Kerry expanding into Virginia

[khirkhib]

I think the map at http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2004.html is begining to show what is more likely than Vorlon's current projection.  And if you scrolled down and look at State of the States.

Really Close Bush States (5% or less)
53 Electoral Votes

Tennessee (11) - 2.39%
Arkansas (6) - 1.50%
Virginia (13) - 1.18%
Louisiana (9) - 1.08%
West Virginia (5) - 0.78%
Colorado (9) - 0.54%

Really Close Kerry States (5% or less)
70 Electoral Votes

Arizona (10) - 0.73%
Iowa (7) - 3.05%
Missouri (11) - 3.36%
Nevada (5) - 3.54%
Florida (27) - 3.70%
Wisconsin (10) - 4.10%

Begining to look really easy for Colorado and West Virginia to come into Kerry's fold.

Election day map.  The always optomistic.




and Georgia at 5.33 Bush advantage is awfully close to becoming one of the really close for Bush.

When Bush and Kerry are polling near even in Georgia - Bush better call U-Haul

Kerry      337
Bush      148
Toss Up  53

[khirkhib]

Fixed the link http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2004.html
and the toss up gif is better.
Really shows the contrast

[khirkhib]

I'm just assuming that he is going to sink like a rock.  I want to predict what the most likely Kerry sweep will look like.  I hope Kerry's own numbers go up after the Convention.

Kerry positive spikes.
Choose Vice President:  Mostly helps firm up non-party members and maybe gets a couple dissastified, regional Republicans.  Increases turn out for regional democrats.

Democratic Convention: strengthens the Democrat base

Nader: Does not get on many ballots, perhaps drops his bid and defers to Kerry.  Small bounce for Kerry from the Other section of the polls

Debates Presidential and the vice-presidential: Brings in votes from the Undecideds, nobody will really switch tickets on the debates.


Election Day: Undecideds vote for the challenger.

Bush's Long Slide:
June 30th: Whatever happens in Iraq US GIs will continue to die,  factions and terrorists will become more desperate and violent if it looks like they are losing out on the power grab.  If they do not become desperate they are winning in Iraq and US GIs will continue to die in greater numbers.

Republic Convention: Ill timed New York convention causes riots.  The Bush faithful will become more faithful (but they were going to vote anyway).  Leaves a bad taste in the mouths of the likely Bush voters and they become less likely to vote for Bush or become Undecided.  Bush makes a lot more promises  and it will become clear that they will not be kept.

Debates: By now I hope Kerry will have turned on.  Kerry will make Bush stand on his record and Bush will drop in numbers with Women voters.

Osama: Not found.  Loses more votes

Scandal: Yet to be determined early fall.  Likely become even less likely.  Even adamant supporters find better things to do than vote for Bush like polishing silver ware.

everything going Kerry's way unlikely but if we were to make bets today it always a good idea to realisticly look at the outliers.  I'm betting on double 0.

[khirkhib]

It is extreme but I think it is in the realm of possibility.  I don't believe that this will be a close election.  Despite (and actually maybe because of) all the attention that the split-country model has been getting in the media.  Bush or Kerry will untimately win in a landslide in November.  My model is simply and I think accurately what a Kerry landslide would look like.  Just like your prediction Soupersoulty, which I think is just as optomistic and perhaps realistic, is what a Bush landslide would like.

[khirkhib]

It is extreme but I think it is in the realm of possibility.  I don't believe that this will be a close election.  Despite (and actually maybe because of) all the attention that the split-country model has been getting in the media.  Bush or Kerry will untimately win in a landslide in November.  My model is simply and I think accurately what a Kerry landslide would look like.  Just like your prediction Soupersoulty, which I think is just as optomistic and perhaps realistic, is what a Bush landslide would like.

AHAHAHAHAHAHAHA  That's my prediction for a Santorum/Kucinich race.  You'd know if you had bothered to look.

P.S. Personally, given the very divided nature of the electorate and the EC, I do believe that this maybe the first re-election campaign since 1916 where one candidate doesn't totally blow the other off the map.

Come on Super how am i supposed to know if it is your real map.  Or your pretend Santorum/Kucinich map.  Though that was version 18 of the map you say nothing about it in the comment history. Comments History

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Is this your real map or is this a hypotetical map between two other candidates that will never be on the ballot for presidential election.

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php?action=indpred&id=1116

Before you diss my map, which I openly before the forum admit that it is unlikely though may be what a sweep scenario looks like, than post and defend your own map.

[khirkhib]

well as long as you are being scientific it's fine

[khirkhib]

BRTD I already started this debate with him too.  And he does seem to get very testy about his maps.  I think he means that out is some discussion some point in the past he explained his map so if you really wanted to know what the map meant you would look up all entries that he has made.  Or more specifally the entries that he made on the day that the map was produced and find the explanation that he posted with it.  Really simple actually and were lazy for not havind done it.