The New York poll

[Gustaf]

New Poll: New York Governor by Strategic Vision on 2006-04-23

There seems to be no topic for this one. I found it pretty interesting that Faso does better than Weld in these matchups. Might he be the nominee?

[© tweed]

He might be the conservative party nominee and Weld the Republican party nominee, putting them both on the ballot.  The insiders seem to be backing Faso.

[ElectionAtlas]

From Ballot Access News: New York Libertarians Nominate William Weld for Governor

The Libertarian Party in New York doesn't typically poll very well - and generally has poor ballot position (anyone know the ballot order for this year's election?).  Should Weld lose the Republican nomination, will Weld drop out / continue as a token ballot (similar to Andrew Cuomo on the Liberal Party line in 2002) or actively campaign on the Libertarian ballot?  Who will the Conservative party nominate?  Regardless, it seems like 1990 all over again... (solid Democratic candidate and multiple Republican/Conservative candidates) - in 1990, Jack London ran an active campaign on the Conservative ballot line due to general dissatisfaction with Pierre Rinfret (I even remember one London radio ad that literally called Rinfret a "joke").  London won 5 Counties with 20% of the vote.  Rinfret won 13 counties with 21% of the vote.  The Right-to-Life candidate split off another 3.4%.  Cuomo won the rest and took 53% of the popular vote.

[jerusalemcar5]

New Poll: New York Governor by Strategic Vision on 2006-04-23

There seems to be no topic for this one. I found it pretty interesting that Faso does better than Weld in these matchups. Might he be the nominee?

Upstate New York, where I live, is going fully behind Faso and is labeling Weld as out of stater who would have no idea how to run a state as large and mighty as New York seeing as he is from dinky Massachusetts.  I personally don't care since I support Spitzer either way.

[jerusalemcar5]

From Ballot Access News: New York Libertarians Nominate William Weld for Governor

The Libertarian Party in New York doesn't typically poll very well - and generally has poor ballot position (anyone know the ballot order for this year's election?).  Should Weld lose the Republican nomination, will Weld drop out / continue as a token ballot (similar to Andrew Cuomo on the Liberal Party line in 2002) or actively campaign on the Libertarian ballot?  Who will the Conservative party nominate?  Regardless, it seems like 1990 all over again... (solid Democratic candidate and multiple Republican/Conservative candidates) - in 1990, Jack London ran an active campaign on the Conservative ballot line due to general dissatisfaction with Pierre Rinfret (I even remember one London radio ad that literally called Rinfret a "joke").  London won 5 Counties with 20% of the vote.  Rinfret won 13 counties with 21% of the vote.  The Right-to-Life candidate split off another 3.4%.  Cuomo won the rest and took 53% of the popular vote.

I don't see Weld continuing if he loses the Republican nomination.  No way he wins conservative nomination.  Many races in New York have Republicans facing off against Conservatives because the NY GOP tends to be more moderate than conservativs and the Conservative Party would like.  Also, the Libertarians take Row F and don't take many votes.  If I recall, a party must receiev 50,000 votes in a statewide election in order to be a recognized party (which is why the Liberal party got kicked off a couple years back.)

[Smash255]

Its hard to say who will do better, they both will get demolished, but Weld is the only Republican that could win a race like this.  Faso will do better than Weld will upstate, but  weld will do better in the NYC suburbs.  The big thing here is much more than just who will serve up to be Spitzer's whipping boy in the General, other races will be key.  State Senate Races, State Assembly races will be interesting in downstate NY (some Congressional races as well).  The GOP still somehow holds all 9 State Senate Seats on Long Island.  weld stands a chance to at least be somewhat compeitive here, while Faso will get completley blown out of the water and as a result more state Senate Seats & Assembly Seats will probably flip with Faso on the ticket than Weld, due to more straight ticket voting

[ElectionAtlas]

New Info from Politics1

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Right-to-Life and Conservative ballot lines are already split.  I generally agree with jerusalemcar5 on upstate (we are actually both from Onondaga County - I just no longer live there - but get to visit often).  Weld plays much better in MA and probably NYC suburbs than in upstate. 

jerusalemcar5 - do you know the ballot order for all the parties in NY this year?

[minionofmidas]

New Info from Politics1

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Brother of a bestselling author, is more like it.

[jerusalemcar5]

Upstate New York plays a powerful (and probably unfair) importance in Republican party nominations.  Faso has already been nominated previously for comptroller and I see him winning the governor nomination. 

In response to Dave I do not know for sure the ballot order.  It is based on the amount of votes previously received (excluding Republican/Democratic), but I believe it will be:

Row A: Republican
Row B: Democratic
Row C: Conservative (like I said previously, the moderate Republicanism of the NY GOP isn't too popular among conservatives)
Row D:Independence
Row E:Obscure party 1
Row F: Libertarian
Remaining Rows: Obscure parties 2-infinity