As promised by Mason-Dixon yesterday. No real change or movement in the poll compared to their last one.
Brad Coker's comments are still funny to us poll-watchers.
Topline numbers anywho:
Bill Nelson - 51%
Katherine Harris - 35%
SourceIncumbent Bill Nelson continues to hold a double-digit lead over challenger U.S. Rep. Katherine Harris in the 2006 race for U.S. Senate, according to a statewide poll released Tuesday.
The survey of 625 likely voters found Democrat Nelson with 51 percent, Harris with 35 percent and 14 percent undecided -- numbers that show little change from six months ago.
Pollster Brad Coker said the results suggest that many voters remain only vaguely aware of the race and the candidates.
"People haven't tuned in that much," said Coker, managing director of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, which conducted the survey for the Orlando Sentinel and WESH-Channel 2. "Right now, a lot of this stuff is inside baseball."
For Harris, R-Longboat Key, that's good news and bad news.
On the upside, she has not lost much ground to Nelson despite weeks of media coverage about illegal campaign contributions, a long list of staff defections and lack of support within her own party.
But she also apparently got no positive bump from her announcement on national television two weeks ago that she was committing $10 million of her personal fortune to the campaign.
That interview, conducted by friend and supporter Sean Hannity, was designed to re-energize supporters and end speculation that Harris would drop out of the race.
Before the announcement, her top advisers had suggested she quit because they saw little chance she can win.
In part, that's because they found Harris has alienated some moderate Republicans, a conclusion borne out by Tuesday's poll, which has a margin of error of 4 percentage points.
It found that 21 percent of registered Republicans say they would vote for Nelson if the election were today. About half of the voters not affiliated with a party would do the same.
Key to contest
To unseat Nelson, Coker said Harris would have to carry 85 percent to 90 percent of Republicans and a solid majority of independent voters. She also will have to appeal to women voters, who now prefer Nelson by 26 percentage points.
Despite the numbers, Coker said the disarray hounding the Harris campaign is not necessarily fatal -- at least not yet. Although political junkies have been following the Harris saga, many typical voters won't focus on the race for months.
"The level of panic that set in," he said, "may not have been warranted."
More significant for Harris is Nelson's steadily improving job rating, Coker said.
In the poll, 57 percent of respondents said the Orlando Democrat was doing a "good" or "excellent" job. That's up 9 points from three years ago.
The poll shows Nelson leading in all regions of the state, ahead by wide margins in Central Florida, South Florida and the Tampa-St. Petersburg/Gulf Coast area.
In North Florida, he leads by just 2 percentage points.
Nelson 'bundling strength'
"Nelson has been quietly bundling his strength," Coker said. "With him up around a 57 percent job-approval rating, it's going to be hard to run against him on a 'time for a change' message."
A spokeswoman for the Harris campaign insisted Nelson was vulnerable because, on name recognition, fewer than half of respondents had a favorable opinion of him.
Nelson's unfavorable rating, however, was 14 percent, while Harris' was 31 percent.
A Nelson spokesman said Nelson's crossover appeal reflected his willingness to "reach across the aisle" and work with Republicans.
"People around the state seem very satisfied with his centrist, common-sense leadership," Chad Clanton said.
The results mirror two other polls conducted since June 2005. At that point, Nelson was at 53 percent, and Harris was at 36 percent. In October, Nelson was at 52 percent, and Harris was at 37 percent.
