Kerry leads in Iowa

[Michael Z]

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[opebo]

Exciting stuff, but I think Kerry is very unlikely to be able to win in the general election.  In fact he's the worst candidate after Dean of the 'possible' candidates (not counting Braun, Kucinich, Sharpton).  

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Agreed, (not counting Braun, Kucinich, Sharpton) Kerry is least likely to beat Bush.  

[Wakie]

Agreed, (not counting Braun, Kucinich, Sharpton) Kerry is least likely to beat Bush.  

I'm not so sure of that.  I'm not endorsing him, but I have seen polls before wherein they ask voters who they would vote for in a race of Bush vs Candidate X (wherein candidate X is one of the Democratic candidates).  Kerry scored surprisingly well head to head against Bush.  Much better than Leiberman and Gephardt.

[Gustaf]

That's major stuff. If Dean finish worse than second in Iowa, his campaign could die a quick death. *HOPING INTENSELY*

[TheWildCard]

This is interesting it would be amazing if Dean fell to 4th behind Kerry, Gephardt, and Edwards. But I still think Dean will come in first, Gephardt, Kerry and Edwards a very close close 2nd, 3rd and 4th.

[DarthKosh]

That's major stuff. If Dean finish worse than second in Iowa, his campaign could die a quick death. *HOPING INTENSELY*

He'd run third party.

[Wakie]

That's major stuff. If Dean finish worse than second in Iowa, his campaign could die a quick death. *HOPING INTENSELY*

He'd run third party.

Actually someone asked him that in an interview (if he would run as a 3rd party candidate if he didn't get the nom) and he said No.

[John]

well there are four more days left tell people go to the polls then they will chose who they want

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ahh! This years Iowa Caucus is great entertainment!
A Four Way statistical dead heat!
It's going to be decided by the undecided!

[Gustaf]

This is interesting it would be amazing if Dean fell to 4th behind Kerry, Gephardt, and Edwards. But I still think Dean will come in first, Gephardt, Kerry and Edwards a very close close 2nd, 3rd and 4th.

Yep, that would be great! What would happen if Dean did finish 4th? (I don't think he will, but there is obviously a possibility). Would his campaign crumble? Is it possible for him to lose NH if he loses big in Iowa? If he loses NH he is toast, but with a likely win there he might be able to hang on despite an Iowa loss. If Dean wins, Gephardt could fall down to third or fourth place and drop out.

[DarthKosh]

That's major stuff. If Dean finish worse than second in Iowa, his campaign could die a quick death. *HOPING INTENSELY*

He'd run third party.

Actually someone asked him that in an interview (if he would run as a 3rd party candidate if he didn't get the nom) and he said No.

Please he may say it but his ego will make him run third party.

[jravnsbo]

John has said it correctlly, good job!  4 days is a lifetime in politics with the poll a day system we are living with.

well there are four more days left tell people go to the polls then they will chose who they want

[© tweed]

A dean second place finish in Iowa to Kerry is merely a speed bump.  but if Edwards wins, it becomes more than that.

[jravnsbo]

if edwards win, whoa, the earth will shake.

If anyone but dean wins its a story, plus it could be a slugfest for months.  If they are all close they all are encouraged, except I still think Gephardt must win.  But if close he may hang in there till feb 3

A dean second place finish in Iowa to Kerry is merely a speed bump.  but if Edwards wins, it becomes more than that.

[Gustaf]

if edwards win, whoa, the earth will shake.

If anyone but dean wins its a story, plus it could be a slugfest for months.  If they are all close they all are encouraged, except I still think Gephardt must win.  But if close he may hang in there till feb 3

A dean second place finish in Iowa to Kerry is merely a speed bump.  but if Edwards wins, it becomes more than that.

This race might take an unexpected twist if Clark runs into trouble on Iraq-lies and Dean gets hurt badly in Iowa. Suddenly the two major candidates could be knocked down, and if Gephardt performs badly in Iowa, the whole picture might change completely.

[© tweed]

Gephardt, Kerry, and Edwards have to win Iowa, but Dean doesn't.  Edwards v. Dean would be an interesting race.

Does the GOP fear Edwards?

[Gustaf]

Gephardt, Kerry, and Edwards have to win Iowa, but Dean doesn't.  Edwards v. Dean would be an interesting race.

Does the GOP fear Edwards?

Dean is expected to win in Iowa by now, if he doesn't it will hurt him. Dean is running his campaign mostly on momentum, if he loses that things could turn sour very quickly. Also, if Clark is hurt and Gephardt drops out, it might limit the field enough for one of the remaining candidates to take on Dean.

[jravnsbo]

Don'tcha love politics, it all can change so quickly.

if edwards win, whoa, the earth will shake.

If anyone but dean wins its a story, plus it could be a slugfest for months.  If they are all close they all are encouraged, except I still think Gephardt must win.  But if close he may hang in there till feb 3

A dean second place finish in Iowa to Kerry is merely a speed bump.  but if Edwards wins, it becomes more than that.

This race might take an unexpected twist if Clark runs into trouble on Iraq-lies and Dean gets hurt badly in Iowa. Suddenly the two major candidates could be knocked down, and if Gephardt performs badly in Iowa, the whole picture might change completely.

[jravnsbo]

I said I think he would be the most formidable of the 9, well 8 now.  He just doesn't have the baggage that the others do.  His weakness is inexperience in politics, but get past that with some good ideas and sell that to people and could be formidable.

Fear no, I still say its Bush's to lose, but edwards is the most formidable IMO.

Gephardt, Kerry, and Edwards have to win Iowa, but Dean doesn't.  Edwards v. Dean would be an interesting race.

Does the GOP fear Edwards?

[Gustaf]

I would pretty much agree on that. I like Edwards, and I think he could use the inexperience thing, running as an outsider, Carter-style.

I said I think he would be the most formidable of the 9, well 8 now.  He just doesn't have the baggage that the others do.  His weakness is inexperience in politics, but get past that with some good ideas and sell that to people and could be formidable.

Fear no, I still say its Bush's to lose, but edwards is the most formidable IMO.

Gephardt, Kerry, and Edwards have to win Iowa, but Dean doesn't.  Edwards v. Dean would be an interesting race.

Does the GOP fear Edwards?

[jravnsbo]

Gep needs to win or close 2d to survive and move on.  IF this happens he stays for a long while picking up MO and ND on Feb 3.

Kerry- needs a 3rd at minimum, anything extra is a bib boost heading into NH.  Maybe "lurch" is lurching back!

Dean- Needs win, or close 2d-3rd would be devastating.  But then again he still has a lot of money and could be int he race a long while.

Edwards- a close 4th ina tight field would be decent, anything higher is a boost and beats expectations.

If Dean doesn't win or is close this could be a long nominating process.

[© tweed]

Edwards v. Bush:

Bush 276 to Edwards 262

[DarthKosh]

Edwards v. Bush:

Bush 276 to Edwards 262

How would Bush win Maine and not Ohio.

[© tweed]

Edwards is more appealing to the midwest than the northeast, resulting in losses in the two most conservative NE states.