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November 19, 2017, 11:19:55 am
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News: Election 2018 predictions for US Senate are now open!.

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Author Topic: 2018 Senate Predictions & Analysis  (Read 524 times)
Dave Leip
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« on: November 13, 2017, 09:59:30 pm »

Hi,
The 2018 US Senate predictions are now available here
Enjoy,
Dave
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heatcharger
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« Reply #1 on: November 13, 2017, 10:55:42 pm »
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Hi,

Will the 2018 Gubernatorial predictions be available soon as well?

Thanks,
heatcharger

Also can I get permission to add polls to the database?
« Last Edit: November 13, 2017, 11:12:53 pm by heatcharger »Logged

Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #2 on: November 14, 2017, 04:17:05 am »
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Here's where we are right now in my predictions. Obviously a lot can change in a year. Republicans currently projected to have a net gain of 1 seat.

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TRUMPISM IS DEAD!!! KISS IT GOODBYE, OR SAY HELLO TO SPEAKER PELOSI!!!
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#SherrodBrown2020
https://tengaged.com/user/JasonEldridge

'18 Gov. Ratings: https://tinyurl.com/h35xfkr (10/9: AZ: Lean R --> Strong Lean R)
'17/'18 Senate Ratings: http://tinyurl.com/yb7sxe9a (11/14: AL: Lean R --> Toss-Up)
'18 House Rating: Lean R (11/7: Strong Lean R -> Lean R)
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« Reply #3 on: November 14, 2017, 03:08:37 pm »
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I never use toss ups.

Current predictions:

Senate 2017/2018:

Here

Governor 2018/2019:

Here

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
slightlyburnttoast
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« Reply #4 on: November 15, 2017, 09:07:46 pm »
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Currently I think that Democrats lose in MO and IN but get pickups in NV and AZ. It's very plausible that Donnelly could survive, so either no net change or D+1 for 2018.

I also think that AL-SEN race is Tilt D at this point (still a tossup, but if I had give it a tilt either way, I would say D). So counting 2017, after the 2018 elections I could see D+2 as a best-case realistic scenario for the Democrats.
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Endorsements:

'18 MI Gov: Gretchen Whitmer (D)
'18 MI Sen: Debbie Stabenow (D, inc.)
'18 MI 12th: Debbie Dingell (D, inc.)

'17 NJ Gov: Phil Murphy (D) Smiley
'17 VA Gov: Ralph Northam (D) Smiley
'17 AL Sen: Doug Jones (D)


Current 2020 Favorites: Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI), Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH), Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA)
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« Reply #5 on: November 16, 2017, 10:45:45 pm »
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Mine:



Also, add Alabama as a 40% Lean D pickup.
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