2009/10 boundary changes. Part I: UPDATED

[afleitch]

I thought it would be interesting to discuss the changes, similar to London in the 'London Major' thread. Once again I'll have two maps. How Anthony Wells sees it and secondly, a hypothetical 5% to the Conservatives



And with a 5% Swing....



There are some major and lesser, superficial chages here. Cornwall, Devon and the old Avon counties each again an extra seat.

The most obvious addition is Chippenham, giving the Lib Dems a long wanted seat in Wiltshire with a majority of around 2.7%. There is a new Decon Central seat and in Avon, Filton adn Bradley stoke which according to Wells will be a three way marginal

CON 14742
LAB 13541
LIB 11243

Cornwall stays completely yellow with the addition of St Austell and Newquay, but with a Lib Dem majority of less than 2%

[afleitch]

secondly, a hypothetical 5% to the Conservatives

Is that the swing needed for a majority or something?

1.5% swing - Labour looses it's majority
4.4% swing - Tories largest party

So I chose 5% as a rough guide (thats if both Labour and Lib Dem seats swung towards the Tories) It's 'just a bit of fun' as Snow would say

It would take a swing of 7.1% to gain a majority, sadly Wells has only listed the list of Tory target seats to 6.1%.

[afleitch]

That may be because the chances of the Tories getting a swing quite that large seem pretty remote

I'd agree- in the uniform swing, which is worth nothing these days really But like the 6.5% swing in Putney last year you do get exceptions. Many of the ultramarginals may stay Labour, but I would expect seats further down the target list switching. A 3% swing to Lab from the Lib Dems would see Labour take Rochdale, Manchester Whitherington, Bristol West, Leeds North West, Hornsey and Chesterfield in that order.

[afleitch]

Yes Manchester holding things up. Here's hoping the damn thing gets approved before 09/10 or we will be using constituencies based on data thats 18 or 19 years old

[afleitch]

As for a possible general election result, well the Liberals have historically performed poorly whenever the Tories win a general election from opposition al la 1970, 1979. I suspect that *if* the Tories do win the next election and win a majority, then Lib Dems could face a severe hammering.

And how it would bring tears of joy to my eyes

I think alot of local knowledge helps when calculating things like this. I had problems with everyone saying Dumfries and Galloway would go Tory last year for example. The Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweedale seat flipped in the end. At the end of the day, anyone with local knowledge knew it would as it contained the Tory voting areas carved out of the other seats and put together again straddling the M74.

[afleitch]

Good work Andrew

I'm not too familiar with the Southwest but the Electoral Calculus has the new Filton and Bradley Stoke seat as notionally Labour but a marginal nevertheless

Dave

I know. EC seems to use a system where the treat voting patterns as uniform across each seat and move 'percentages' into on seat from another. Wells looks at the makeup of the individual wards moved from one seat to another. Both are never 100% accurate and they give different results (including Chippenham I think) but Wells' methods seem more reasonable and will probably be adjusted a littleagain across England after the May elections

[afleitch]

Up next, the West Midlands



Again, the second image shows a hypothetical 5% swing to the Tories.

[afleitch]

Up next Yorkshire



York Outer looks very,very strange....
Note Keighley being Keighley even after a 5% swing

[afleitch]

Re York Outer...
It's better than the alternative the Commission had under the rules ... ie York E and W (or N and S) constituencies, splitting the city proper along some wholly unnatural line, both extending far into, indeed past, the suburbs... the fault lies with the rules.

Oh yes, that's certainly true. York Outer was the best they could have done in the circumstances.
And I would have been very angry if they had got rid of the City of York constituency...

Same here. As an historic city and old 'county town' it would have been a travesty to demolish it.

[afleitch]

The North West (excuding Cumbria for reasons of space)



UPDATED: with Greater Manchester changes

[afleitch]

The North West (excuding Cumbria for reasons of space)

Note: The Greater Manchester boundaries are under review.

No longer!

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/pbc/review_areas/Greater_Manchester_Boroughs/

Thank Christ!

I'll double check them and see what changes, if any, there are top the borders above.

EDIT- Some significant changes in Oldham, Rochdale and Tameside. I'll update in a minute or so.

EDIT...AGAIN - Done

[afleitch]

The East Midlands

[afleitch]

Now, I've got to the East Midlands yet (I'm working on the constituencies by area in increasing order of size and am currently on Yorkshire), but if you are suggesting a 5% swing from Lab to Con (Lab -5% Con +5% Lib Dem Unchanged Others Unchanged), that indicates a swing of 2.5% from Lab to Lib Dem which would (by 2005 standards) send Derby South and Leicester South into the Lib Dem column, correct?

It could. That is presuming that there will be a national 'uniform' swing to the Lid Dems at all. I chose (with the limited info that Wells released) a basic old fashioned unrealistic 5% swing towards the Conservatives and away from Labour in Lab/Con marginals and away from the Lib Dems in Lib/Con marginals, simply for comparison and really nothing more

A 2.5% swing to the Lib Dems in Lab/Lib marginals would see them pick up

Oxford East
Edinburgh South
Islington South and Finsbury
Oldham East and Saddleworth (pre final boundaries)
Watford (though as a tight 3 way marginal it would probably got Tory)
Hampstead and Kilburn
Aberdeen South

Wells has stated that Oldham East becomes much safter for Labour, a 400 maj compared to a 500 maj under the old boundaries.

Leicester South would fall on a 4.39 swing and Derby North would fall on a 4.43 swing (!?)

[afleitch]

The South East and London



And another 5% swing

[afleitch]

I would prefer it if this thread stayed seperate. I'm offering a series of maps for a region by region analysis to show a visual impact of the boundary changes. I'm also using Anthony Well's methodology, not Baxters. While both have their flaws, (as does Rawlings and Thrasher when they get round to it) and Baxters results are more freely avaliable I've decided to go with Wells due to his consideration of voting differences 'within' constituencies.