 49% to 41% and leads Taylor 51% to 41%. A month ago, he led both Democrats by 20 points. He also held a double digit lead against both Democrats in January.

Perdue, the state's first Republican governor since Reconstruction, remains a well-liked chief executive, viewed favorably by 70%, up two points from a month ago.

Cox is viewed favorably by 55%, Taylor by 53%. Cox was at 55% back in February, but Taylor has gained eight points and enjoys a much lower unfavorable rating now.

Voters unaffiliated with either major party tend to prefer the governor, but self-described moderates tend to prefer the Democrat.

The rolling average of the past three Rasmussen Reports polls shows Perdue leading Cox 51% to 37%. For this match-up, all three polls this year are within the margin of sampling error from this result. This raises the possibility that there may be little actual movement in the race and that the apparent tightening might be statistical noise.

However, the three-poll rolling average for the Perdue-Taylor match-up shows Perdue leading 53% to 35%. The most recent poll shows Taylor six points above this average. Additionally, Perdue’s support has declined each month when matched against Taylor (from 55% to 53% to 51%). This suggests that Taylor's gains are more than just statistical noise.

We have been asking several questions about the abortion issue in our state polls this month. The issue is in the news because of the recently passed (but not yet implemented) South Dakota law banning all abortions except when the life of the mother is in danger.

Crosstabs are available for Premium Members.

[More Below]

Forty-six percent (46%) of Georgia voters oppose such a law, 44% favor it. But 58% say it's too easy to get an abortion, and 63% say that abortion is morally wrong. Half of Republicans would support an abortion ban, along with 46% of Democrats. But many more conservatives support it than do liberals and moderates.

When it comes to electoral issues, 71% regard campaign finance reform as an important issue, but only 24% support public funding of campaigns. Fifty-nine percent (59%) believe most politicians would change their vote for a campaign contribution. Forty-one percent (41%) believe that the cost of influencing a Senator or Governor is $50,000 or more.

More Georgia voters (41%) trust churches or civic groups rather than the media (32%) to give them reliable information about campaigns.

[Alcon]

This is closer than I expected.

[Keystone Phil]

This is closer than I expected.

Agreed. We might have a race with this one. I remember a time when Perdue was in a slump and then rebounded big time. If he's falling behind again over the next couple of months this could end up being a close one.

[Democratic Hawk]

This is pleasing. The last Rasmussen poll I saw had Perdue leading Cox by 54 to 34

Dave

[ian]

Remember, however, that this is probably the lowest point for Republicans to acheive.  And Perdue has a 70% favorability rating.  As Phil (?) likes to point out about Mr. Talent, what has Perdue done for people NOT to vote for him?
Democrats' eventual loss in this state is, perhaps, a good thing, because if Cox or Taylor lose by a relatively small margin, they gain name recognition for runs against Chambliss or Isakson or open seats for the governorship and Senate seats in the future.

[Alcon]

Perdue has a 52% approval rating in the SurveyUSA polling.  Where are you getting 70% from?  That's quite a poll difference, if it's in this poll.

[Q]

Taylor is a fool to continue with this.  He really should just run for re-election as Lt. Gov.; he'd win easily against any of the current candidates and set himself up to run for Gov. in 2010 (for a open seat if Perdue wins this year).  I'm shocked that he's still in this race.

And I suppose Cox still has a chance here.  An 8-point deficit isn't necessarily insurmountable, and it's much better than recent months' polls.

[HardRCafé]

Taylor is a superior candidate to Cox.  Her run is ridiculous, if feasible.

[Keystone Phil]

  As Phil (?) likes to point out about Mr. Talent, what has Perdue done for people NOT to vote for him?

While I do wonder about that for both men, I have never mentioned that in my commentary (or atleast I don't remember asking about it).