PA-Gov: Swann by 3

[Reaganfan]

New Poll: Pennsylvania Governor by Rasmussen on 2006-04-20

Rasmussen Source

[Keystone Phil]

But once Diamond is thrown in, Swann is down by four and Diamond will almost definetley be on the ballot. The poll shows it...

Ed Rendell (D) 40%
Lynn Swann (R) 36%
Russ Diamond (I) 16%


Now I knew Diamond would cut into Swann's vote but I didn't expect it to be that much. I think 16% is a bit high even with the pay raise being a big issue here. That being said, Diamond's candidacy will have a big impact on this race and we'll likely see him break approach the double digits (not approaching 20%, though, if you ask me).

[J. J.]

Rendell has started to advertize in the Phila media market.

That is a good indication that his internals are showing a problem.

Go Swan!

[Keystone Phil]

Rendell has started to advertize in the Phila media market.

That is a good indication that his internals are showing a problem.

Go Swan!

I've mentioned the same thing (maybe not on the forum though). He has been advertizing in Philly along with Pittsburgh and Harriburg. If anything, this should be the time when he's up by ten or so.

[Moooooo]

Who the hell is Diamond?

[Speed of Sound]

Who the hell is Diamond?

Libertarian frequent candidate and activist. Began the PAC  PAClean sweep after the payraise made by state legislature.

[Sam Spade]

Remember, Rasmussen has done sponsored polls for the Libertarians before.

It wouldn't surprise me if this was one.

[jokerman]

So Diamond attracts the vote of libertarians and also conservatives who don't want to vote for some football celebrity who doesn't know what the hell he's doing.

I think Rendell will pull through.  Swann is going to embarass himself in the debates, I'm guessing.  Final result, after a full campaign

Rendell 46
Swann 40
Diamond 14

(without the cash that Rendell and Swann has I imagine Diamond is going to drop in support by the time the campaign has ended and the major party candidates have swamped the TV with advertisements, unless Diamond receives the endorsement of a major GOP politician, which I doubt.)

[Alcon]

Remember, Rasmussen has done sponsored polls for the Libertarians before.

It wouldn't surprise me if this was one.

Diamond is an independent, though, not a Libertarian.  Besides, they always indicated when they were polling for Libertarians.

[Sam Spade]

Remember, Rasmussen has done sponsored polls for the Libertarians before.

It wouldn't surprise me if this was one.

Diamond is an independent, though, not a Libertarian.  Besides, they always indicated when they were polling for Libertarians.

Not always.  There were a couple of polls in 2004 that Rasmussen took about 2 weeks before indicating they were Libertarian.  Besides, Diamond could have paid for the poll himself.

Maybe PA voters are unhappy enough with their government to have 7% of the undecideds move towards Diamond when included in the poll, but I simply find that fairly hard to believe.

Look, either my supposition is either correct or not.  Doesn't really matter in the end, as it is one poll and without corroborating polling isn't worth much.

[Alcon]

Remember, Rasmussen has done sponsored polls for the Libertarians before.

It wouldn't surprise me if this was one.

Diamond is an independent, though, not a Libertarian.  Besides, they always indicated when they were polling for Libertarians.

Not always.  There were a couple of polls in 2004 that Rasmussen took about 2 weeks before indicating they were Libertarian.  Besides, Diamond could have paid for the poll himself.

Maybe PA voters are unhappy enough with their government to have 7% of the undecideds move towards Diamond when included in the poll, but I simply find that fairly hard to believe.

Look, either my supposition is either correct or not.  Doesn't really matter in the end, as it is one poll and without corroborating polling isn't worth much.

I had forgotten that Rasmussen did that.  That's really frustrating.  Sorry about that.

[Keystone Phil]

Diamond is an independent, though, not a Libertarian.

For whatever reason, he's running as and Independent but he has always run as a Libertarian before.

So Diamond attracts the vote of libertarians and also conservatives who don't want to vote for some football celebrity who doesn't know what the hell he's doing.

I wouldn't jump to the conclusion that he doesn't know what he's doing just yet. Rendell is supposed to be such a smart guy but spends so much of his time during football season as a commentator. I'd rather have the football celebrity concentrating on being Governor than the Governor concentrating on on a game.