1980 - without Reagan

[CPT MikeyMike]

I'm not sure if this has been posted yet.

Suppose if Reagan didn't run in 1980 for whatever reason.

I think Carter would have been challenged by either of these 4 Republicans.

1. George Bush
2. John Connally 
3. Howard Baker
4. John Anderson

Personally, I think all 4 would have beaten Carter (I think Anderson would be a close call though). How do you think each of these guys would fair?

Please include maps for each! Thanks!

[adam]

It doesn't really matter, Carter was doomed regardless. Let's not forget that at the time Reagan was potrayed nothing more than alternative to a very bad administration. Anyone could have beat Carter.

[Lincoln Republican]

Carter went into the 1980 election with the voters having the perception that his had been a failed Presidency and that he was a failed President.

I agree that any credible Republican candidate, that is, one that could be taken seriously as Presidential material, would have defeated Carter.  This would include from your list certainly George Bush and Howard Baker.  I would add to this list of those who would have won Bob Dole as well.

John Connally is a possibility, but I would tend to discount John Anderson's chances.     

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

With hindsight, I'd vote Anderson over Carter just to avoid having any Reagan or Bush become President.

[CPT MikeyMike]

I'll do a map for all 4

Bush/Kemp: 365  53%
Carter/Mondale: 173 45%

I don't see Anderson running in this case.

Connally/Dole: 294 47%
Carter/Mondale: 244  45%
Anderson/Lucey: 0  6%

Anderson does run agaisnt Connally. Connally, being more conservative than Bush, beats Carter in the South but barely gets by in Pennsylvania and Ohio to win.

Baker/Anderson: 411  56%
Carter/Mondale: 127   42%

I see this as the best ticket (other than Reagan that would whip Carter)

Anderson/Bush: 287 49%
Cater/Mondale: 251  48%

Anderson drives away the souther base but California put him over the top.