2005 Gubernatorial Races as Indicators

[Yates]

I post this under the assumption that others have yet to make this point.  Many conclude that the Democrats are on a "winning streak" because of their recent victories in Virginia and New Jersey.  According to many Democratic loyalists, victories in these two races indicate a likely Democratic gain in 2006.  However, did not the Democratic Party win both of these races in 2001?  And, if so, did not the Democratic Party lose seats in Congress and Governors in 2002?  The 2005 Gubernatorial races are not very indicative of future success, in the opinion of this Iowan.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

I post this under the assumption that others have yet to make this point.  Many conclude that the Democrats are on a "winning streak" because of their recent victories in Virginia and New Jersey.  According to many Democratic loyalists, victories in these two races indicate a likely Democratic gain in 2006.  However, did not the Democratic Party win both of these races in 2001?  And, if so, did not the Democratic Party lose seats in Congress and Governors in 2002?  The 2005 Gubernatorial races are not very indicative of future success, in the opinion of this Iowan.

The Iowan is correct

[Frodo]

Looked at by themselves, I would agree with you that off-year gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia cannot be reliable indicators of the change of fortunes of the Democratic and Republican parties in the next general election.  However, take it back a year and you might start seeing a pattern:

In 1992, Democrats made their greatest gains in years in both houses of the legislature solidifying their majority, as well as capturing the presidency for the first time in more than a a decade, resulting in complete Democratic control of the federal government for the first time since 1980.

In 1993, Republicans won both gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia, which was followed a year later by the Republican takeover of Congress in 1994.
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In 2004, Republicans increased their majorities in both houses of Congress, and President Bush won his second term by a much larger margin than he had done four years ago, resulting in Republican control of the federal government at both elected branches.

In 2005, Democrats handily won gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia. 

2006:.................................
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Off-year gubernatorial elections only take on added significance if they take place after a presidential election year that resulted in the complete takeover of the federal government by either of the two major political parties (as well as solidfying congressional majorities of that political party), and they represent a sort of turning-of-the-tide, presenting harbingers of what is to come. 

For this reason neither 2001 or 1997 are significant enough to warrant much attention as compared to 1993 and 2005. 

[Yates]

You arguments have logic, but I do not believe one can pick and choose when to recognize the significance of an event.