Rasmussen: NJ Sen. Kean (R) 43%, Menendez (D) 36%

[Adlai Stevenson]

April 18, 2006--The son of former Governor Tom Kean (R) now has a seven percentage point advantage in New Jersey's U.S. Senate campaign. The latest Rasmussen Reports election poll in the Garden State shows Republican Tom Kean, Jr. leading Senator Robert Menendez (D) 43% to 36%.

Seven percent (7%) of voters say that they will vote for some other candidate and 14% remain undecided in this Democratic leaning state.

A month ago, Kean held a two-point advantage, 41% to 39%.

Kean has solidified support among Republicans since our last poll while Menendez has lost ground among Democrats. From an ideological perspective, Kean has improved his standing with conservative voters in the state.

Sixty-six percent (66%) of New Jersey voters believe that the U.S. should gain control of its borders and enforce existing laws before considering other immigration reform. Just 29% disagree.

As an ultimate policy goal, 57% of New Jersey voters believe that all should be welcome to legally enter the United States except national security threats, criminals, and those who plan to live off the U.S. welfare system.

Nationally, in purely political terms, Democrats lost ground during the recent Congressional debate concerning immigration. It is not clear whether or not the issue had any particular impact on the New Jersey Senate race.

While Kean leads in the poll, Menendez is currently leading in the fundraising competition. According to recent filings, the incumbent's campaign has more than $6 million cash on hand compared to $2 million for the Kean campaign.

Menendez is the incumbent, having been appointed to replace Jon Corzine (D). Corzine resigned from the Senate after being elected Governor of New Jersey.

Sixty percent (60%) of New Jersey voters say that tax hikes hurt the economy. Just 15% say that they help. Kean has a solid lead (56% to 26%) among those who believe tax increases are bad for the economy.

Forty-nine percent (49%) of voters say that preparing their taxes is worse than going to the dentist. Thirty-seven percent (37%) say a trip to the dental chair is worse.

The rolling average of the last three Rasmussen Reports election polls in New Jersey is unchanged from a month ago. Using this measure, Kean still leads by just two points 40% to 38%. This suggests that the race still remains very competitive. That, plus the Menendez cash advantage and the Democratic leaning of the state, should keep the Kean campaign from getting comfortable with their lead in the current poll.

[Ben.]

There is a god! And he really doesn’t like Bob Menendez

All that said… it will be a very tough and competitive election with Menendez sure to hold a solid advantage in terms of cash and have the NJ political machine firmly behind him, But despite this Kean is a stellar candidate and should be able to win this one.

[Kevin]

Kean is going to pull through in the end no matter what.

[Keystone Phil]

No candidate is up by more than three-five points in this race. I could understand if the poll had Kean with a slight edge (though I think Menendez has the small advantage at this point) but seven points is too much.

[Q]

I pity New Jersey.  Choices between unsavory candidates in almost every election.

[Keystone Phil]

I pity New Jersey.  Choices between unsavory candidates in almost every election.

Kean is actually a good candidate. I can see people questioning someone like Forrester and Schundler (though I'd disagree with them) but Kean is different.

[Yates]

This does not seem accurate.

[ATFFL]

I can buy this if, and only if, Menendex is getting caught in a Corzine backlash.

[Gabu]

Have we ever seen two polls in a role for New Jersey that showed the same candidate in the lead?  This is the weirdest race ever.

[Gustaf]

Hm, seems like to big a margin to me. Since I just made it I'm not gonna change my prediction of a Menendez win just yet...but it's a troubling sign, definitely.

[Galactic Overlord]

This is perhaps the best scenario possible for a Republican to win a Senate seat in New Jersey, short of the president having sky-high approval ratings and actually having Tom Kean, Sr. run.