2009/10 boundary changes. Part I: UPDATED

[Voice from the South West]

Cornwall stays completely yellow with the addition of St Austell and Newquay, but with a Lib Dem majority of less than 2%

I am rather sceptical about this. Newquay yes does have plenty of Tory councillors, but St Austell voting Tory? That’s something I can't quite imagine. I was always under the impression that the Lib Dem's main block of support in Truro and St Austell came from the latter, which used to out-vote the former. This makes me believe that Truro and Falmouth will be a better prospect for the Tories than people imagine it will be - again I would hardly call Camborne a pillar of Tory strength, most of the Tory vote in Falmouth and Camborne must have come from the former (again!) however Newquay is growing so there probably is potential there.

Notional results in the South West are always more difficult to calculate anyway due to the large amount of ticket splitting between local and parliamentary elections, the large number of independent councillors and uncontested seats, personal votes, etc, etc. Not taking anything away from Wells, but as I mentioned on his website I know his result for Torridge and West Devon is wrong. There’s an impression that because the area that’s being taken out and put into Central Devon is currently the only part of the constituency that is represented by Conservative County Councillors that it will hurt the Tories – it won’t I was there at the count and I know for a fact that the majority was delivered more than anything in Torridge, but I digress.

As for a possible general election result, well the Liberals have historically performed poorly whenever the Tories win a general election from opposition al la 1970, 1979. I suspect that *if* the Tories do win the next election and win a majority, then Lib Dems could face a severe hammering.

[Voice from the South West]

As for a possible general election result, well the Liberals have historically performed poorly whenever the Tories win a general election from opposition al la 1970, 1979. I suspect that *if* the Tories do win the next election and win a majority, then Lib Dems could face a severe hammering.

I think alot of local knowledge helps when calculating things like this. I had problems with everyone saying Dumfries and Galloway would go Tory last year for example. The Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweedale seat flipped in the end. At the end of the day, anyone with local knowledge knew it would as it contained the Tory voting areas carved out of the other seats and put together again straddling the M74.

Yes precisely - I hope that when Rallings and Thrasher release the notional results they do a damn better job than what they did in Scotland last time. So many of there calculations were completely off considering some of the 'strange' change in shares of the votes in certain seats. I wasn't at all surprised by DC+T because I remember posters from the area said it was a far better seat for the Tories than the notional result suggested.

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Believe me I would be jumping for joy too. Its still a big if, but providing the right circumstances come into play in Devon I could quite easily see the Lib Dems reduced to one seat - most likely Newton Abbot - whilst in Cornwall if Breed retires South East Cornwall would probably go down, North Cornwall potentially too, and either St Austell and Newquay or Truro and Falmouth. If I can I'll try and post a map - but the right circumstances would have to exist – IE a majority national Conservative victory and good PPC's - neither of which as of 2006 we have no idea whether that will happen at all.

[Voice from the South West]

Up next, the West Midlands



Again, the second image shows a hypothetical 5% swing to the Tories.

I thought Well's gave Hemming a majority in Birmingham Yardley

Comments on the notional numbers...

Hemming might have (just about) led on those new Yardley boundaries. Which is probably just academic as unless something changes, he's going to lose no matter what...

Well I don't really know what Hemming's been up to regarding his local situation but what makes you so sure he'll lose? If the national trend against Labour continues at the next general election then its hard to see how Labour will regain the seats they lost to the Lib Dems in 2005, even if nationally the Lib Dems have a crap year. Are the boundary changes to Yardley particularly harmful to Hemming then?

[Voice from the South West]

Well I don't really know what Hemming's been up to regarding his local situation

His credibility hath been rather badly damaged by certain revalations about his private life (and the two digit number of affairs he's had; one of which resulted in his mistress getting pregnant). He's also become a bit of a joke at Westminster; did you hear about his abortive leadership campaign? He was actually being serious...

I'm not sure Hemming had that much credibility in the first place. Quite frankly I'm amazed the people for Yardley have fallen for him in the first place (or does John "get things done us"?) - if Hemming stood anyware else I'm sure he would get hammered - I'm fairly sure he would go down like a lead balloon in the South West, that's for sure.

[Voice from the South West]

I'm not sure Hemming had that much credibility in the first place.

He did and (up to a point) still does in parts of Birmingham...

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Yes; "John gets things done for us" is the best way of looking at it; the Yardley LibDems are basically your typical suburban (and anti-inner City machines) political machine. They clean up at local elections to a huge degree; turnouts are very low, but there is still a fair bit of ticket splitting.

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That he would, especially now.

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Hmmm, if the national tide continues, or does swing away from Labour I think it will be difficult for your lot to oust him at the next general election. After that however...

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Well far be it from me to think such things