TX-CBS/YouGov: Cornyn +8/+6

[LimoLiberal]

https://twitter.com/Robillard/status/1282323079474163712

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://drive.google.com/file/d/18HFC79lmRr1KVcbrUysfJd6XpLZxZxaP/view

July 7-10, 2020
MoE among likely voters: 3.4%

Cornyn vs Hegar
1179 likely voters

Cornyn 44%
Hegar 36%
Someone else 4%
Would not vote 1%
Undecided 15%

Cornyn vs West
1182 likely voters

Cornyn 43%
West 37%
Someone else 3%
Would not vote 1%
Undecided 15%

[MT Treasurer]

Undecideds are largely female, moderate, non-white and aged 18-29 + 30-44 (i.e., the only age groups Hegar/West are winning). Trump +1 would likely be enough for Cornyn to hold on, but I really don’t buy that this one isn’t going to be close or that Cornyn is heavily favored even if Ernst loses.

[VAR]

Undecideds are largely female, moderate, non-white and aged 18-29 + 30-44 (i.e., the only age groups Hegar/West are winning). Trump +1 would likely be enough for Cornyn to hold on, but I really don’t buy that this one isn’t going to be close or that Cornyn is heavily favored even if Ernst loses.

Then why are non-whites and young people undecided? The questioner asks whether they want to vote for, “Mary ‘MJ’ Hegar, the DEMOCRAT”. Then why don’t African-Americans* (Biden +81) and Hispanics (Biden +30) say they’ll vote for her? Could it be because they really are undecided?

Sure, Cornyn may not win by double digits. But I really can’t see Hegar getting close.

* Cornyn gets 12% of the AA vote. Trump gets 5%.

[Brittain33]

Undecideds are largely female, moderate, non-white and aged 18-29 + 30-44 (i.e., the only age groups Hegar/West are winning). Trump +1 would likely be enough for Cornyn to hold on, but I really don’t buy that this one isn’t going to be close or that Cornyn is heavily favored even if Ernst loses.

Then why are non-whites and young people undecided? The questioner asks whether they want to vote for, “Mary ‘MJ’ Hegar, the DEMOCRAT”. Then why don’t African-Americans* (Biden +81) and Hispanics (Biden +30) say they’ll vote for her? Could it be because they really are undecided?

Sure, Cornyn may not win by double digits. But I really can’t see Hegar getting close.

* Cornyn gets 12% of the AA vote. Trump gets 5%.

People may not commit to voting someone they've never heard of, even if they're in the same party. Hegar's still obscure and Texas is a huge state with low awareness of party politics among what would be the Democratic base. There's a reason why presidential matchups nationally had higher undecideds with Buttigieg and Klobuchar than with Sanders and Biden earlier this year.

[VAR]

Undecideds are largely female, moderate, non-white and aged 18-29 + 30-44 (i.e., the only age groups Hegar/West are winning). Trump +1 would likely be enough for Cornyn to hold on, but I really don’t buy that this one isn’t going to be close or that Cornyn is heavily favored even if Ernst loses.

Then why are non-whites and young people undecided? The questioner asks whether they want to vote for, “Mary ‘MJ’ Hegar, the DEMOCRAT”. Then why don’t African-Americans* (Biden +81) and Hispanics (Biden +30) say they’ll vote for her? Could it be because they really are undecided?

Sure, Cornyn may not win by double digits. But I really can’t see Hegar getting close.

* Cornyn gets 12% of the AA vote. Trump gets 5%.

People may not commit to voting someone they've never heard of, even if they're in the same party. Hegar's still obscure and Texas is a huge state with low awareness of party politics among what would be the Democratic base. There's a reason why presidential matchups nationally had higher undecideds with Buttigieg and Klobuchar than with Sanders and Biden earlier this year.

I think you’re right. Thanks for explaining!

[SN2903]

Safe R race. Presidential level Lean R.

[Yellowhammer]

Tilt D

[Mr. Smith]

This likely means Cornyn actually wins by 4-3 if things remain stable and undecideds don't  lopsidedly go Democratic.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Tilt D

lol

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Undecideds are largely female, moderate, non-white and aged 18-29 + 30-44 (i.e., the only age groups Hegar/West are winning). Trump +1 would likely be enough for Cornyn to hold on, but I really don’t buy that this one isn’t going to be close or that Cornyn is heavily favored even if Ernst loses.

Then why are non-whites and young people undecided? The questioner asks whether they want to vote for, “Mary ‘MJ’ Hegar, the DEMOCRAT”. Then why don’t African-Americans* (Biden +81) and Hispanics (Biden +30) say they’ll vote for her? Could it be because they really are undecided?

Sure, Cornyn may not win by double digits. But I really can’t see Hegar getting close.

* Cornyn gets 12% of the AA vote. Trump gets 5%.

African American voters historically tell pollsters they are undecided more frequently than White voters for some reason.

*I don't doubt that Cornyn can get double the share of the Black vote that Trump gets.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Unfortunately,  for TX voters, they havent had a good record in voting for female candidates to Gov, Sen or the Prez, Valdez and Wendy Davis failed at both the Governorships. Hegar is a Greenfield type candidate, but Greenfield is electable in IA, TX would have voted for Julian or Joaquin Castro

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Texas Senator by YouGov on 2020-07-10

Summary: D: 36%, R: 44%, U: 16%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Former President tack50]

Likely R race remains Likely R