2009/10 boundary changes. Part I: UPDATED

[Harry Hayfield]

Two questions on these maps

1) Are these boundaries (and their notional 2005 results) fixed in stone and if so where can I download the calculations (so I know which councils to track on May 4th)?

2) On the 1992 boundaries it was Darlington (inside Sedgefield), Bath (inside Wansdyke) and Cheltenham (inside Cirencester), on the 1997 boundaries it was Colchester (inside Essex North) and Carlisle (inside Penrith and the Border) and now on the 2009 boundaries we're going to have the City of York (inside York Outer)!. What is the point of constituencies within constituencies?

[Harry Hayfield]

question (sorry if it has been asked before)

will these new boundary changes help or hurt any of the parties, like if the 2005 election was held under the new seats what would the seat totals look like. 

also will Hornsey and Wood Green seat be changed a lot.  This is the district my cousin lives in.

Lab majority of 66 becomes a Lab majority of 46 (or thereabouts)

[Harry Hayfield]

The East Midlands

Now, I've got to the East Midlands yet (I'm working on the constituencies by area in increasing order of size and am currently on Yorkshire), but if you are suggesting a 5% swing from Lab to Con (Lab -5% Con +5% Lib Dem Unchanged Others Unchanged), that indicates a swing of 2.5% from Lab to Lib Dem which would (by 2005 standards) send Derby South and Leicester South into the Lib Dem column, correct?

[Harry Hayfield]

May I ask that the moderator merges this discussion with the discussion I launched about my calculations (as they appear to be the same thing). I have e-mailed Martin Baxter and he says that my calculations are indeed correct. So at the first stage (based on % similarity with the old constituencies), the notional results for 2005 are:

Labour 347 + Speaker = 348
Conservatives 213
Liberal Democrats 60
Northern Ireland Parties 18
Scottish Nationalists 6
Plaid Cymru 2
Independent (Peter Law) 1
Independent (Richard Taylor) 1
Respect (George Galloway) 1
Labour majority of 46

The Labour majority is based on it's 23 most marginal seats which are:

Clwyd West
Crawley
Battersea
Warwick and Leamington
Stroud
Gillingham and Rainham
Rochester and Strood
Hove
Dartford
Finchley and Golders Green
Somerset North East
High Peak
Portsmouth North
Stourbridge
City of Chester
Hastings and Rye
Cardiff North
Calder Valley
Wirral West
Burton
Swindon South
Corby