Minnesota in 2004

[minionofmidas]

Another state that fits my guns vs gays theory reasonably well ... the whole gun control thing must've hurt Gore like hell in Northern Minnesota. Gay marriage didn't sell nearly as well among North Minnesota's ELCA Lutherans.
Meanwhile in the Twin Cities and the college towns and stuff, Nader was very popular (his support crumbled within the last couple of weeks, when people understood that both the nation and the state would be razor thin, yet he still took 5% statewide). Of course, college turnout was also low in 2000 and very high in 2004.
These factors combined to make Minnesota so very close in 2000 - the real question is why did some pollsters - some Vorlon approved pollsters even - think right up to election night that Bush might take the state? Shouldn't it have been obvious (by then; not talking of 3 months out) that it would be swinging back a bit? Just because of suburban growth?