Kerry expanding into Virginia

[The Vorlon]

(I am making both of these up BTW)

The Fox News/New York Post version of events...

"Desperate at seeing once safe Democratic states such as Michigan and New Jersey suddenly tighten, the Kerry camp today adopted a last gasp "hail Mary" strategy to try to bring additional states into play by targeting Virginia, and to create the illusion of movement to bolster sagging Democratic spirits regarding their listless candidate...."

The CNN/CBS version of events.....

"Flush with cash from millions of small doners, and striking to capitilize on plummeting Bush approval ratings (as shown by a new CBS news poll showing Bush down 82% to 17% among delegates to the Democratic National Convention) The Kerry campaign seeks to expand it's already commanding electoral college lead by attacking once safe GOP strongholds such as Virginia...."

But seriously....

Both sides have piles of cash, they can afford a few "recon" missions into hostile territory to see if there are any targets of opportunity.

I expect the GOP will do the same in New Jersey.

If things go according to form we can expect a couple "leaked" polls in the next week - one from a GOP firm showing Bush within 3% in New Jersey, and one from a Democratic firm showing Kerry within 4% in Virginia.

To be followed shortly by fundrasing letters saying...

"A recent poll shows [insert field 1] trails [insert field 2] by just [insert field 3%] despite spending almost no money in the state.

With your kind and much needed donation of just [insert field 4] we can defeat [insert field 2] and go on to victory in November...

[The Vorlon]

I suppose it's a further extension of the Lousiana/Colorado strategy: targeting states that they really shouldn't.

A lot of this is "buying" free advertising...

Spend a few hundred $K in strange places, and then get a few million in free and positive coverage as cnn/cbs/abc etc cover how the campaign is on the offensive and targeting gop leaning states, etc, etc..

Smart for Kerry, uses his natural advantages to his best benifit.

Bush might  try it in New Jersey and maybe Maine (he has no hope in Maine, but it's a cheap state to buy media in) if he thought there was a chance of some free media to go along with it.

[The Vorlon]

Wow, Vorlon, this map is much more Bush freindly than I would have expected, especially given all the negative coverage.  Why so?  Some "credible" organizations seem to think that Kerry has Bush falling back in a near rout.

Firstly, burn all the state polls that come out in the summer.  Don't bother even looking at them.  Use them to wrap fish or line your bird cage.  I know the odd Dem will accuse me of bias on this but I have been saying this for months....

in the summer, you should take the state polls and burn them..

This leaves the national polls, so lets look at them...

(Since most polls are going registered voters, that is what I will use, in a "head to head" where possible.)

Firstly, the Head to Head Registered is the LEAST favorable to Bush of all the choices...

Gallup has Kerry +2
TIPP has Kerry +1
Fox has it tied
Quinnipiac has it tied
ABC has Kerry +2
Rasmussen (based on today's coin flip) has it tied
CBS News  has Kerry +47, or + 23 or what ever (ok it's 8% head to head)
CNN/Time which had Kerry +5%
Zogby has Kerry +5
ARG had Kerry +5

Even if we leave in CBS and ARG, if you average them all, you get Kerry up 2.8% nationally using the LEAST favorable for Bush way of looking at things there is.  

Knock 0.8% off for Nader, and Kerry is up 2% (A "sane" guess I think for a Nader adjustment factor)

Next, Remember this is registered voters we are talking here -   Give the GOP base (Which while grumpy is still showing 90% Support for Bush) anything RESEMBLING good news and the traditional 3% or so GOP edge in a likely voter versus registered vote poll pops back..

Like Magic, Bush is up a point or two...

There is also some evidence that Bush is running a tad better in the Battleground states than he is nationally

    -The last Gallup national poll had Bush +5 in the Battlegrounds
    -Fox had Bush +4 in the Battlegrounds
    -TIPP had Bush +6 in the battlegrounds

While the sample sizes in the battleground part of these national polls is quite small (240-360 ish) the fact that ALL THREE say roughly the same thing  makes me marginally more likely to believe it is true.

Some perspective here - Even without tossing out the clearly Bull%^&t polls in the above calculation, Bush is Down 2.8%, hardly a meltdown.

Ohio was carried by Bush by 3% and a bit of change in 2000 in a race he lost by .51% nationally.  Shift the whole nation 1.5% from it's 2000 baseline and Bush is up 1 or 2% or so in Ohio.

The media frenzy just reflect their enthusiasm for a good story.. the actual shift in the polls has been about 4% or so.  Bush was up 2% or so, he is now down 2% or so.

The fundementals of the race have not changed.

PREDICTION - Bush will be up 2 or 3 in the next round of National polls.

At least that is my opinion.

[The Vorlon]

I think the map at www.electionproject.com is begining to show what is more likely than Vorlon's current projection.  And if you scrolled down and look at State of the States.

Really Close Bush States (5% or less)
53 Electoral Votes

Tennessee (11) - 2.39%
Arkansas (6) - 1.50%
Virginia (13) - 1.18%
Louisiana (9) - 1.08%
West Virginia (5) - 0.78%
Colorado (9) - 0.54%

Really Close Kerry States (5% or less)
70 Electoral Votes

Arizona (10) - 0.73%
Iowa (7) - 3.05%
Missouri (11) - 3.36%
Nevada (5) - 3.54%
Florida (27) - 3.70%
Wisconsin (10) - 4.10%

Begining to look really easy for Colorado and West Virginia to come into Kerry's fold.

Election day map.  The always optomistic.




and Georgia at 5.33 Bush advantage is awfully close to becoming one of the really close for Bush.

When Bush and Kerry are polling near even in Georgia - Bush better call U-Haul

Your link does not work, could you repost it please & thank-you! (Election Project)

[The Vorlon]

head to heads are not the whole story...especially before the conventions during a reelection year. The right track wrong track numbers and the Bush approval numbers have to be factored in.

And even when looking at head to heads, independent candidates always poll better than they actually do.

When you look at all the national numbers today
Bush in 3 way
Bush in 2 way
Bush approval
Right track

all are in mid to low 40s...with right track in the 30s.

Bush needs to get these numbers into the high 40s at least and really into the 50s if he is going to win.

I basically agree with you actually.

I posted a couple months ago that the polling number that jumps out at me is the "mismatch" between right track / wrong track and where Bush is.

These two numbers will eventually reconcile with one another.

Either Bush pulls away, or sinks like a rock

[The Vorlon]

Bush isnt leading in BG states

 latest (May 23) Gallup

...not Bush  +5, but Kerry +5  kind of different

You are correct

I had the May 13th gallup on my brain... Exact same mistake you made a few weeks back when you quoted the May 9th Gallup..

This time I am one poll out of step.

[The Vorlon]

well I guess we are even

but I would like to see proof that the other two BG polls show a Bush lead. The only other BG poll I saw this week was the (potentially dubious) Zogby which showed Kerry leading so far that Bush should just pack it in now.

Link to TIPP

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=200405181

Link to Fox

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=200505190

Lunar is right

with 2 showing up and 1 down.... it's meaningless

[The Vorlon]

So you agree that there are discrepencies with the BG polls (2 up and 2 down). Plus you agree that the right track and approval numbers should be factored in, and that those both show problems for Bush.

Then like other Republicans here, your predictions are 'faith based'....thats fine, but it certainly isnt a neutral objective observation

If you really want to make the case for Bush and pretend its objective, then go to jobs and economic numbers and not rely exclusively on cherry picking a few head to head polls 5 months before a reelection.

I averaged 10 polls in my post... hardly cherrypicking, other than an "insider advantage" that showed a tie, I think I used every single poll out there...

I even included CBS which is pro kerry by 6% versus the average of the other 9

If you were less stidently partisan your arguments would work better.

[The Vorlon]

So you agree that there are discrepencies with the BG polls (2 up and 2 down). Plus you agree that the right track and approval numbers should be factored in, and that those both show problems for Bush.

Then like other Republicans here, your predictions are 'faith based'....thats fine, but it certainly isnt a neutral objective observation

If you really want to make the case for Bush and pretend its objective, then go to jobs and economic numbers and not rely exclusively on cherry picking a few head to head polls 5 months before a reelection.

I averaged 10 polls in my post... hardly cherrypicking, other than an "insider advantage" that showed a tie, I think I used every single poll out there...

I even included CBS which is pro kerry by 6% versus the average of the other 9

If you were less stidently partisan your arguments would work better.

you agree that head to heads are not an indicator, yet you use them for your 'prediction', even using a flawed one. You agree that one should factor in right track and job approval, yet you ignore them.

I freely admint I am partisan, I like partisan people. And your predictions fit well into all the other Republicans who 'hope' for a Bush reelection, just stop pretending it isnt.

I have never said that.

You are making things up.

Of course head to head is an indicator.

Who people are going to vote for is NOT an indicator in your book?

[The Vorlon]

you agreed that head to heads are not the sole indicator

yet that is all you use to justify your 'prediction'...and even the head to heads dont show a Bush win.

and you agree that you shouldnt ignore the right track and the job approvals...yet your do ignore them for your prediction


Look I have no problem with hope based predictions....everyone here has one...and so do you.....just dont try to dress it up as anything else.


If Bush's numbers bounce back in June....then you can say it is numbers based....until then it is 'faith based'

Or maybe I have access to more numbers than you do, and understand them better....  

Have a great weekend..

[The Vorlon]

It is extreme but I think it is in the realm of possibility.  I don't believe that this will be a close election.  Despite (and actually maybe because of) all the attention that the split-country model has been getting in the media.  Bush or Kerry will untimately win in a landslide in November.  My model is simply and I think accurately what a Kerry landslide would look like.  Just like your prediction Soupersoulty, which I think is just as optomistic and perhaps realistic, is what a Bush landslide would like.

AHAHAHAHAHAHAHA  That's my prediction for a Santorum/Kucinich race.  You'd know if you had bothered to look.

Unrelated...

Your take on the Pennsylvania senate race?

Please & Thank-you!

[The Vorlon]

Or maybe I have access to more numbers than you do, and understand them better....  

Have a great weekend..

ahhhh....the fabled 'secret information' like that guy who had his secret 'inside info' on who's on the real Kerry Shortlist.

dude..I dont have a problem with you...just admit that your predictions are effected by your pro Bush bias just like everyone else. admitting you are biased is the first step....we are all biased....are we to assume that you are the only unbiased person (highly unlikely a lifelong Republican can suddenly become unbiased)

http://www.cleveland.com/news/index.ssf?/news/more/pd/05poll29.html

Ohio
Mason Dixon
1500 sample size
Bush +6

As I am sure you know, (because there is no way I could possibly have more information than you so I will just "remind" you)  this poll more or less agrees with the Terrance group poll showing Bush +4, and the Public Opinion Strategies poll showing Bush +3

Not everybody plays the same game as you.  Your game is that you support Mr. Kerry, my "game" is that I want to get every state right this year.

I am in a huge election pool with (currently) over 1200 other people and the prize fund is non-trivial.  

I'd like a nice big chunk of that pie

In a hockey pool, do you pick the players you "like" or the ones you think will score the most points?

I am not a huge fan of Detroit's Pavel Datsuk (weak in his own end, floats at the blue line) but I was quite happy to get him in the 6th round of my regular season hockey pool..

You are so partisan that the concept that somebody could not have a "horse in the race" is alien to you.  

I can accept that, I would hope that you can accept that there are those who have moved beyond a partisan universe into one where other things are valued.

I like that you have passion for your guy, I hope you register every single voter in your neighborhood and you do all you can to bring more people into the process.

That is your game, not mine anymore.  I have done my bit for God and Country as it were.

I just have a different set of rules that I play by relative to you.

BTW, there is another fellow on this board that is 100% convinced that I am pro-Kerry and a closet Democrat.

I should introduce you to each other.

Please have a nice weekend.  


Bush leads Kerry in new PD poll


Mark Naymik
Plain Dealer Politics Writer
5/29/03

President Bush leads John Kerry by 6 percentage points in the battle for Ohio, a state that could decide who wins the White House, according to a statewide Plain Dealer poll.

Ohio voters surveyed say they favor Bush over Kerry, 47 percent to 41 percent. Consumer advocate Ralph Nader draws 3 percent, though he has yet to qualify for the Ohio ballot. Nine percent say they are undecided.