Kerry expanding into Virginia

[Lunar]

http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/05/28/kerry.ads.ap/index.html

John Kerry will make a push into Republican-leaning Virginia when he launches new television commercials next week, the start of a $17 million monthlong ad campaign that also targets black and Hispanic audiences.

A mere probe into the Virginian populace to see how receptive it is?  Part of a feint to register the Bush campaign's reaction? Or part of a larger strategy?  Certainly his campaign isn't following what you would expect.

[Lunar]

I suppose it's sort of a valid strategy to keep as many states in play until you find out where the chips fall later in the year.

[Lunar]

Because it shows a new strategy for the Kerry campaign.

[Lunar]

I suppose it's a further extension of the Lousiana/Colorado strategy: targeting states that they really shouldn't.

[Lunar]

Mass liberal carrying Va.  Some of you guys are smoking crack.

Not everyone sees him how you do.

I don't think he has a chance either, but perhaps now is too early to be discarding any states.  On top of that, it's a cheap way to get media coverage as Vorlon pointed out.

[Lunar]

There is also some evidence that Bush is running a tad better in the Battleground states than he is nationally

    -The last Gallup national poll had Bush +5 in the Battlegrounds
    -Fox had Bush +4 in the Battlegrounds
    -TIPP had Bush +6 in the battlegrounds

While the sample sizes in the battleground part of these national polls is quite small (240-360 ish) the fact that ALL THREE say roughly the same thing  makes me marginally more likely to believe it is true.

Believe what is true?  What does the "battlegrounds" number even mean?  This number is simply not very useful.  If the polling firm includes Louisiana, Nevada, Colorado, Arizona, Missouri, etc. in this number, it's going to be skewed towards Bush.  Of course, some states like Minnesota and Maine will skew it slightly back to Kerry, but they don't add up to nearly the same amount.  Or even if they did, the average number for all of them still doesn't reflect the overall situation in the battlegrounds.  Bush could be doing extremely well in Florida but worse in Ohio.

[Lunar]

I still disagree that this number actually means anything.

[Lunar]

A state reaches its saturation limit too.  I wouldn't be surprised if your "bang" decreases exponentially the more bucks you put in.

[Lunar]

dude..I dont have a problem with you...just admit that your predictions are effected by your pro Bush bias just like everyone else. admitting you are biased is the first step....we are all biased....are we to assume that you are the only unbiased person (highly unlikely a lifelong Republican can suddenly become unbiased)

Yes, how dare he predict a Kerry victory on Nov 02.  If he does indeed prefer the Republicans like you claim, how does that translate into him skewing his predictions in their favor?

And he does indeed have inside information.  You've seen it posted more than once.

[Lunar]

Might be another one of those fake maps.  There is no way that one is serious.