Its interesting seeing the varying effects of different swings on a regional basis.
If the last election was anything to go by then it’s highly likely that we’ll see strong regional variations in the election results.
Something that is likely to be exacerbated by the nature of the Party’s, Brown led authoritarian Labour Party, Cameron led liberal Conservative Party and… er… the LibDems
I could imagine Labour doing well in certain types of seats that it has traditionally held.
The Tories should make progress beyond the national trend in the London and the South East* against Labour and the LibDems, what will be critical will be how well they do against the LibDems in the West Country and Labour in the West Midlands.
In the end I think the key battleground will be Redditch, Dudley, Wolverhampton etc… in the west midlands and to a lesser extent similar seats in the east midlands and south Yorkshire. Cameron’s conservatives can certainly drive home a traditional “Tory” advantage against Labour and the LibDems in the London Suburbs, Kent and Hampshire (etc…) but Cameron has yet to make much of an impact beyond there IMHO while at the same time Labour and Brown seem to have done little to cement their grip either.
In the end Birmingham Edgbaston should give us a very good idea of how the next election is going, what is more its usually one of the first “marginals” to declare.
*I strongly doubt that Cameron will junk the standard Tory fair of some variation on a tough line on immigration, though no doubt it will be articulated on a fairly limited basis (heavily target on specific seats no doubt). Consequently I see no reason for the Tories to continue their progress in Kent.
